dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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Yucatan got a break with the weakening yesterday afternoon. Shows that systems with small cores are prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity. Center should only be over land for 4-6 hours it appears, depending on exact track. Still unclear how much re-strengthening will occur in the Gulf, as we know how unreliable intensity forecasts can be. Models still pretty set on Delta to be weakening on landfall due to shear + cooler shelf waters, which is very reasonable.
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Last two model runs shifted Mexico landfall a bit south. Greater threat of direct eyewall impacts may be Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen. Further South would also mean more time over land before it gets into the Gulf.
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only 18-20 hrs before it hits land. not enough time for ERC I don't think.
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Eye is very small so area of strongest winds will be small. No question they are at high risk of a direct hit given track seems clustered with little variance until Yucatan landfall. NHC now calling for 140 mph at Mexico landfall.
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Regardless of effects on the Gulf Coast, this is looking like it could be a bad hit to the NE Yucatan. Would be worst hit for that area since Wilma in 2005.
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If without considering shear, shelf temps in the northern GOM are barely 26C. Even if it becomes a major, the water temps would make a major at landfall very unlikely. 12z intensity guidance has a weakening cat 1 at landfall. Hurricane Lili might be a possible Analog to Delta in this regard.
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Current NHC track mostly avoids the cold eddy in the Central Gulf and minimizes travel time over cooler water prior to any Gulf Coast landfall. Further east=weaker due to to Cuba interaction and lower SST/heat content. Delta will also be moving much faster than Sally. But the cooler shelf waters should make any landfall stronger than NHC forecast unlikely, plus it will likely be starting to weaken before landfall, even before considering any shear.
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Short term question is interaction with the Yucatan which would obviously hinder development. Longer term good chance this gets sheared apart in the Gulf. Most models just kill it once it gets into the GOM with just the low level remnant circulation moving west.
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In the short term, is is apparent that nationwide hospitalization numbers have stopped falling and are now up slightly week over week. Hospitalizations are now close to the previous low point back in June, which implies we are probably catching more cases ( I haven't read of any evidence the virus is weakening yet). What actually happens in the next few months depends on many variables, including human behavior, percentage of the population with some immunity, and potential seasonal influences (i.e. temperature, humidity, maybe body Vitamin D levels). Regarding potential seasonal effects it is important to remember that the exact mechanism behind flu seasons are not settled science, so a lot of worries about the fall/winter are based on historical patterns of infection from influenza and common cold coronaviruses.
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Houston is just a magnet for heavy rain from tropical systems. The 10-12" max rainfall in the last 18 hours just happens to be in SW Harris County.
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Obviously can't be sure, but usually once you start getting cold fronts into the Gulf it usually means the end of the season there.
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Looks like we finally have a bit of a quiet period coming up, thankfully. MDR season might be about over. Probably have an uptick in activity early October, my guess is the Gulf might be about done for the year (hopefully).
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Am guessing the expectation is drier air will cut down on the precip?
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Really need a backup list of names that is used in this case. Some of the later Greek letters sound a lot alike also, Zeta, Eta, Theta, would be rather confusing if those storms were active at the same time. When 2005 happened, people assumed having that many storms would not repeated any time in the near future.
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Ophelia went extratropical 9-12 hours before hitting Ireland. Vince in 2005 was downgraded to a TD just before landfall in Spain.
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I agree technically its worthy of classification, just figured they would add this as unnamed STS post-season
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Shocked they bothered naming this....literally about to make landfall
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Generally it seems this will stay weak, Biggest concern would be stalling near a populated area on the TX coast.
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SST's in the Mediterranean Sea in that area are about 28C. Certainly warm enough to support a TC. Some of these type of stormed have formed in the winter months, with lower SST's than usually required for Tropical Cyclones. In many ways like 2005's Hurricane Epsilon, with colder temps along likely allowing for their formation. These storms (like Epsilon) often show eye features at lower wind speeds than seen in deeper warm core systems.
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By wind speed yes, by pressure no (Katrina was 920 mb at landfall).
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Odds we go into Greek letters this year? Assuming we get the Rene shortly that leaves only 4 names left.
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Yes, There was a backlog of cases which resulted in a data dump.
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Technically 156+ is a 5, but its basically semantics
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Best hope is the core goes somewhere relatively unpopulated, like between Port O'Connor and Freeport. Models have been too far the right in the short term last few runs
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Ike gave us the guy in the bear suit , Harvey gave us the blue shed
