dan11295

Obviously if Josephine forms now still we will still be ahead of 2005 pace wise. Next storm in 2005 was named on Aug. 24 (We know what storm that was). I agree we did have many short lived weak TS's so far. 2005 already had a Cat 5 (Emily) at this point. So ACE wide 2020 is behind 2005.

Was looking at pics from Cedar Rapids area, some significant structural damage from wind, vehicles blown over. Report from Marshalltown, IA of 100 cars with windows blown out.

I agree the this event was underwhelming ORH east in interior Mass pretty much but 50 mph gusts is what guidance was showing for this area. But that is fine with me. With still 3.5M customers without power on the eastern seaboard some people are going to be without it for a while. Certainly would not call this event a bust for New England as whole. People have to remember some were expecting this to degenerate into a naked swirl off Florida and it turned into a Cat 1 NC landfall and a bit of a mess for the northeast corridor.

337k is their total customers, that have 86k out. 300k statewide.

NY outages really started to spike in past 10 minutes. Still rising in NJ & PA (I am sure the excessive rainfall in PA hasn't helped them there).

Per PNS many 60-70 mph gusts in New Jersey, with some spot higher gusts.

Stronger winds getting into NYC metro now. 650k out now in NJ . 1.5M out from NC north.

405k out in New Jersey now. Numbers haven't jumped in New York yet.

Must be getting some strong winds in NJ, outages continuing to jump there, 272k out now.

Power outages in NJ jumped by another 65k in last 10 minutes.

Some heavy rains down in MD, 8"+ totals being reported now.

First TOR warning in Mass.

Lots of tornado warnings ongoing, significant threat with Isaias. Appears some of these are not just your TC spinups either. multiple TOR's overnight with TDS on radar.

Seeing reports in main tropical thread also of significant surge

Sustained winds upped to 85 mph SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Most "Tropical Storms" around here are ET-transitioning systems curving away from Cape Cod which give rain and really no wind to speak of. Even though this will not a strong storm at landfall down south, the track of Isaias combined with the jet enhancement at least make it a bit more interesting.

Buoy down to 989 now w/15kt wind. Also suggests 987 mb right now

I do say the radar presentation looks the best it has in a while, plus recon appears to show a pressure fall.

11 am NHC Discussion mentions baro enhancement keeping the storm from weakening too fast, even though the track actually shifted a tad west and is now basically entirely inland after landfall Current westerly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt is expected to decrease somewhat during the next 12 h and also become more southwesterly, which will be in better alignment with Isaias' forward motion vector. The decrease in the shear should result in less tilt to the cyclone, allowing Isaias to strengthen and regain hurricane status just before making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.

E. CT/RI E+SE Mass gets some good gusty winds, particularly coastal areas but nothing too crazy IMHO.

How far East can this go? Is a miss to the SE still a real option? Then there is the issue of how strong. This storm is going to remain sheared and will probably be undergoing ET transition are our latitude.

Saw some limb damage in Stow driving into work this morning, couple side roads closed. Heard the thunder last night but missed the winds at home.

It was time for it to go IMHO, it had outlived its usefulness.

when is the last time anyone on the Cape got this much snow so late?

Btw, Really ugly right now in SC, damaging TOR's ongoing. Rough night in GA and TN as well, energetic system for sure.