dan11295

We have to remember the initial vaccinations will targeted for HC workers, first responders, etc. It wont be until we get significant vaccination of at risk, elderly population that vaccination will meaningfully impact numbers

I suspected the apparent drop yesterday was a holiday effect. The effects on testing and death reporting is obvious. Going to be some nasty data dumps during next week.

Going to be a rather ugly data dump if not today then early next week. Probably about 1600 backlogged deaths from Thursday/Friday.

Covid Tracking Project showed nationwide hospitalizations dropping by 600 today. although the rates of increase for cases/hospitalizations has slowed, I suspect that drop is an artifact connected to the holiday. Take Texas, supposedly -200 today. Doesn't jive with their case trends prior to Thursday. It is obvious how much the holiday effected case/death reporting as well. Next 2 weeks will have messy data. depressed numbers first have of week, then potentially an artificial spike due to backlog catchup late next week (not this is too early to see holiday effects). Dec 7-11 is when you would see any holiday impact on numbers.

We are certainly catching greater than 1 in 8 now. In the spring it was much less, but not now. I don't think 80% of North Dakota has had it, for example.

Of course in some areas of the country stores may slack off on enforcing occupancy rules. More foot traffic in enclosed spaces = greater risk, especially if people spend a lot of time in the stores. Not as risky as in person T-day dinner but its certainly there. Some of the spread in the El Paso area for example was linked to big box stores. Between the travel, holiday gatherings and now start of shopping season. Then everyone goes back to work in a few days.

Was thinking about the start of holiday stopping season as well. Obviously a portion of the population will avoid the stores, but many wont. One question is how well will stores enforce capacity restrictions? They might be reluctant as they don't want to lose the ability to make a sale but making them wait outside for a long time. Too many people shopping and spending lots of time in the store increases the risk.

Many states are not reporting for Thanksgiving. Even some that are probably will have limited county level data.The combination of closed testing sites, closed labs, etc. will cause numbers to be artificially lower for 4-5 days at least (See Labor Day). With testing capacity so strained right now I would think the effects on numbers would be even worse.

Would make sense if most of that data is from yesterday. It will become more apparent in the coming days. Multiple states aren't going to report today (I know Mass. isn't).

I see 5 states with hospitalization declines in the past week: ND, WI, MO, NE, IA. None of those states have enacted any restrictions of substance.

Wisconsin and Michigan both came it with much lower numbers at least.

Ohio was not impacted as much as nearby states (IL/MI/PA) in the spring, probably due to Cleveland not being as much of a travel hub as Detroit and Chicago, and the PA cases were mostly in the eastern part of the state. They never had more than 1100 hospitalized in spring or summer. They have 4500 now and rising.

Yea a short term evaluation of potential weather impacts on case trajectory will be difficult with Thanksgiving tomorrow. Cases from gatherings wont show until 2nd week of December,

Illinois came in with over 11,000 today, you wonder if the weather turning colder again ~2 weeks ago was a factor.

Unfortunately I think weekday deaths will be 2000+ for the next few weeks going forward.

Both events are/were outdoors and generally involve brief periods of contact. A little bit different then sitting down for 45 minutes at a restaurant or a 3-4 hour indoor social gathering. Getting exposed to very small number of viral particles is not generally believed to cause an infection. Outdoor ventilation is generally very effective at diluting viral concentrations.

Just so much going on with Thanksgiving this week that has potential to aggravate the situation: College kids coming home. Lots of travel. Significant among of large multi-family gatherings are still going to occur, which will often include older relatives. Also don't know how well stores will enforce capacity limits etc. for holiday shopping.

Didn't think it would be, but California....not good.

Basically all of the mid-upper plains and MN, WI, IL, MI are showing signs of a short term decline in case load now, though hospitalizations is still rising a bit in IL, MI & MN. Most states outside of that group are still showing increases. May get a bit of decline followed by an undulating plateau with case numbers with numbers impacted by things like states limiting transmission vectors and events like Thanksgiving. Partial herd immunity will be becoming a factor in some states as well

Ohio was dumping their backlogged data most likely. Trends in Ohio are still not good. 4350 hospitalized now (almost +200 today)

Both Minnesota and Illinois had good drops in case numbers from last Monday. Continues to imply numbers have peaked in the region. But other regions are still increasing.

Some of the data this week (I know The holiday will mess up the reporting some) might tell us if the abnormal warm spell was a factor in reducing transmission. Am looking at states like Iowa in particular, where their 7-day average dropped starting November 16 with no meaningful restrictions put in place to affect numbers. That is about 13 days after the warm up started, which is about the time lag for infection>symptoms>tested>results. If their numbers stabilize or rise this week along with some other states in the area, it would be strong evidence of that. If they continue to fall then other factors are at work.

Yes I know that. Put at least there are some encouraging signs in the numbers. going forward.

Even when the missing state reports are added tomorrow, today will be about the same as last Sunday. Nationally positivity rates have stabilized and have begun to fall. Trends are suggesting a peak is occurring in the numbers overall, and hospitalizations should peak early next week.. Peak is occurring a bit quicker than I expected, tbh. Obviously, stuff like Thanksgiving gatherings could at least temporarily stop any declines. Some states will still be rising in cases, and the next few weeks will have some ugly numbers. But I think there is a good chance overall numbers are on the decline as we go through December through a combination of partial herd immunity is some hard hit upper Midwest states and more aggressive restrictions in some others. Future spike could also flare up during the winter depending on other events like Christmas, etc.

The per capita numbers in the Dakotas are so bad. Both now in top 10 per capita deaths, only behind the the northeast and LA/MS.The pure numbers are low so people tend to gloss over them sometimes.