dan11295

I think at this point we know certain situations result in higher risk of both transmission and super spreader events. being indoors, not wearing a mask, not having good indoor ventilation when indoors, and amount of time spent indoors/in proximity to someone exposed are all factors. This is why an outdoor protest where high percentage wear masks results in much lower transmission then sitting down and eating at a restaurant and casual indoor social gatherings. A short trip to the grocery store assuming all wear masks (they do here in Mass.) has fairly minimal risk IMHO. I am only in there 15-20 minutes if I know what I am buying when I go in. Duration of potential exposure is important.

This already basically happened in the El Paso area. They had to fly patients elsewhere in Texas and it is very likely standard of care in the city suffered. They still have 1100 hospitalized in the El Paso area w/~1500 cases/day. Capacity issues are now starting to show up in many other areas, with the Plains and upper Midwest in worst shape and OH Valley not far behind.

Over 8% of the state has tested positive, and they have the 8th worst per capita deaths in the U.S. Only the northeast states and LA/MS are worse.

You already had the FBI uncover a plot to kidnap the Governor. To call this irresponsible is putting it mildly.

Some per capita case comparisons to EU Countries: U.S. 7-day case average is 148,000 cases/day or 448/million. UK: 353/million Spain: 415/million (late October peak) France: Approx. caseload on Oct. 23, 5 days before lockdown announced Italy: Approx. caseload on Nov. 2, 2 days before lockdown announced.

Washington, Oregon, New Mexico have all shut indoor dining statewide along with some other businesses. They are by far the most aggressive with their actions so far. Of course they only account for less than 3% of the national caseload right now.

Quite possible on Friday. At some point we will hit a wall on testing numbers due to lab capabilities. Some places are already starting to limit testing of asymptotic people unless they have been exposed to a confirmed positive etc.

These Governors are in a bind. With no Federal support shutting businesses will result in many going under (many already have). No one wants to try to order people to stay home for Thanksgiving, even the ones who would otherwise consider it politically palatable. Also you have two states in the Lakes Region (Wisconsin & Michigan) those governors are essentially blocked from shutting anything down due to court rulings.

EDIT 175k and counting.....

The Church stuff is all about Freedom of Religion. Unfortunately that clashes with the know fact that churches are a known common place of spread.

Cases have been ramping up nationwide since the middle of October. Events like Halloween and those celebrations are just potential aggravating factors

Clear trend right now is for state/local governments to gradually pull back on indoor dining/in person schooling add mask mandates when not present and issue "advisories" which have no legal force to try to encourage people to limit their contacts with others. Question is what percentage of people are going to change their behavior based on these "recommendations?" Many people just aren't going to listen.

PA cases really starting to ramp up, over 6k today (although 500 of that was backlog from Philly).

Interesting the interior Southeast has had lowest overall Rt. I am guessing that's due to less indoor gatherings compared to other states which have experienced cooler weather already. But clearly temperature isn't everything. Southern California (until last 2-3 day), Arizona & Florida are rising again, and haven't experienced cold weather. Also MS, GA have rising hospital/case numbers now so they are clearly have Rt>1.0 now too.

How long is average time between exposure and cases being reported? My guess is 10-14 days. So next 2-3 days would be that time frame

When was the last time there was 3 active TC's in November?

Illinois just passed their Spring hospitalization peak today as well, and they were significantly impacted then.

I don't think grocery stores are a significant transmission area, assuming everyone is wearing masks. You are only in there for a limited period of time. Longer time inside=higher potential viral load. With a dine in restaurant you are in there longer and you have to talk off your mask to eat. Both increase exposure.

Ugh those are April peak type numbers. Hospitalized +300 in Illinois. Jeez. They have now surpassed their April Hospitalization peak.The entire region is in trouble. 5000 new cases in Indiana today as well.

The cases being reported right now are from exposure 8-10 days ago at least, which was before the warm up in the central/eastern US. Wont be for another week to see if the 5-6 warmer days will reduce transmission rates some (hopefully). While certainly the cooler weather is the second half of October has driven more people indoors and might explain the Upper Midwest spiking first, it doesn't explain everything. Cases/hospitalizations have started going back up in places that haven't gotten cold, like Southern California and Florida. Also the OH Valley spikes were initiated in first half of October, when temps weren't much cooler than this past week (60s-70s).

Seems like the go-to measure in most states in the 10 person indoor gathering limit and shutting restaurants at 10 pm. CT, MA & RI have that here in the Northeast. Not sure how effective these measures will be. Seeing a lot of pressure on hospitals now especially in the Plains. Current cases/pop: US 375/million, UK 337/million (on plateau), Spain 374/million (on plateau) France: 715/million (probably on plateau now, they have had issues with delayed test data) Italy 557/million (still spiking) Germany 218/million (on plateau). UK current death rate is ~1750/day for U.S. population, For Spain is ~1950/day (and their time lagged CFR's are close to the U.S.). IMHO this is highly likely where we heading in about 3 weeks.

Masks are not going to protect you 100%, especially if you are in close contact with someone indoors for hours with poor ventilation. Even in that situation they can reduce viral load though,

Illinois is rapidly approaching their April hospitalization peak (5036). They are now at 4742 (+1178 last 7 days). Most other states in the region are also seeing rapid spikes in hospitalizations. Very few states in US not with increasing hospitalizations. Nationwide hospital numbers 61,964 (+2690). Most summer spike hot spots in the south are now trending up again. Suggests that while generally cooler weather driving people indoors may have put "fuel on the fire" in some areas esp. in north, that is not only case driver. . (Note: much of US has seen abnormally warm temps past week wonder if that helps drop the transmission rate some. With sun setting early w/cooler evening temps, people are still going to be driven indoors in evening. This combined with high levels of community spread already may limit any benefit. Region is going back to normal temps in a couple of days.)

At least Theta isn't a U.S. threat. Having Eta and Theta active at the same time is confusing enough as it is.

Yeah 97L probably gets named today. Gotta watch the Caribbean again too.