dan11295

Looking at the Ohio data, its a mixed bag with continued high numbers of cases (10k+ past 2 days) and rising positivity yet hospitalizations have started to steadily fall past 4 days. Indiana is very similar.

Has to be better than that now. 10.8% of ND has tested positive. no way ~85% has been exposed would be beyond expected herd immunity levels. 1 in 4-5 today is a better estimate.

Flipping to snow here in Maynard, coating on grass.

Still trying to explain how the numbers in places like WI/IA have come down so much with no mitigation. Maybe its just something in now epidemics waves work. Even without true herd immunity you can have a peak caused by herd resistance following by at least a short term decline. Wave started in upper Midwest and propagated through rest of the country. Basically everywhere outside of that region is continuing to spike. With many high population states involved (e.g. PA, NY, CA) they will offset any Midwest declines for now. Also of note: VA/NC/SC/AZ all had record numbers of cases today.

Real effects from Thanksgiving should start showing up starting about now. A lot of tests from Wednesday are now starting to come back, which would be 1-2 days after many people would get symptoms (which would be 4-5 days after Thanksgiving generally).

Still rain here in Maynard, but if snow in Westborough should flip soon, am low elevation so maybe not quite yet.

Wonder if they are a bit too bullish on metrowest. Could very easily bust low here IMHO.

Ugh @ California 24,000 cases, including 8700 in LA County

From Covid Tracking: - New cases: 224,831 - Positivity rate: 12.4% (+0.8) - In hospital: 101,276 (+609) - - In ICU: 19,858 (+416) - New deaths: 2,563 Noticed the high ratio of ICU vs overall hospital increase. Could be another indication that hospitals are restricting admissions to sicker patients?

Over 10k cases again in IL, but another good drop (-200) in total hospitalized. Following trends of adjacent states like MN/WI/IN as far as hospital numbers. Drops like this should keep the nationwide hospital number from going up as much (in addition to capacity issues limiting admissions in some places).

Watching Arizona now too. 2900 in hospital (+100 today) vs 3400 July peak. But in July they less in hospital for non-Covid emergencies due to their demographics (seasonal elderly population). Also in the summer they were able to send patients to Colorado and New Mexico. Not really an option now.

One thing I am watching is whether the plains/upper Midwest states which have seen the case, positivity & hospital numbers drop see that trend stop or reverse due to Thanksgiving. Will know that starting next week. Positive rate appears to be rising again in IN based on preliminary data. Outside of this area trends are just bad. PA had over 10k cases again today +150 hospitalized.

Haven't read much lately on risk of transmission from surfaces. Obviously we now know aerosol is primary transmission method. But risk is certainly greater now with more widespread transmission/cooler and drier air.

So its anything from nothing to over a foot for my area. could really bust either way. Comes down to how quickly it gets going/how warm,

Down by 70 per the dashboard. Thats just new people admitted. Doesn't factor discharges or deaths.

In hospital: 100,667 (+441) Very muted hospital increase today. Probably a combination of things: Rate of increase in cases last week was lower. Some areas in upper Midwest have seen their numbers go down some. Am also guessing in some areas many patients that would previously have been hospitalized are not actually being admitted.

Here in Mass. the main Sewage Treatment plant for metro Boston keeps track of the amount of SARS-Cov-2 Viral RNA is the wastewater, and the graph just had a major spike. This is through 12-3. That spike is too soon to show up in reporting testing yet.

Going to be 5 states with 10k cases today.

Anyone exposed last Thursday would typically get symptoms early this week. So they would be getting testing around now. So those cases would start to appear early next week.

Another fairly high numbers day for IL, 10,959 cases 191 deaths. On a positive sign hospital numbers continue to drop some off the latest peak, fell by 100 today to under 5700.

Yikes at Pennsylvania. Over 10k new cases. 5071 hospitalized (+90)

I suspect in many locations practical capacity limits are being approached, regardless of how many open beds a state says it has on a dashboard. You can open overflow facilities but without adequately trained staff they are limited in usefulness. Already reading reports about patients who might normally be hospitalized being sent home with oxygen and a pulse oximeter if their oxygen saturation level isn't too low.

-In hospital: 100,226 (+1,535) -In ICU: 19,396 (+408) The high ICU/overall ratio of the increase would imply hospitals are only taking more severe cases in general now.

Really an overflow facility. I was using the term loosely.Its not outdoors lol

Just came in with 4600 cases here in Mass. ugh. Looks like some of that may have been a backlog from yesterday though, but positivity is trending up, (~7% if college tests are excluded). Still have relatively low hospitalizations per capita compared to most other states, including CT & RI to our south. RI just opened a field hospital today.