dan11295

14,300 in LA County today. Going to be 45k for CA on Worldometer

I thought that was yesterday, with 7k of that being a backlog

Wonder how rare this reaction is? Haven't heard of this showing up in trials AFAIK

Latest disco was talking higher amounts rt 2 corridor. looks like a big sucker hole atm. Looks like good stuff might be about done here. Probably tack on a few more inches with like-mod stuff though.

Look like about to get sucker holed here.

8.3" a bit less than mike or seminole even though im about midway between Westborough and Burlington.

Heavy snow here now, had 6.5" at 330 am when I cleared. About to go measure again,

6.2" here in Maynard at about 240 am.

Might be a bit quicker if they can get LTC facilities focused, as they are responsible for ~33% deaths. but everything in the next 5-6 weeks is pretty much baked in,

Yes the numbers are going down in the upper Midwest and Plains, that's how epidemic waves work. Rise, peak and fall. Per capita, Wisconsin has gotten off a bit easier than say, the Dakotas or Iowa. The Dakotas have some of the worst morality rates in the entire country, despite having very little impact from it through the summer and having access to better treatment than in the Spring.

I came home and saw that and thought LA County reported early or something, when i saw that they didn't I was like wtf. LA County just reported 21,400 cases!!!. I read there was a bit of a backlog but they were already reporting 10k+ daily. Hospital: 15,886 (+688) ICU 3,297 (+104). The rise in hospitalizations is steeper than last week.This is rapidly becoming the worst situation anywhere in the country.

They are having a rough time, more hospitalized in PA (6375) now than in Illinois at peak and higher average deaths/day as well. Higher than their spring peak as well, despite advances in treatment. the lower CFR now has had more to do with testing more people than treatment advances.

California is now 3rd per capita in the U.S. in cases/day, behind Tennessee and Rhode Island., with a much larger population.

Interestingly we had a fairly significant drop in cases compared to last Tuesday, like 12-13k less, maybe coming off to Thanksgiving surge?

Probably a good bet the northeast snowstorm is going to mess with the numbers some. Nationwide I think the case numbers have about peaked. Much of the Plains/Upper Midwest from Colorado to Michigan is falling in case numbers and hospitalizations. Obviously once you get outside those areas you have areas still surging. In hospital: 112,816 (+2,267)

California 15,199 (+610) hospitalizations today

IL was flat with their hospital number today. OH up slightly

A few states already show some notable jumps in hospital numbers today, including PA (+300), NC (+180) and FL (+250)

https://deadline.com/2020/12/los-angeles-covid-19-l-a-just-56-adult-icu-beds-left-orange-county-0-icu-1234656346/ Good overview of the situation in Southern California.

Eradication of the virus is not going to happen. What most likely happens is at some point the virus adapts to humans more and will become endemic like other coronaviruses. It will then generally produce mild symptoms in most people and wont need a vaccine for it. I.e. it WILL become "another cold". This could take many years. The 1890 pandemic which has been postulated as being caused by coronavirus in a couple of papers, had waves over 4-5 years. By the way, the mortality pattern of that event closely resembled Covid. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29336941/ "Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000)"

What is going on with Tennessee? Over 10k cases two days in a row. That's very high for their population.

Virtually impossible to avoid spillover into the older demographics when you have that level of spread.

Numbers are continuing to come down in IN/IL/MI/WI/MN. Thanksgiving holiday didn't seem to impact infection curve much here. Hospitalizations are falling in the region albeit slowly. States south and east of the region are still rising. Nationwide we are probably entering a broad peak. Once CA stabilizes (should be soon) we should peak nationwide. But its going to be a brutal 4-6 weeks.

One point with the vaccine that is relevant here is it takes a few weeks to develop immunity after getting vaccinated from what I have read, plus the second shot for better efficiency. Usually that isn't much of an issue but in this case you have widespread community transmission ongoing. Between this, the fact it is takes time to actually get the vaccinations done, and the time lag in data reporting. It is going to take time for the vaccinations to meaningfully impact the numbers. probably talking toward end of January to early February to meaningfully impact CFR numbers at all. Cases won't drop (more than they would without a vaccine) meaningfully until you start getting vaccinations into portions of the general population. That isn't happening until probably for at least a few weeks.

Just not going to happen. Everything became too political. Plus a lot of people have kind of "checked out" over the virus and still having large social gatherings etc. Reading how in California some restaurants are still doing indoor dining despite the Governor's orders as enforcement is spotty (and they are trying to stay in business in many cases, so I can't see I entirely blame them). Its really hardly a shutdown there compared to the shutdowns in many states in April.