dan11295

West side of N.O. will probably have minimal damage due to asymmetric nature of Zeta.

This was a lot different than watching Sally move 2 mph for a day.

New Orleans hasn't seen its strongest winds yet. looks like new band formed in eyewall just SW of the city.

Three landfalling Cat 2+ hurricanes in Louisiana this year. Two with Greek names! Plus two 12 miles apart in landfall location.

Strongest winds are on the East/SE side right? They (N.O.) should miss the strongest winds I think. Places like Belle Chasse i think get whacked pretty good i think,

Its fairly common, but not always true. Laura didn't have a weak south side.

I am sure they will look at Zeta in post analysis for potential upgrade. As said, makes no difference as to the current impacts. Many people are going to get a lot more than they were expecting wind wise.

MS Gulf Coast needs to watch out for the winds too, this isn't going to weaken much before they get the SE quad.

With the storm strengthening on approach and fast forward speed this is going cause wind issues a good ways inland I would think.

I am hopeful New Orleans avoids the strongest winds mostly since they may avoid the SE quad

Isaac was an 80 mph storm though.

Maybe this with track over city keeps strongest winds to east of New Orleans?

Almost certainly not weakening atm with that presentation on IR. Can see south side of eye on radar also, so its not the "half-a-cane" look that you had with Delta on approach, at least right now. At least with the fast movement duration of winds will be short. Bit unfortunate for New Orleans that it looks to go right over them.

Was looking at some state metrics and California is one of very few states still seeing a decline in hospitalizations. Most of the other states heavily impacted in summer,, i.e. Arizona, Georgia & Florida, have begun to see some upward movement on their numbers again in the past week. Now only 1-2 states seeing declines in cases/hospital numbers. This makes the current surge very different from the Spring (uncontrolled spread in the northeast and a few other cities primarily) or Summer (Sun Belt states). Very similar to what happened in Europe where basically every country started to spike at the same time.

That's a higher number of cases per capita then Florida ever recorded. Starting to get clear signs of a spike starting here in Mass. along with the rest of Southern New England. Given the high levels of mask usage in this area, it suggests seasonal factors are at work.

Compared to Delta, Zeta is a bit weaker on Gulf emergence and will have less time over water, but the overall environment appears to be a bit better. I agree at least a solid cat 1 at landfall is likely, could be a bit stronger depending on how long it takes the storm to "reset" after the land interaction.

One of the major problems with the spread in places like the upper Midwest/Mountain West is limited availability of medical facilities and properly trained personnel. Very difficult to increase capacity in facilities in those areas, as opposed to a large hospital system in a major Metro. On a side note, also a possibility that hospitalizations are currently being under reported due to the high level of rural spread.Some of these smaller hospitals many not be reporting to HHS due to lack of staff knowledge of the new HHS system or have the time to handle all the reporting they require.

You can tell people are done with this season when there isn't a post here in 10 hrs and the NHC is showing a potential US hurricane landfall in 60 hrs. Albeit Zeta is not likely to be too much more than a nuisance.but I'm sure Louisiana is done with storms at this point.

Actually I was wrong about some parts of the "unenforceable" comment Re: El Paso. The do actually have the support of the Gov. for the curfew etc.

Not enforceable, as Gov. Abbott has removed that authority. But its the best they can do to try to get the people there to take it seriously. Regarding the Pats, their season went off the rails when Cam tested positive. Completely disrupted their momentum and disrupted practice schedule, etc.

Would think if this gets into northern gulf its strong TS at max. Only gulf coast hurricane with later landfall date are Kate and Juan (1985)

I know two personally who had it back in April-May. Both were in their 20s-30s neither were in hospital AFAIK but both had dry cough for 3-4 weeks

NNE is basically the one region of the US which is mostly escaped so far. Makes me worried about ski season up there. Not the skiing itself of course, but people traveling etc.Obviously its an important part of their economy.

Not sue how much of this is true. Deaths are definitely reduced compared to hospitalizations relative to the spring, but some of that is certainly due improvements in treatment and groups much more vulnerable, like the elderly being better protected/more cautious. Also, masking may be reducing viral loads in those infected, and there could potentially get seasonal factors at play also (although this last one is much more speculative).

One thing I am curious about is hospitalizations bottomed out at about the same level (+/-1000 roughly) in June and September. Yet Average deaths were down to 550/day in June but didn't go below 700/day in September. Seems like too much of a difference to just be noise. Don't know why that ratio would be higher now.