dan11295

Per PNS many 60-70 mph gusts in New Jersey, with some spot higher gusts.

Stronger winds getting into NYC metro now. 650k out now in NJ . 1.5M out from NC north.

405k out in New Jersey now. Numbers haven't jumped in New York yet.

Must be getting some strong winds in NJ, outages continuing to jump there, 272k out now.

Power outages in NJ jumped by another 65k in last 10 minutes.

Some heavy rains down in MD, 8"+ totals being reported now.

First TOR warning in Mass.

Lots of tornado warnings ongoing, significant threat with Isaias. Appears some of these are not just your TC spinups either. multiple TOR's overnight with TDS on radar.

Seeing reports in main tropical thread also of significant surge

Sustained winds upped to 85 mph SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Most "Tropical Storms" around here are ET-transitioning systems curving away from Cape Cod which give rain and really no wind to speak of. Even though this will not a strong storm at landfall down south, the track of Isaias combined with the jet enhancement at least make it a bit more interesting.

Buoy down to 989 now w/15kt wind. Also suggests 987 mb right now

I do say the radar presentation looks the best it has in a while, plus recon appears to show a pressure fall.

11 am NHC Discussion mentions baro enhancement keeping the storm from weakening too fast, even though the track actually shifted a tad west and is now basically entirely inland after landfall Current westerly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt is expected to decrease somewhat during the next 12 h and also become more southwesterly, which will be in better alignment with Isaias' forward motion vector. The decrease in the shear should result in less tilt to the cyclone, allowing Isaias to strengthen and regain hurricane status just before making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.

E. CT/RI E+SE Mass gets some good gusty winds, particularly coastal areas but nothing too crazy IMHO.

How far East can this go? Is a miss to the SE still a real option? Then there is the issue of how strong. This storm is going to remain sheared and will probably be undergoing ET transition are our latitude.

Saw some limb damage in Stow driving into work this morning, couple side roads closed. Heard the thunder last night but missed the winds at home.

It was time for it to go IMHO, it had outlived its usefulness.

As far as Freeport, I think you will find most of the damage there will be from surge. Western part of the city never got into the eye wall and it was weakening some before it got there.

When assessing damage, important to distinguish between surge and wind damage (there was a lot of both here) on Abacos. The building Josh was in was a brick school which was basically demolished with a few partial walls standing. No way Josh uses a building in a category 5 for shelter unless he feels its a strong structure. Also saw a video from someone in a car driving past what was clearly catastrophic wind damage. From aerials alone though it can be hard to distinguish though, especially since most stuff is low lying there.

I know Josh has been in many intense Hurricanes. Has he ever been in the eyewall of something this intense? He was not the in strongest winds of Michael, Patricia was a weakening 4, Haiyan was probably a 4 by the time it got to Tacloban City. I know Michael last year was the lower pressure he has actually recorded.

Still reporting, pressure dropped 1.3 mb in 10 minutes to 966 mb. Wind still NE

Without Guam radar, hard to tell how much of the eyewall Saipan is likely to get, Looks like Tinian is likely to have the eye go party over it.

Wonder much longer Saipan will continue to report obs. They are now Sustained NE 67 G 85 mph with pressure 978 mb

UK and EURO both hit same areas near ILM with heaviest rainfall, GFS is a bit northeast. EURO does not have the crazy totals that the GFS and UK have. Would take some very persistent traning with heavy bands to get what the UK/GFS are implying. But that stuff is somewhat storm structure dependent.