LP08

Has that weird dry spot almost all over Northern Va and MD compared to 6z. Surrounded by heavier stuff in all directions. Strange run but possible

Only 9 after a high yesterday here of 45. Quite a shock to the system!

3k a little thumpier than 18. Still not awesome but better

CWG has me in total 2-15 with boom bust. I feel safe

Looks like a bug at least on pivotal. Has sleet solidly in central Va then the algorithm changes all of sleet back to snow. Still is a great thump.

For sure. The coastal transfer is a pipe dream for the majority of the form excluding far and nw. Some of the best runs snowfall wise were those early Ukie runs than ran the primary way west but were super amped with the overrunning. I think it’s a lost cause of trying to get it south of us-transfer and hope.

I think we want it to amp early. The low is way way west of us. Toggle the full us map at 39. That stream of overrunning is what we want and not some disjointed flat system. If it’s flat it sends the best early stuff south and we wait for the second and that comes with the warmth.

I think it helps and hurts. Better moisture but may cause thermals issues. I’d risk thermals for a better thump which seems to be the case this go around.

Baja low a little quicker to eject

I want the deform sleet. Quicker coastal transfer (not that it will help you and me).

Rgem looks good…maybe a touch warmer above but good precip through the critical time .

It’s obviously too late with the flip but hopefully not far off on qpf? 0.6” pre flip is the goal for the metros I think.

Just look at the FV3. Still snow past 18z. its wrong but fun to look at

My take away as it took a step towards wetter. Maximizing 0z-12z is so critical.

It’s wetter but we fight over head temps.