I was in Fredericksburg for this. My biggest memory is when we flipped to sleet and had to build mounds to hide behind because of the wind blown sleet hitting our faces.
Even after the first "threat" on 1/16, new GEFS looks nice through the end of the run. Euro also has fantasy overrunning after 1/16. To my weenie eyes, tracking will pick up through the end of the month.
This X100. My area has been relatively lucky this year and past years and even I am getting sick of thin stripes of "win" where it covers like 50 miles N to S.
Next few weeks really come down to the -NAO with the Pacific the way it is. You can toggle runs from days ago today and see how extreme the solutions can differ. Look at 12z post 240.