weatherwiz

As we compare the next several years to the 1991-2020 climate regime, it will be more difficult to notice greater departures unless we reach the next level of heat...which would be widespread lower 100's and occurring multiple times over the course of the summer. It isn't impossible that will happen but a ton would have to go right IMO to happen. What we're most likely going to continue doing is seeing consistent and a longer seasonal duration of dewpoints well into the 70's and continuing the uphill climb of overnight lows.

Well I shouldn't say its too far north but I think its intensity by the NAM is being way overplayed and its resulting in dynamics going wild.

Can essentially nowcast this tonight and early tomorrow morning by watching how the convection develops and evolves centered around Iowa. Too me I think the 12z NAM is wayyy over aggressive with the northward extent of that convection and how intense it is and its going bonkers with the dynamics.

Yeah whether this stalls or not is going to be a huge key. The front does become parallel to the upper flow which would be an indication that it will stall...just a matter of where.

What a difference between the 6z/12z NAM in how it handles the convective development and evolution tonight/tomorrow

I don't think we're going to see much, if any, convection down this way tomorrow. Looks like we're pretty capped and the LFC is pretty high and separated from the LCL. Probably just see stuff develop across the high terrain of PA/NY which slides east but kind of dissipates. Debating whether we may have a chance to see a few storms pop during the evening but forcing looks pretty limited.

Also looks good for transient supercells across Maine tomorrow...maybe even a little localized enhanced tornado potential towards the coast and around Portland.

Leaning in the direction of lower rainfall amounts for end of week versus anything over the top. The bulk of the convection that develops tonight and Wednesday from SD/NE/MA/IA is going to end up riding the instability boundary and trucking into the mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability is and that is going to rob a ton of available moisture. We'll likely see downpours and thunderstorms ahead of the front Thursday but widespread significant rainfall totals I don't think will be happening. Just a typical fropa with downpours and thunderstorms ahead of it.

Absolutely beautiful outside. Already feel the process of my body beginning to produce sweat. There is nothing like feeling the hot, strong sun beat down on you and the tingles you get when the sweat producing process commences. I mean this is gold, everyone loves it. The birds are happy, praying mantis are happy, people have smiles on their faces. Feel it, embrace it, love it.

If this is the direction we're going to head then there is going to be some serious issues somewhere for sure. Want to wait another day or so before really getting concerned and crazy but this is impressive for summer

It certainly seems like it. Looking at the NAM though you could probably also argue that 925/850 low could be overstated...even maybe on euro a bit but the weathermodel graphics are awful. I could see this going either way right now but it def has to be watched.

That is one hell of a thermal gradient though for the warm season across the region. That would be some hefty lift across the region along the warm front with some decent elevated CAPE. Would have to wonder though if convection across the mid-Atlantic robs any moisture...convection could be robust there. This is interesting and intriguing for sure.

The front though does look like it would become parallel to the upper-level flow. There are some signals for a significant rainfall event but some of these signals could be overstated too. Have to see where we stand in the next 1-2 days

The NAM/Euro may have a bit of convective feedback going on

Oh man look at this from the 12z NAM for DSM this evening. Those CAPE numbers are ridiculous. 1450 Hail CAPE...WOOOOOOWWWWWW

we should bake, especially with the westerly sfc flow and should have ample sun

CAPE is great but means nothing without a robust enough trigger! Unfortunately, the largest CAPE days generally occur when there is a lack of forcing/trigger. CAPE values that high aren't actually uncommon in those parts but it gains more attention when you have a forcing mechanism.

Thursday though could feature potential for a few tornadoes across southern CT/Long Island/RI/Cape Cod

That NAM has a narrow corridor of 5000-6000 J of MLCape with DCAPE values ~1500+ J....that's absurd. There's going to be some significant wind damage

We may get nada in SNE Wednesday...storms for NNE and then southwest of us. After that weak front passes through tomorrow I'm not even sure we truly warm sector on Wednesday. You may have a weak warm front lifting north but the true or secondary warm front never even gets into the region.

Thanks! Always had wondered that, this makes a lot of sense.

Right now biggest question is how much instability will materialize. I would expect at least scattered thunderstorms to develop early-to-mid afternoon and progress southeast quickly through the late afternoon. Shear is enough to warrant the potential for thunderstorms to organize into a line. Shear is also enough to yield a low probability for a tornado along the warm front (which will be up around that area). I'd say 3-7 PM is the time frame for storms...that can probably even be narrowed down a bit more tomorrow too.

that feature is very evident. Assessing real time observations is a lot of fun and something I'm trying to do much more frequently and want to do as we move through the winter. Sometimes its so easy to get caught up and looking at models and complaining about the lack of consistency between models or figuring out which model has the better handle and forgetting there is a great way to answer these questions...compare initialization and real-time observations over the next 6-12 hours to guidance and that will help answer these questions. A few weeks ago I remember watching water vapor for quite some time. The weather pattern featured a trough digging into the west with the jet stream poleward into the Inter-mountain West. So you had a dry punch entering the desert Southwest and as that air ascended over the Inter-mountains cloud and convection forming. And with the ridge across the south you had the jet axis becoming more zonal into the central states so as that air descended the Rockies the convection/clouds dissipated...it was great/cool watching science work in real time.

Do you think the "launch pad" aspect of temperatures overrated? I mean wouldn't the degree of mixing and the lapse rate hold the most weight?

I would watch for tonight to perhaps end up a bit farther south than what guidance has...probably following along the southern edge of where the SPC has the enhanced so I would watch this closely. I know there is only the marginal right now for tomorrow but could be another big night. May not see another moderate but wouldn't be surprised if an enhanced risk was eventually thrown out there once the details become clearer.