weatherwiz

IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection.

I've made several posts on the tornado threat but I don't think I've mentioned about tonight but there is potential overnight as well.

airplanes being tossed into the Atlantic

Getting a little concerned about the tornado potential in CT tomorrow...models are spitting out quite a bit of CAPE...especially within the lowest 3km. NAM bufkit soundings showing >300 J of 3km CAPE and over 1000 J of 6km CAPE...those are quite high given the amount of shear. I'll also add this...we may see llvl lapse rates steep enough to where these winds can certainly overperform...especially with any convective elements.

This situation that we're dealing with is why I am legit scared of a major hurricane impacting us. I mean think about it...our window of knowing like 100% certain that we will get nailed is like what...maybe 8-12 hours? Sure we can have an idea it will happen and make necessary preparations but there is still that uncertainty...by the time we really are certain it's too late to really act. It would be an absolute disaster, especially if you ever had to talk evacuations. How many people are really going to take something seriously when the main wording is "we still don't know"?

certainly don't disagree with that. Outside of perhaps some gusty winds and showers with could give some a nice little drink you guys out in the east are going to be shafted

Yeah I think at this juncture anyone looking for or thinking we'll see widespread heavy rainfall is misguided. There will be some heavy rain...just not as widespread as some are thinking. At this juncture the greatest concern is 1) Winds and power outage potential 2) Major coastal flooding 3) Risk for isolated tornadoes

6-10 threats

Maybe it's time for a specific thread about Isaias?

Oh **** Check out this 18z NAM hodo at BDL midnight Tuesday night. That's a crap ton of CAPE given those shear parameters

hmmm not sure why it didn't post the loop but I was tying to post a 11 second loop from radarscope.

I know

Ryan was all over that. IMG_4477.mov

true but with clouds and trees those areas get darker a bit more quickly. I chased up that way a few times and one time was near dark and we encountered a road that was littered with debris and live wires

Would never chase up that way lol. Way too many trees around and with it getting towards sunset that is a recipe for disaster

The really only thing to watch is probably that batch of storms entering NW NJ. Outside of that I don't think we really see anything develop. Storms have certainly tried to develop but without a trigger or larger-scale forcing it's just not happening. But we'll starting losing ingredients in the next 2-3 hours.

SUPERCELL COMPOSITE OF 16 AND SIG TOR OF 3....DAMNNNNN. Fook you lack of trigger

Nice looking cell moving into NW CT

the problem is, despite the sun ripping out, is there just isn’t much in the way of forcing or large-scale lift. We have all the ingredients needed for severe wx and for the possibility of a tornado...except lift and we’ll that is kinda important. Maybe differential heating or if the warm front can hang around a bit...that could be a focal point?

Oh damn lol. This is where I am right now but about to head back home.

Supercell composite of 12 and Sig TOr of 2 SE NY into SW CT. Don’t see those values often here

Attempted to chase that stuff in NE CT. At Crystal Lake but headed back to Windsor Locks and will wait on stuff from ENY

As long as they rotate

Anyone with access to RPM know what it shows for today?

That ongoing cell in NJ could be the one to watch.