weatherwiz

yeah some of our biggest events come from; 1) NW flot aloft (mid-levels)...which also tend to match well with EML advection but not all NW flow events are associated with EML's 2) EML's 3) cold pools aloft but our severe wx events can be maximized with the combo of a NW flow/EML

good news is we have the chances!

I should actually clarify...west winds alone doesn't mean less convergence...it's more of the winds with respect to the front. Typically with cold FROPAS they do so in a more northwest to southeast fashion...so if you have like S, SW, SE winds...they're going into the front ...air is converging which means upward motion. If sfc winds are more W its kind more parallel to the front so there isn't much convergence. At least that's how I've always understood it

looks like 18z is slowing down a tad more. still have a more W sfc wind though which will limit convergence but boy...what does develop is going to produce some good wind

nasty storm just north of Danbury

I would be working from home today too

My concern would be subsidence behind morning MCs

There’s afternoon potential too

I’m smelling the D!!!! It’s a D setup!! I want the D!!!!!

Karma is a *itch hahaha

unidirectional flow and subsequent storm mode, inverted-V soundings, high LCL's, southern New England

Looks like some pseudo-EML air that might move overhead? I bet we see one or two microbusts with winds 65-75 mph.

Should see some pretty nasty t'storms today across eastern CT through southeastern MA. Big lightning producers too

probably happens a couple times each summer. I spend weekends with my girlfriend so I try not to be buried into my phone too much. Anyways...did get one started this morning but as usual everyone is going to think tomorrow is massive widespread potential and then cry bust b/c they didn't get anything...even though this setup is not widespread convection and most probably see nothing. BUT...for those that do...the storms will pack a punch

There is also a quite a bit of dry air in the mid-levels...which will also limit widespread coverage, but increases damaging wind potential with any storms that fire.

Also looks like some sort of pre-frontal trough may come through a little early? Near westerly sfc winds should limit convergence which should limit aerial coverage but I still think we'll see multiple short line segments...whatever develops will have plenty of dynamics to tap into. That's why I think we'll see widespread damage but localized/concentrated

There is a bit of uncertainty regarding the overall potential due to the anticipated timing of the strong cold front, however, the potential exists for multiple fast-moving line segments capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps hail (especially with any splitting supercells). A fairly vigorous shortwave trough amplifies as it approaches New England with a plume of steeper lapse rates moving through aloft and a strengthening mid-level jet on order of 50-60 knots. At the surface we'll see temperatures pushing well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 depending on overall timing of the front with dewpoints well into the 60's to near 70. Combination of heat and humidity with steeper lapse rates should yield a moderately unstable atmosphere...BUT this could be limited with a faster fropa. Should timing of the front slow down we could see some pockets of widespread wind damage. Forecast soundings indicate a textbook inverted-V signature indicating increased potential for damaging winds and long/straight hodographs suggest splitting supercells/hail potential

AHHHHH they dropped to 88

Bic Mac's 62 HR barely made it over the wall but a HR is a HR

I actually am not a huge fan of the mlvl lapse rate output from COD. It always tends to want to bring in steep lapse rates. But...there were times throughout the summer where the look seemed to favor it, but there was one or two key pieces missing. not sure what exactly but you need the airmass to sort of remain homogeneous moving through the upper-Midwest and OV and that hasn't happened. Probably mT air from the Gulf being entrained into the mid-levels.

At this the pattern being projected does favor the potential for some steeper lapse rates to eject our way...very fickle though. You would also think it could favor MCS activity...we are at the climo time of year where that potential (I would wager) is highest. We just have to lock in high theta-e air in the llvls while strong jet energy traverses above...and the way to do that...be atop the crest of the ridge...which looks like we will be.

And BDL up to 89!!! 90 day #36 about to happen. Should tie record Sunday and break Monday and add on Tuesday

Only took until September but yellows and reds a comin'!!!!!!!!!!!! It's like an English Premiere League soccer football (don't want to offend the English) match

maybe we'll see a wave train of tropical activity into the Gulf of Mexico and latent heat pump a ridge across the east through November

yehhhhhhhh