weatherwiz

storms. on vacation so time for some action

Trying to figure out where to go today. Maybe SE NY

Perhaps going to SE or NE PA tomorrow to storm chase!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ahhh think I found it. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=76

Does anyone know the specific link on Iowa St you can search a ton of different data? I know @dendrite has posted graphics here many times. I swore I think a few had posted graphs a month ago when there was discussion about windiest months and such.

The pattern configuration across the country; particularly the western and central U.S. would certainly favor the advection of "heat" (however you want to define that) into our region. Obviously there are some factors to consider such as any resistance to our northeast but it won't take much for us to get some big heat/humidity days. Will it be long-sustaining? Probably not because the pattern looks to remain active with perturbations, however, big heat/humidity isn't really meant to be sustained around these parts until we really get into July. Anytime you crank 90's and dews >65-70 in here before mid-to-late June...it's on the impressive side of the scale. There seemed to be a time where it was tough to get dews much higher than 60-65 until like...August.

I hope the cane doesn't verify that weekend. That's the weekend of Pokemon Go Fest. Ticket was $15 or $12.

Hoping for some strong convective chances Friday/Saturday. Won't be anything crazy for the region as a whole as lapse rates will blow but maybe some localized wet microbust potential

Not really surprised with this GFS run really. Always thought it was a bit too aggressive with keeping the low closed off for so long given the indications of the trough lifting/de-amplifying. This isn't to say this weekend will be precipitation free. There's certainly going to be some lift around and with a warm/moist llvl airmass we'll see areas of downpours and thunderstorms develop during the day.

Where pockets of stronger heating break out over the weekend temps will surge well into the 70's and perhaps even lower 80's.

Should certainly see some convection with this system. Maybe opportunity for some strong stuff

EML's?

The difference is more between closed low or closed low becoming an open wave and de-amplifying against cut-off

selling the "cutoff"...if that can even be characterized as a cutoff

I love the 500mb look the GFS has moving into the first week of June. Not saying it will happen this way but as is that's a great look for thunderstorm chances. We're on the crest of strong mid-level ridging across the South so pretty strong westerly/west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Would keep opportunities for cooler mid-level temps with potential EML plumes and we can get advection of hot/humid air at the sfc. The look will probably change but if you're ever looking for a look which can offer up solid convective shots...that's one look

Outflow

Got to see some decent lightning at least…just like the Florida Panthers

Just the CG and BOOM

HOLY SHIT HUGE KABOOM

Really decent outflow winds here in Springfield

Hoping so! Been so many mixed signals on the pattern for the last week of May/first week of June. Been some hints at some sort of cut-off. If that doesn't verify we could get into a tasty pattern.

My guess would be BOX wasn't in agreement for a watch this early or maybe even at all. May see a new WW issued later but honestly I'm not so sure one is really warranted. Seems like this activity is going to fizzle rather quickly.

That is one massive watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0262.html

Be curious to see if that northern area is a TOR. LCL's on the high side but some curvature to the hodos.