weatherwiz

That is an absolute crush job for them. The upslope would be insane. Still some work to do elsewhere, but not out of the cards yet.

Very nice

At least we won't have to deal with this uncertainty once severe weather season comes. It's cold front approaches, we get severe weather, boom...easy peasy

If I had to lean in any direction right now it's that we will eventually see a stronger consensus towards the southern vort outrunning the northern vort. There seem to be some decent signals that would favor the northern vort slowing down a bit.

Precisely why it's not worth getting all emotional from run-to-run. This gets said all the time at this stage, but this (especially this type of scenario) is where ensembles hold most weight. Like you said, there are a ton of different combos we can see and an OP is just going to show one of those combos and that doesn't necessarily mean it's holds the most weight.

I wouldn't worry too much with what models have for 2m temps verbatim, no matter the solution and forgot the garbage snowfall maps. The degree of upper-level dynamics which will be in place will support the potential for rapid deepening and cyclogenesis (obviously it's a matter of getting everything to phase and align). In the event we see a favorable phase, dynamics will then take over. Combination of increasing llvl convergence and ulvl divergence along will work to cool the profile and if you can get a favorable low track/placement you'll even increase the odds for a cold enough profile down to the coast. But the one thing models will struggle with is the 2M temperatures in these scenarios. Remember, they're going to want to scale towards climo in a sense. but if you were to look at 2M temps at this stage and see 34-35 (even in the most explosive runs), I would be willing to bet at verification time the temps are more 32-33.

These are not necessarily true.

All that matters now is how each model (and subsequent runs) continue to handle the evolution of the northern stream and southern stream. All you're looking for is consistency regarding evolution and trying to eliminate scenarios and hone in on as few scenarios as possible. the verbatim details of temp profiles, p-type, QPF, etc. are irrelevant at this stage.

Focusing on just the southern stream here, but I wonder if one big key is how convective active it becomes along and ahead of the front Saturday and Sunday within the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Both GFS and Euro are quite active, however, the Euro is more robust. Looks like with this more robust activity and a stronger southern vort. it helps to pump up heights off the EC and leads to the better phase interaction between the two streams with better digging of the northern vort

As we get closer, we could probably really start focusing on the potential for dynamic cooling to negate a subpar initial airmass. In these solutions were seeing airmass wouldn't be a huge concern as the degree of dynamic cooling would probably be pretty significant.

You always gets leery of stall scenarios this far out, but the H5 evolution, at least on the Euro, would support that idea. Would really like to see some better blocking support to truly get excited for that idea though.

I am praying the PAC can finally give us an assist. The pattern evolution across the PAC becomes quite complex with a major split flow developing. Looks like the shortwave which enhances the PNA ridge across the western comes all the way from Asia and amplifies as it digs south through the Gulf of Alaska...or slightly east. One thing that is great to see though or there isn't a train of shortwave energy within the northern stream across the CONUS over the weekend. Also, I would watch for confluence to arise on future model runs with PV lobe nearby

Yeah my assessment wasn't the best. I was looking at 850 temp anomalies and also was looking at bit ahead of when things would be going.

At least we'll have a cold llvl airmass with respect to climo. You just hope that we can minimize diurnal warmth as much as possible. Coastal locations will be quite the challenge obviously.

This is certainly the type of storm potential where going crazy over model run-to-model run is not worth it. These setups which are highly dependent on phasing are extremely fickle. The only two features which really matter now are the handling of the pieces of energy involved. Just because some successive runs at this stage don't show a storm doesn't mean it's a trend and just b/c successive runs show a storm doesn't mean a storm.

Getting pretty intrigued with Saturday. Obviously there are questions regarding the track, but the upper-level dynamics seem much more impressive then the past few systems with tracked east-southeast across the Great Lakes. Much stronger vort which remains closed later and you have the jet streak beginning to round the base of the trough moving into the Northeast, indicating potential for rapid amplification or strengthening. I wonder though if the southern track will pose the highest likelihood for a more intense system? Sure that will suck more most, but would be a beauty to watch unfold.

Summer is so close but so far

Just saw a bald eagle fly through the yard

Well I'm really hoping things will quiet down across the country in terms of winter weather soon so I can really get back into this. Anyways, I have started to go back and re-do this whole project. I have completed the list of La Nina winters by strength (weak, moderate, strong/super-strong). When looking at structure (west-based, basin-wide, east-based), I want to go about this in a way that is a bit more complex. Originally, I was doing structure based on DJF SSTA's, however, I think structure evolution also needs to be taken into account. For example, you could have east-based during the fall and that could evolve into a west-based structure moving through winter. So for this, I am doing SSTA composites for OND, NDJ, and DJF. When I get into the core of the composites (500mb height anomalies, Sea-level pressure anomalies, temperature anomalies, Outgoing longwave radiation anomalies, etc.) I am going to break winter into two halves. December 1 - January 30 February 1 - March 31 Doing this will now incorporate March into my composites which I didn't have before and obviously we know winter can be a tale of two halves. I think doing this breakdown too will elicit better signals of pattern change periods in the historical record.

Between 2.5” and 2.75” here. Couldn’t get exact b/c I forgot my glasses when I went outside

I know now with the other reports but it caught me off guard. Roads finally getting covered here

Thunder!!!! I think I just had thunder!!!

Lightning!!

Coating on the grass but nada on roads

Snow has started!!!!!