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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    If I could weenie myself I would
  2. weatherwiz
    That's almost like what I'm expecting to see for January in the mean, just a bit less extreme.
  3. weatherwiz
    meh voodoo From what I read, it can yield what seems to be very accurate results, but it can't explain how it arrived at the results or show the work. Big red flag. Only benefit seems to be is it produces output much more quickly. That's what resources should be investing in...how to produce the data more quickly and efficiency.
  4. weatherwiz
    Rain here in Springfield. May have started as some flakes. I went to Wendy’s a bit after 8:00 and things were wet (no signs of snow). Rain started again as I was driving and I think I saw a few mangled flakes.
  5. weatherwiz
    Agreed, I'm still feeling 1957-1958 vibes. The signals we're starting to see for December are quite encouraging. what I would really hate to see are signals of a strengthening and dominating PV, which nothing has really suggested. Obviously we'll see some seasonal strengthening, but if the PV fails to become established moving into or through first half of December...I expect blocking begins to set in and we're off to the races as we get a much more favorable VP over the CONUS.
  6. weatherwiz
    We need that big time. Past few years, even when we've seen some signs of a trough into the East there was always ridging hanging around just to or east...or the likelihood the trough axis would be too far west and we pump up heights in the East. That concern is gone with this look.
  7. weatherwiz
    Can't hate where that mean trough axis is
  8. weatherwiz
    Definitely going to see some heavy snow in spots later on. It is quite cold and with the super low dew points evap cooing should cool things even more. Some pretty intense 850 fronto too in this core of WAA
  9. weatherwiz
    It is extremely encouraging. Definitely love to see that. Once we are able to shake the rising air over much of the CONUS as well (evident by that VP map) we should start to get a more active look...something beyond just frontal systems and frontal system induced lows.
  10. weatherwiz
    I'll take my chances with an active southern stream. The "cold" is just a relative term. Yeah I'm sure climo will still bite someone in the behind, but we don't need -10F departures either. Just get an active southern stream, storm track just a bit off the coast, and have favorable temperatures across southeast Canada to tap into.
  11. weatherwiz
    I wonder if we're trying to re-strengthen the -PDO or if this is just some noise. Some interesting SST trends though over the past week, particularly within the ENSO domain. Be curious to see how SOI/MEI roll out in a few weeks.
  12. weatherwiz
    Does last night constitute as a hard freeze? I think so. Was walking the dog in the yard to use the bathroom around 5:45 AM this morning and the ground was super hard. It was also very peaceful. Starting up at the cloudless sky and seeing stars...haven't done something like that in quite some time. You can just look at the sky and know it's cold.
  13. weatherwiz
    I am hoping at some point down the road cod will add HRRR point-and-click soundings. I should check out Pivotal...I know they offered paid subscriptions. I have weathermodels for $10/month but it's really not that great.
  14. weatherwiz
    That looks like a wall of heavy snow for the Berks and southern Greens on the HRRR. Should jump onto TT since you can check HRRR soundings there but per cod that is all snow with some intense dbz
  15. weatherwiz
    Tornado Watch for parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Almost forgot what a tornado watch was. First watch in over a month.
  16. weatherwiz
    yeah I was looking at ORH on bufkit and that's a pretty decent cross hair signature. 6z NAM had 20 units of omega into the DGZ. You can really see the warm air is really struggling to penetrate into the polar airmass. Giving timing of precip too this could be a nice burst of accumulating snow for the interior.
  17. weatherwiz
    Almost looks like a bit of dynamic cooling going on with the NAM
  18. weatherwiz
    I always go back and forth with this notion as well and you know what...learning requires time and patience. Time and patience is something which seems to be fading in today's society. Everyone is in such a rush and people want so much information but they don't want to take the time needed to fully digest information. People who are out there to truly learn and understand something are going to take the time to do so.
  19. weatherwiz
    At least the pattern is looking active going for at least the few weeks. The PAC is quite unstable too...you can see where the model flip flopping is coming from.
  20. weatherwiz
    meh
  21. weatherwiz
    Yes definitely. I was hoping maybe the GFS was onto some idea but these 12z runs have ended it for me. You can clearly see where this is headed now.
  22. weatherwiz
    This is probably just going to be a typical FROPA with showers, some heavier rain, and gusty winds
  23. weatherwiz
    I was just going to post this I hope it's not another winter of this crap with the model swings and uncertainty. This is beyond laughable.
  24. weatherwiz
    Frost angels?
  25. weatherwiz
    NAO to me looks to be transitioning. I wouldn't classify the NAO as a textbook +NAO.
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