weatherwiz

It is hard to hate this, you're digging the trough into WV now and subsequently building heights a bit north of Maine. Clown range, but hopefully a good sign

Obviously it's the NAM well out of it's wheelhouse but it's hard to really hate it (depending on your location haha)

It does seem slower...watch it be too low and the thing tucks west into the HV

Be interesting to see what the NAM does. Thus far it seems slower and stronger with the northern vort then the GFS/Euro through 15z Sunday. EDIT: It may not be slower as it may just be farther north

This is key...this is why many are still in the game. It's not like we're hoping for this to slow significantly. It's not unrealistic at this stage even for that to occur. If we were needing this to slow by several hours I think it would be game over.

Gross

Agreed.

Just another idea on the table at this time, but I will say that I don't buy the idea of a low into CT

Disagree, these setups that possibility always has to be on the table. What really sucks about them is they are extremely hard to forecast and give merit too, but that's because of the processes involved. We've been slapped with dual lows before.

I would love to be in northern Litchfield County or Berks

That is a pretty scary idea...that would certainly throw in the possibility of a miss east like forky alluded too earlier.

It's trying to get under LI

We're certainly going to need all the dynamic support we can.

It's coming. All frustrations of this winter will come to an end Monday/Tuesday. Then we can all look forward to and embrace 90's with deep humidity

I am getting extremely excited. I think we're going to go out with a big bang. There will be some that certainly get screwed but that's the nature of the game. This is when the Euro retakes the throne. I want to be hearing snap, crackle, pop Monday night and not from my cereal.

Invisible unless you’re looking at trees

I agree with this. I became onboard with the idea of getting tons of snow in late February and March b/c it won’t last but I would just much rather get drilled with snow in January and February (and December) and once March comes…we Morch.

Correct EDIT: Ray finished with the layup

I don’t think you want a system that is bombing too crazy and too rapidly. Those scenarios the precip tends to become more banded. This is why we hold the benchmark as a Godsend. If that happens over the benchmark…it’s happening in a location where everyone can cash in.

Ensembles have given us our “field goal posts”. It’s going to be up to OP now to sniff out the timing and interaction.

All in all I think the ensembles are going a great job. They're doing what they're supposed to do, help to eliminate or reduce spread and that's what we're seeing. Obviously, given the time of year, there are alot more challenges to contend with, especially outside of the interior and elevation. The details which will matter with that, however, likely aren't going to be resolved with the ensembles. This is where consistency of OP runs (mode-to-model and run-to-run) will become extremely important as we get to the 72-84 hour mark.

True, but all that does at this stage is keep expectations at bay and just illustrates that subtle differences regarding the timing of phasing will have a huge impact overall. 18z or 0z could tick more east with the majority of members...that wouldn't or shouldn't change any thinking yet...we're still a bit too far out in time.

ENS still show members which are very solid and great hits. Yes it has members which are certainly west and inland, but right now, any scenario of big hit vs. mostly rain is in play

In that regard, yes that is definitely a concern, but on the other hand, if this materializes like the 12z Euro, it wouldn't be much of a concern. Obviously (outside of the elevations and interior) we're looking for near-perfection.

I'm not concerned with the EPS, at least at this stage. If anything, we now have pinned this down to a very narrow corridor of track/development. With that, it's all just going to come down to precise timing of when the phasing occurs. I suspect we are going to be walking a fine line until probably 24-hours out b/c a very slight difference (slightly earlier vs. slightly later) is going to mean the world (for many).