weatherwiz

We'll really know for certain with the 0z (f not 6z) runs tonight. By then the surface low will have developed and convection will be ongoing. The issues that models are having with the development of these two will be resolved and I would think model performance improves and becomes in stronger agreement.

Guidance has been dreadful with temperatures pretty much throughout the country for weeks. I'm sure a large part of it has to do with the pattern but I mean they've been terrible. MOS, NBM, etc. I don't know much (well anything) about model physics, but I wonder how much of an impact something like this has on the models.

Do you think the initial dry air could help with cooling that layer (evap cooling)? It's not a major warm layer so maybe it an cool just enough to prevent sleet. If the GFS is more correct there could see some dynamic cooling to offset a warm nose

Agreed, mentioned that same thing too earlier. That's one major differentiator between this setup and earlier in the week. That system did not have much in the way of convection so it was one less thing to screw things up.

It's beyond a nightmare. I mean this is even a nightmare forecast for the northern Ohio Valley. It is nearly impossible right now to just easily say "toss or "ride with" a particular piece of guidance.

GFS looks to have a stronger HP north of Maine?

The NAM I don't think is ever great as a while, but there are certain aspects of the NAM which are very good. It's never good to fully rely on it, but its never good to just completely toss it as well.

Acquired Tyler Bertuzzi (though this raises concerns injuries to one of Foligno or Hall is significant) Locked up Pasta 8 years $90 million ($11.25 AAV)

Mentioned this yesterday, but models still struggling exactly where the sfc low develops and strengthens tonight. That's having an impact on whether we see more east/west track. Regardless though, I think the idea of the primary remaining strong is gaining merit.

I wish COD had point-and-click soundings for the HRRR. TT is stuck at 33 hours

Yeah I'll be watching that while watching hokey. I'm a bit skeptical as to whether it will play out as advertised though. I think that large Slight risk tomorrow is a bit aggressive as well. That Artificial Intelligence severe weather tool that gets tossed around like candy now (I forget what it is) kind of drives me nuts.

There might be a decent little pocket of convection which traverses West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and maybe southern New Jersey. Depending how robust and organized this could certainly rob a quite a bit of moisture like Ullmark robbed the Flames the other night.

One thing noticeable too is the models have been a bit inconsistent on exactly where the low forms down in Texas. This may not mean much really, but that could impact it's exact track as it moves northeast and then ultimately determine whether it gets farther north or squashed south

That's about what my initial thoughts are for Connecticut.

Quite frustrating. I keep thinking too how much the convection which evolves through the day tomorrow will impact the system. I'm really starting to think though this is going to be a major dud. Looking at the GFS QPF it's very encouraging, however, the column really starts to dry quickly. The whole system just looks extremely messy. If anything, there will probably be a very narrow corridor that gets hit decent...but it's over a short duration. I don't think we'll end up seeing widespread QPF as aggressive as the GFS has.

This may be one of the most annoying aspects of this whole thing. The timing differences are pretty wild. I'm inclined to go with the faster timing which seems to be the case more often then not, especially in these patterns.

Here is a sounding in Litchfield County. Super close. But also note the dry air

Looks a bit stronger and more consolidated with the s/w too. Seems it takes a bit longer for it to open up

Certainly plausible, especially towards southern Connecticut, but at this stage there is just so much uncertainty it's hard to go with any one solution or idea. I think it's even possible this whole thing may end up crapping out and this is a rather uneventful, low impact event for most.

I foresee this as being extremely similar to the past storm we had, except with questions on overall thermal profile, but I would wager colder vs. warmer.

Going to have to rely quite heavily on getting good upper level divergence to help with blossoming precipitation. There is a ton of dry air out ahead of the system and also a great deal of dry air that gets ingested into the system as a whole.

The differences between the NAM/GFS are astonishing. But regardless, it appears this system is going to be weakening relatively quickly.

Good snow coming down again with excellent snow growth. It's been snowing all day...I can't remember the last time that happened.

I feel like I'm living in a snow globe today. Only exception is there is no shaking going on to generate the snow.

Coming down nicely again here