weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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FWIW, 18z NAM/GFS initialized and are WAYYYY high with dewpoints for this current time -
yeah I used some and got the different results. The one with arctan yielded 31, there was another calculator which calculated it based on temp/RH and that was 35. Then the "third rule" was 36. But I think the arctan is more accurrate
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Actually...it might be somewhere around 35/36? but getting varying results based on equation used. EDIT: just got 31 using the long ass equation with arctan.
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Guessing around 34
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Next time stamp is much better and then it's all hell after that
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GFS bufkit for ORH. Bufkit definitely rips looking over several locations, but noticing some subsidence at several locations too, even on the HRRR
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Just look at Denver. How often do you see them sometimes 70-80+ the day before snow and they'll still get a foot lol
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If I got anything close to that in Springfield I will go the entire summer without making a severe thread
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Agreed...this has been a bit problem is a quite a bit of dry air to contend with. I think the airmass is even drier then Monday's. It's going to take some time to really saturate I think. Also, the storm ingests a ton of dry air from the southwest. Looping RH at 500/700 is pretty uneasy looking. Sure, where you're lift is stronger and ulvl divergence is greater you'll offset this some, but we're playing with time here.
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This is going to be brutally ugly I think. I'd still be extremely skeptical with these QPF outputs, especially on such a widespread level.
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It depends on the run and what its spitting out in terms of snowfall.
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DO watch...it's incredible. My girlfriend is a defense attorney and she was able to point stuff out. It certainly may be a case of Netflix catering to a view point but wow...I had some feelings.
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Terrible...i was shocked to see ORD in a WSW when I woke up. That's one market I have to forecast for and looking at data today there was still no consistency or confidence.
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I see that too
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0z NAM early on and its so much slower with everything so far.Barely has the line getting into Memphis by 12z now
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The GFS may actually end up not performing that well overall with this and not just talking about locally. I guess it also depends on what metrics you're evaluating, but the GFS has always been fast with everything. It was fast with the convection moving across the south and fast with timing of everything into the OV and Northeast. NAM was always slower with everything.
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ahhh so another week of uconn basketball left
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it's an elongated piece of crap...good night
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I've always meant to ask you...why don't you like hockey?
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I just watched the Netflix documentary the other night...absolutely wild. Did you ever watch Making a Murder?
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Radar doesn't look like shit here
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Even on the cute GFS, the greatest WAA is southern areas. This has huge bust potential up north IMO
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I'd be very skeptical with that much QPF that far north this time around. Convection is going to rob a ton of moisture from this. Also, the better dynamic support may be more south.
