weatherwiz

Forget the snow maps...time to focus on these products

Not so sure...maybe hold steady or bring down a bit in the valley. Biggest concern now is subsidence but pinning down where that occurs...good luck

For ratios, outside of the banding they're likely going to be relatively low (probably around 7:1). Going to have to really keep in mind there is likely going to be subsidence involved. Also have to watch for pockets of dry air being ingested in, which if that happens into the DGZ is going to kill too. Then of course you have the boundary-layer issues and of course...wind. Under the heaviest banding I think ratios upwards of 13:1 to 15:1 are plausible. But this will be better assessed after bufkit is available.

bufkit does this, but obvious the output isn't on a map

I guess if there is one downfall of the NAM is it occludes pretty quickly so that may negate long-duration of the heaviest which of course would have a negative impact for the higher-end of the ceiling

I think NAM bufkit may actually come out by 11? or 11-11:30.

Now we gotta wait for the GFS...this extra hour sucks. I wonder if we'll ever start to get model data quicker someday. Also...have to wait until like 1:00 for GFS bufkit ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Hello beautiful

Slowly starting to get somewhere but still many flags. I think overall subsidence is going to be the biggest killer for some. Where the banding happens and it rips its going to be pretty epic. The best case scenario is a band that pivots across the entire region or if dual banding sets up they conjoin.

I guess if anything, it's nice not seeing the HRRR chasing convection...even if it's the extended range of the HRRR.

I think we're at a stage where models are going to diverge and fall apart and once we get to 12z tomorrow we start to see a consensus towards a bit hit. And that's not just me being a weenie. It will start with the NAM and we'll see the typical NAM jokes and then guidance starts to trickle. Not uncommon in these bigger ceiling type events.

Ughh I typed this and it went away but one underrated aspect of this that will have to be discussed is thundersnow potential. Some soundings are quite unstable through the DGZ…you get intense lift through that and you’re getting 3-4” per hour rates somewhere. And ratios will be better then 10:1

Unfortunately I am about 2 hours away from bed

Turning the clocks ahead makes us one hour closer to May 1st!!!

Sweet…a win-win

Does this mean bars close an hour earlier?

Goalposts are fine…as long as it’s not a Dallas cowboy doing the kicking

Nice! Youve had a decent few weeks.

What did you get? I went to sleep with rain drops on the noggin when letting the dog out

FWIW, these snow maps are the reason why last night was overblown. That entire system was completely over forecast from the upper-Midwest, northern Ohio Valley, and here. At what point…when will it happen…that people realize they’re TRASH

Maybe next December

3” is better then 0”

If you inhale strong enough you can sniff my snow

I went nuts. I only use to do maps for CT but I expanded a bit and I’m getting destroyed on Twitter hahaha.

I’m getting October 2011 vibes just opposite seasonal trend