weatherwiz

Unfortunately there is no bufkit location for dxr (dumb) and nothing relatively close. Closest would be HPN but I think that's bit too far southwest to be a good proxy. there probably would be dry slot concerns across much of CT for a time (GFS verbatim) but it seems like H7 would evolve in a nature which would get CT with good banding. I'm also noticing too that even on point-and-click soundings (plus bufkit profile locations), that soundings are colder then model 2M output.

Closet bufkit location is Waterbury, but it does rip there for some time

Even down in Connecticut, when you look at soundings and bufkit, it seems to paint a better picture then what the snow maps are advertising. Both NAM/GFS get BDL down to like 32-33 late overnight and then crank.

Oh man the GFS bufkit at ORH is unreal. 50-60 units of omega into the DGZ. Ratios skyrocket too...they would pile up like crazy. Don't be standing outside with a golf club in this

northern stream currently digging pretty beautifully. Greatest convection is deep across the Southeast right along the frontal zone. We'll just have to see how convection evolves (within the southern stream off the mid-Atlantic coast) later today. But FWIW, despite the differences at the sfc, the Euro mid-level evolution isn't bad at all.

weathermodels seems to be down ughhh

Or how about some Euro H5 evolutions to see what the hell is going on.

Here is 6z bufkit at BDL. Ratios aren't bad under the band (about what I was thinking under the band).

About to look at that now! Getting it loaded up

Outside of the immediate shoreline and within the valley, much of CT should do very well. What’s going to kill the valley is just the torched BL. Kinda sucks with the warm start this AM

Given the rate of deepening it does seem plausible. Ideally, you’d like to see the rapid deepening happen as the storm is to our south and moving over the benchmark. This way you’re maximizing you’re mid-level support and fronto over the region. in this case, the process happens a bit later then you’d like, but because the way the storm is evolving it also kind of helps us because it’s helping to prevent a total torch of the llvls. But when storms bomb out too quickly they become too wrapped up too quickly and you wrap the colder air into the center and cut off warm/moist inflow.

Oh absolutely. I would not rule out CCB traversing much of CT. He’ll it could even take it’s sweet time going across the state if that upper level evolution verifies.

If we can get a slower occlusion I think we’ll get crushed.

Yeah you really can’t ask for too much better in that regard. Seeing these makes me feel better, but there are enough other flags which still hold some weight. But I would at least think if we see this trend with tomorrows guidance models will be a few ticks colder at the sfc

That H5 evolution on the GFs is a beaut

system not deepen so rapidly. It winds up very quickly so you're wrapping the cold air all the way around into the core and essentially cutting off warm/moist inflow. But for CT I would like to see the 700 low closing off south of LI and moving NE...it closes off near the Cape. South of /LI and tracking NE would get the band over us.

But if the NAM/3k didn't occlude so fast I think much of CT would be destroyed given mid-levels but the occlusion happens so quickly the CCB kinda of fizzles before the best goodies can get overhead

At least for the valley, I think it's just becoming too apparent we aren't going to overcome the torched BL. Even some of the more dynamical outputs we really struggle. But it's so freaking close. I guess it's not totally impossible for a tick 1-2F down tomorrow but idk

It occludes so quickly the warm/moist inflow is cut-off. This is something you'll end up seeing I think given the consistency with this aspect so I don't think this storm is going to be as prolonged as some anticipate

That is some serious dynamic cooling

Let's say this is more like 33F at the sfc...there is going to be serious power issues and tree damage

It's definitely a better look but holy crap is that warm. That's definitely a flag, but it would probably be more concerning if we see these BL temps continue into tomorrow's guidance.

The convection the models are chasing doesn't appear to be all that impressive. Here's a look at it from the HRRR but even on the other guidance it doesn't appear to be a well organized area of convection. It's almost like the models are just riding one massive supercell and going bonkers.

Pretty soon the next ten day potential will be a severe thread

Thanks... yes, it is embarrassing my concept and grasp of topography and how to incorporate that exactly on a map