weatherwiz

I don't know if we will see this with the new D2 but if the trends continue, I think we will see a 10% TOR somewhere. Now, it is important to note mlvl lapse rates aren't great which is going to scale things back to some degree. But what that probably means is the threat for higher-end, widespread severe is diminished. What we need to watch for, however, is dewpoint pooling. If we can pool dewpoints to 74-76 that will compensate some for the weak lapse rates.

I think the 12z NAM has beefed things up for tomorrow. I may start a thread but I'm playing SNES right now

probably next April

HRRR has been pretty consistent in evolving a cluster of storms across western Mass later and tracking across northern CT. Once again bulk shear is adequate for storm organization and instability will be plenty. Localized damaging wind gusts and maybe some hail within the stronger cores but mlvl lapse rates suck.

Definitely a refresher for some come Monday but short-lived. Not as intense as this week.

I scream, you scream, we all scream for CG’s

Yeah tomorrow looks scattered. May have to watch for some overnight convection too. it seems like the 18z models have sped up the timing of the front a bit too. But the primary focus for convection may be a pre-frontal trough. The shear is quite impressive, both speed and directional, and instability will be plenty. Lapse rates aren’t the best but they aren’t the worst either. Right now I would favor eastern NY (up around Albany) through western Mass, southern VT, and southwest NH. There are some indicators we could see a line of supercells from which is very abnormal for around here. If we don’t see discrete we could see a decent evening/early overnight snow with the approaching shortwave and good height falls.

Yeah I do recall guidance like 7-10 days ago having something. The GFS anyways has done a decent job with some of the last few waves and hinting at them 7+ days out.

Outside of a nice swirl I thought it always looked like crap and I don’t recall any guidance doing anything with it. Don’t even recall seeing any shower or thunderstorms in GA or FL outside of some widely isolated, afternoon heating driven stuff.

why was that swirl off Florida/Georgia designated with moderate probabilities for development?

The rotation of the feature is certainly evident and noteworthy but it’s also difficult to see if it connects with the cloud base. Maybe a land spout? Or a gustnado?

Wow!

Nows there’s an area I wouldn’t want to be in

not sure that is rotation. might be a bit divergent

The strike was just over 1/2 mile away

HUGE crash of thunder!!!!

certainly eye opening in terms of shear. Lots of other issues/flags though. Enough to probably prevent widespread cells but that just means there's more environment for discrete cells to work with.

The timing of the front REALLY sucks Sunday but if we can develop discrete cells Sunday afternoon (mid-to-late afternoon) there is a good combo if shear/instability.

cell coming up to my west!!!

gotta be dropping maybe 1.25'' hail. That is a nasty cell

Could be dicey there

Should be good there. Try and find a great viewing spot looking west!

This stuff going to take off moving across central Mass and northern CT

I don't think that is the case. It is very unstable just ahead of the boundary and the storm inflow is not coming from the more stable air. With weak forcing and only marginal shear, storms will be pulse type. You may see more organization with that stuff to the west.

Sunday though not sure about. The timing of everything really sucks for here, however, there is some room for a rouge supercell or two (probably western Mass into southern VT/NH) Sunday afternoon.