weatherwiz

maybe we can muster up a severe threat

What I do love in the winter, especially now is my office room at home has east facing windows, and with the neighbor cutting down the two pine trees last year I get ample sunshine blasting in the room so it can be like 20 out and as long as it is sunny I get toasty.

This sounds weird to say but I would almost rather have 30-35 and sunny over 45-50 and clouds.

Obviously winter is fun because of snow and potential threats. Tracking a real threat for multiple days is probably one of the most fun things in the world. But other than that, it can be really depressing here. Warm season is just so short. Sure we can get some very warm days in March and April but yup...we don't really do sustained warmth that early. Sometimes we have to wait until like the second half of June for sustained warmth and by then it's really just two months of it and by then we've already peaked in terms of sunset. I know it's just cyclical and we're in a horrific cycle for snowfall right now but hopefully one of these upcoming winters that tide will change. The <5:00 sunsets and close to 7 AM sunrises and chilly/dry/cloudy weather freaking sucks. Its much more enjoyable when snow comes with it.

We've made it out of the qualifying rounds. Our gold medal period is right around the corner. All we gotta do is go out there and take it.

It's a very inspirational speech...has me craving hockey and snow right now. Unfortunately can get neither right now.

You can have an entire week or two or whatever period average above for temperatures...you could easily get a day or two of below-average which coincides with a storm and snow. Like Herb Brooks said, "One game. If we played them 10 times they might win 9. But not this game. Not tonight." We could have above average temperatures 9 out of 10 days and still come out of that stretch with a big snow event. It just takes that one day.

Just for haha's I'm super tempted to dig a bit deeper and look at the 384 hour data. I'd be willing to be that after assessing everything, the result would be a look which would be more likely to favor below-average temperatures vs. above-average.

When I saw you posted in here I knew it was going to be something reflecting warmer temperature anomalies. And 384-hr 850 temperature anomalies...and using a static hour to signify a pattern change

I get how some are concerned with suppression but I just don't see suppression being a large concern. Too me it seems like pattern during the favorable period would favor potential for cyclogenesis anywhere from just off the Delmarva to mid-Atlantic coasts. Doesn't necessarily mean we get crushed as storm track could still be slightly out-to-sea but not sure I would qualify that as suppression.

I think we made it 2 pages without a snow map. Must be a record

Maybe we should just stop posting snow maps altogether. Nothing but a waste of bandwidth and space.

+28 is absurd. Yeah the diurnal spreads have been quite low. MOS/NBM also sucked for a few days this week with low temperature forecasts...there were a few days mins ended up like 5-7F above guidance.

what was your low?

Of your 69K posts on here I'd have to wager about 65K of them revolve around the bolded sentence

This is what we need. Mid-January I was so busy I didn't get a chance to divulge into this, but was there coupling last month when we had some blocking? I was expecting we would see coupling at some point this winter, though I thought it might be sooner.

Ahhh thank you! I didn't even think of going about it that way. This makes so much more sense.

My math or statistics may be incredibly rusty but how do you handle situations with outliers where your lower limit would be a negative number but obviously its impossible for any of the data to be negative? I don't ever remember going over something like that. But the way these past few winters have gone, we may as well consider the negative.

ha...I did the math in my head wrong, yeah the difference is 1.4'' I was thinking 1.8'' so that's that error. For the outliers I just did it in Excel. The work is at the top there to the right. I found Q1, Q3, and so forth. The lower limit was -10 and the upper limit was 83.2.

I like how that blocking evolves

I'm down with extending a winter pattern into mid-March if it means we'll have some snow threats. But once April comes...I'm ready for 70's and 80's. I want to watch some Bruins playoff games outside. I wouldn't mind though if we got a stretch in March where we got into the 60's or even tickled lower 70's.

Not pretending they didn't happen, just curious to see how outlier seasons skew the overall data/mean. I was anticipating there would be some lower outliers. But you can see I did have a column setup for SD and was going to do that next...just didn't get to it (although it takes like 20 seconds). At least with BDL right now, its interesting that the top 3 seasons are enough to increase the overall mean by nearly 2''. But at the end of the day that's not overly significant.

PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

There were no low outliers (to my surprise)

I will start off by saying how infuriating it is how irresponsible record keeping has been, especially with the debacle from the mid 1990's through the early 2000's. I totally forgot what happened (I know Will has explained it many times) but records were lost and there are also many questions about the accuracy of some of the data. I don't want to divulge into this any more because it drives me crazy. Anyways, one thing I've really thought about the past few years when discussing average snowfall (in relation to the season) is whether or not averages are being swayed by anomalous seasons which would be defined as outliers (when performing statistical methods). As far as I know, averages are just reported by taking the sum of seasonal totals and diving them by the number of years on record. Nice, easy, simple, however, when dealing with datasets which can have a wide array of variation, you run the risk of outliers. One great example of this is with the tornado database. If you were to calculate the average number of tornadoes from 1950 to say 2015, the mean is going to be skewed quite a bit by the 2011 season. Now there are other factors involved here but just making a reference. What is the point of this thread? Moreso a place to just collect my thoughts but also open to discussion and maybe through collaboration we can all create some sort of database which is legit and maybe even fill in the gaps on some of the missing years. For what I did below with BDL, I would like to do for other stations as well. I also hope I didn't make any errors below. I'm not usually up this late Anyways, I was curious with BDL. The data was obtained from https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Year was defined as July 1 - June 30 Notes: The long-term average is 44.8''. With the outliers removed, the average drops to 43.4''. Not a huge drop. Again, this is just based on the data from acis. Who the hell knows what is right and what is not right.