weatherwiz

There is a strong fetish to see major blizzard's modeled 10+ days out and if models don't show that it's winter cancel. How many of our big snowstorms really didn't come into the picture until like 4-5 days out? I know Will made a post a while back that models have certainly gotten better and to the point where we can give D10 threats some credibility but so many storms really aren't catching eyes until 4-5 days.

This is fantastic, thank you! Wish this came up in my google search.

Do archived MJO phase diagrams exist? I'm curious to know if there are phase diagrams dating back to 1979 where you can see MJO wave progression throughout the year.

I don't work in energy so I don't know what it's like "behind the scenes" but too me, long-range is about understand pattern evolution and understanding how certain pattern regimes influence week-to-week or day-to-day sensible weather. At least on the boards and social media for anyone who loves weather, I think the premise of long-range forecasting is misunderstood and used incorrectly. Most people who love weather love snow, that isn't a secret. So as we get closer to winter everyone is focusing on long-range and wants to know whether it will snow in their backyard...that is all everyone cares about. This isn't the point of long-range forecasting. If people are going to "verify" model performance and patterns based on what happens in their backyards, well that is on them. I may be incorrect in this, but I would wager that the skill in forecasting temperatures (anomalies) weeks to even a month or two out is probably higher than most would think. Forecasting anything outside of this variable is going to greatly impact accuracy and increase variability. Even in a "favorable" pattern, many pieces still have to fall in place to produce a storm (or well just say snow because that is what everyone wants). How shortwaves are traversing the pattern, how they evolve, and how they interact are somewhat correlated to the actual pattern, but timing/speed is more related to other factors. There is more to verification and scores and success than whether someone gets snow in their backyard.

meant to say what you would expect to see during the transition from phase 1 to 2 and that is exactly what is shown with the GFS/CMC look @brooklynwx99 just posted.

they barely have skill to forecast temperatures the following day

This has to be an extremely encouraging sign. You can see the MJO has fizzled out within the crappy phases but the support for not only the MJO signal to re-emerge, but become pretty strong in phase 1 is very good. Obviously there is skepticism with how models handle MJO wave progression, however, you can see that we've been very slowly crawling towards more favorable times. The demise of the MJO and slower eastward progression is probably why we've been seeing the models "push back" the pattern. Actually, if you look at some of the ensembles posted here the past few days, they have striking similarities for what we'd expect in MJO phase 1. I wouldn't worry too much about what OP runs are showing in the extended range. With an MJO of this magnitude there is going to be a ton of interference and feedback on the guidance and I think you can see this well on today's GFS run with some wild H5 evolutions.

Curious about this...how many people/businesses have generators in Maine?

It's a pretty decent pattern for some severe in the deep South. Been quite consistent for some days now.

Enjoy the rainstorm on the 27th. I'll be enjoying some severe weather down in Florida ahahahahahahahahaha

What probably really sucks is they really can’t get out there and do anything or fully assess until conditions improve. Probably have to wait until morning at this rate. It’s interesting to see how much of a difference a 30-40 or 35-45 mph gust event is vs something along the lines of 50-60. I certainly was not expecting that. When we see potential for widespread winds of 50-60+ they need to be played up. Just look at what happens in the summer when we get gusts 50-60. Granted the trees are fully leaved but it doesn’t take much to knock trees down here and for power outages to soar.

Wow 423,000 for Maine now.

400K for Maine

Up to 393K in Maine. Still with a potent LLJ there too and some pretty decent 2-6km lapse rates with that batch of heavy rain moving through.

They had a Ground Stop for a few hours. Was watching on FlightAware. Seemed like they were still operating and trying to land flights that were approaching but several were also in a holding pattern. Probably an uneasy feeling for many flying in the area today.

Just imagine once we get a derecho ripping 70-90 mph gusts to blow through. That would be fun to create a simulation of the advancing derecho and simultaneous power outages as the grids just explode.

Good news, you should tomorrow night

Certainly feeling optimistic where guidance continues to hedge moving towards the end of the month and into January. That pattern would certainly lead to the potential for some favorable storm tracks. Hopefully if we can get some coastal scenarios, even if there isn't a great deal of Arctic air available, we'll get saved by climo.

357K w/o power in Maine now. Can they make a run for 400K?

I wouldn't mind strapping an anemometer to me and going on the roof

Got very dark here and wind kicking back up. Wondering if winds will get strong enough to knock fence down.

Quite impressive

Highest this century? They've had to gust higher than 90 since 2000 in some of those other monster storm.

Good news is it looks like power outages are starting to drop in Connecticut. Maine looks like they may blow past 300,000.

Two big differentiators between last week and this were 1) Track was a bit further west 2) We were already dealing with a pretty intense storm moving up the coast, unlike last week where I believe much of the deepening was occurring within our latitudes. Both these factors, especially a track more west helped to really pump in some higher theta-e air. Temperatures in the upper 50's to lower 60's with dews not far off helped substantially aid in the mixing of winds. There was also certainly some convective enhancement and on a more widespread basis. This was absolutely without a doubt a pretty high impact storm. This is exactly why events like last week can't be hyped up. People end up downplaying these setups often because they are way too overhyped and people don't prepare or plan as properly. This is why communication is such a huge factor in the field of forecasting. You want to save the strong language for when it is absolutely needed. Let's say this event did not pan out...if we went on the heels of back-to-back events where winds were hyped and it didn't pan out...people are going to continue to lose confidence and just brush off this potential in the future. Weather gets hyped so much that I think its actually starting to impact lives and lead to injuries and deaths...and it's because everything gets hyped up so much when something significant actually happens, you get people who just brush it off and end up putting themselves in harms way. Now you can place blame on people for not taking the warning, but when everything is hyped up and nothing happens...people are just going to stop taking these situations seriously. The hype for this event totally played out and it was needed...but what happened last week certainly probably lead people to downplay this.