weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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quite a bit of spread but pretty clear to see why the spread exists. stronger vs weaker I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some spread arise over the next day or two before things tighten up again. Only question will be is when things tighten up again, is it towards the north/stronger camp or south/weaker? -
The EPS train has arrived at the station, all aboard. Next stop, wintry New England.
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It's interesting how last winter, I think it was January too, we were in La Nina state but we had that period where the pattern was very EL Nino like. Now we're in EL Nino moving into January and we have a La Nina like pattern. Certainly not seeing the ocean/atmosphere couple, or struggling to do so. This I think was hinted extremely well by the MEI.
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yeah...I was more just looking at it from an overall perspective and eliminating the fine details. Maybe just a coping mechanism
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Agreed...def still thinking the coast is going to have at least some mixing issues with this. What I liked on the Euro was the evolution of the storm and where it starts to strengthen and how it strengthens as it passes south of Long Island. Putting away track and how many mb deep it is, I love to see the strengthening occur like that because we're far from occlusion and going to maximize the dynamics and amount of moisture being thrown into the CCB.
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I forgot they have the euro soundings. I should explore that and maybe ditch weathermodels.
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I wish I could see euro soundings. Looks like it may have a funky warm layer in there
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so anyways...the euro. I'll take that pounding
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I hope the Tampa Bay Lightning get stranded in Boston Saturday night.
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Pretty interesting to see the major divergence between 114 and 120 there. Tells you where the spread begins to evolve with this system. Yup goal posts are still pretty wide for sure...although still not wide enough for Chad Ryland
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looks like some of the members are going to be monster hits for the interior but yeah, an evident shift north of the GEFS.
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That, unfortunately, is going to end up being a concern somewhere for someone.
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Potentially, however, that high is fairly strong and in a good spot. But certainly could be a concern for warmer air along the coast.
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There's been a definite trend for less confluence the past few days...hopefully something that doesn't come back in later runs. Confluence can be super tricky
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I actually wonder (verbatim) if we would see two deform bands in that scenario.
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Talk about maximizing snowgrowth. This is a pretty dreamy run really. snowfall rates would be pretty intense.
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I don't hate the GFS...but a little worried seeing potential for a dual low signal at 117 hr.
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Good point. That will certainly be tied into the overall track of the system, but if we get something more north this could end up being an underrated aspect to the forecast...one that could yield some busting (on the higher side) in spots.
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Yeah when I looked out the window this morning I had to do a double take b/c it legit looked like a dusting of snow. That's a good observation about the excess moisture...wonder if that certainly did play a role. It was quite an interesting frost. I guess that's how you know when things have been pretty meh...when frost is the most interesting thing to have happened
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That was some pretty thick frost this morning. I couldn't even scrape it off the back windshield. Had to wait for the defrogger to do its work.
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You can see how that is a distinct possibility here. Just looking at it from a verbatim perspective, but if you have the low passing south of Long Island with a 50+ knot 850 jet feeding moisture into -6C 850 air there is going to be an abundance of moisture thrown into the CCB. Would probably see a pretty hefty band materialize in this situation. Sometimes this can be jackpot city for southern Connecticut just inland.
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Absolutely...we're still at the stage where anything is possible really. Based on guidance assessment (ensembles and OP) these past few days we have a wide variety of potential outcomes and solutions. Spread is still high. Hopefully these next few days we start reducing the spread some and eliminating some of these potential solutions which are on the table. I'm still excited - given this is something to track, but important to keep a level head and understand the final outcome may not be what we want.
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Excellent initial post for this! Great point too about the tendency for over-amplification in the medium range. I know you and several others have really hit on this the past few years.
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ehhh honestly sometimes the word trend is overused. I think Wes (Usedtobe) used to say at any conference he hated that word trend. We have seen several potential events these last several winters where ENS support was very high several days out and even some good OP support in the 3-4-5 day range only for us to start getting inside 72 hours and things just fall apart.
