Thank you!
Was doing a blog post and wanted to show something. But realized I could use the EPS
I know we're getting out of ensemble range but good to use to illustrate some thoughts.
Looks like the GFS is digging slightly deeper with the northern stream. This is probably going to crush the Berkshires down into northwest Connecticut.
This is probably going to be my biggest fear with this system and something that is going to make forecasting totals extremely difficult. Double band structure. Maybe there could be a scenario where the two converge.
The GFS would be a major hit for a large part of Connecticut. It would be dumping snow...probably 2-3'' per hour type stuff. CCB would pivot and rot over Connecticut.
Not great though to see the 0z NAM continue with the trend of less southern stream involvement overall. But the southern stream may be more challenging to deal with then the northern stream really. Convection in the mid-south tomorrow and Sunday could have an influence on southern stream energy.
Obviously it's the NAM still in the clown range, but I don't think it is as good as it seems. It's (hopefully) a bit too amp happy but verbatim, we may be dealing with major dryslot issues quickly with all the goods well west.
Getting my haircut in preparation for the storm. Don’t need all this hair adding excess weight while I’m standing outside having heavy, wet snow sticking to my head. Don’t need vertebrae damage
I feel pretty confident this will be a crushing from southern VT down through the Berks into Litchfield County. It certainly gets more challenging outside of this area, but my leaning is this will be rather impactful for many.
It is hard to hate this, you're digging the trough into WV now and subsequently building heights a bit north of Maine. Clown range, but hopefully a good sign