weatherwiz

I don't like seeing this for CT

Not only is NAM pretty juiced but was looking at some soundings and it has one helluva MAUL. 700-500 lapse rates are quite steep. We get maximized lift in there and snowfall rates could end up being something like 2''+ per hour for a bit somewhere.

That is a very funky HRRR run. Quite a bit going on with some funky warm layers and looks like some dry or drier pockets mixed in. Luckily its the HRRR in the extended range

Happy to hear all is well

Thinking a good 5-8'' of snow across Connecticut with about 3-5'' along the immediate shoreline. Going to put together a map later this afternoon after work stuff all done. The 5'' side though along the immediate shoreline may be too high though but we'll see after assessing everything in full after Euro.

I will say...I'm just glad it was nothing like 18z. I still don't think the NAM is worth a crap with this system until its mesoscale time but if it stayed coarse it would have to be a bit of a caution flag.

Hello CT

I hope the severe threads this summer can elicit more serious discussion

There are two things I am really curious about: 1) How cold temperatures can get tomorrow night 2) How much temperatures climb Saturday Should probably do an airmass trajectory on this, but looks like the airmass is advecting in from the central states. Guidance for last night within the mid-west was wayyy colder than what verified. Not sure this means anything but just a thought in my mind. It clouds very quickly and with not much mixing, temperatures may not rise all that much from whatever they fall to Friday night. Obviously along the immediate coast temps probably get well into the 30's but that should be a pretty shallow layer. Ultimately, I don't see a track north enough to warrant concerns for mixing or wet snow except for immediate shorelines

18z GFS bufkit for BDL. Still some solid lift into the DGZ. I switched snow ratio from cobb to max temp in profile just to smooth it out a bit. Otherwise it looks like my heartbreak watching this Bruins game

Definitely a nice hit on the Euro. Looks a bit progressive which could make some of the higher range potential difficult to obtain but who cares. Great hit for all

I haven't seen a whiff like that since Brad Marchand's failed shoot out attempt a few years ago.

Lift too...lift is extremely important as is snowgrowth. You can have all the QPF you want and favorable thermals, if lift and snow growth suck you're going to be disappointed.

He may be counting the snow blowing off the roof

euro definitely as wild as the gfs is but its still a pretty decent hit it looks like.

I first came across that from you. It's such an amazing product/tool. Oh man...I know what you're talking about I think with the SDs. I might have that bookmark actually (though might be on my personal computer). It is possible that is no longer operational as well. If I can find it I'll drop it and see if that's what you're referring too.

I would like to send you a bottle of wine

Indeed, one of my favorite part about winter storms with great banding is seeing that product

Unfortunately no. Sent a message to Walt. They're aware but it's a low priority fix right now but hopefully soon.

Fairly unstable in the mlvls

Yup that is certainly key for sure.

12z GFS BUFKIT BDL!!!!!!! Oh my please verify...holy cow.

One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1.

The GFS was certainly fun and exciting but still going to exercise caution for now. Still holding off on making a snow map until 12z models tomorrow. We've seen this script before...we got to about a range we're in now and start seeing some impressive solutions (from multiple models) only for everything to taper some the following suite of model runs. I've been bitten big time in the past riding the pony while it was eating. I'll wait for it to chew, swallow, and maybe poop first.