weatherwiz

Considering the longer dataset of the ensemble ONI, I'm a bit concerned with the lack of weak events

Posted this in the ENSO thread, but with talk of Nino this is the different flavors we can get during Nino's in terms of temps. Plenty more of composites to come

I really think what makes things worse is we can't even really buy light snow events...forget getting big winter storms. I don't know the statistics on this, but our years which are considered above-average is it due to big storms, a ton of smaller storms, or a combination of both? But we can't even buy several 2-4'' events. We can't even get snow flurries.

I don't think it's totally wrong to hold out for March. I mean sure the odds historically aren't great, but they aren't zero. You never know what can really happen moving through February and into March. Something could occur that could totally shake the pattern and we've seen that happen before. Again, the probability is very low, but not zero and that's all that really counts.

This is what really intrigues me with long-range. For the past 3 winters now, we have seen models (ensembles) go bonkers with these pattern configurations in the medium-to-long range, but we never get there. There has got to be something with the physics of the models in these atmospheric states in which the calculations of the physics just go to this output. So either something isn't being handled right within the models, some equation is way off, or heck, maybe there is too much weight being placed on one variable or a magnitude of order is off. This is just me thinking incorrectly out loud but it's been a constant theme these past 3 winters so there has to be a reason.

Looking back at December I really think it was the Arctic domain that screwed us more then anything. There was so much excitement for blocking and a negative NAO, but I think the structure and placement of the anomalies hurt us. I think if we had seen these anomalies farther to the north and east we would have been smoked the second half of the month. I guess you could argue having the height anomalies in the GoA farther east too. But look at the 10-20 and then 20-25. If that block is farther east the trough axis is shifted east and more favorable for us. IIRC, there seems to be a lot of optimism for a west-based NAO block, but IMO, an east-based is what we really want. When you get west-based (and displaced south) with a strong anomaly, you're playing with serious fire and risking higher height anomalies extending into our latitude.

can you post a global look?

@40/70 Benchmark have you done your EL Nino composites yet? This is the breakdown I have using the Ensemble ONI and ONI. Note: On paper I do a breakdown of strong vs. super strong but in composites I group together (but may also do separate for composites)

Well here is a composite of all EL Nino temperature anomalies. Started to get rolling on EL Nino composites.

or Celtics...about the only two things going right.

This severe season is probably going to blow too. Everything blows

Part of the problem too is one's expectation and interpretation and also there are so many products offered and available and people run away with them and it just leads to chaos (Twitter is a great example of this). For example, with winter weather, you see model snowfall maps tossed around left and right and some try to use those solely for forecasting a storm way out or to hype and just give an unrealistic expectation. With severe weather you see it with the potential hazard types on the SHARPpy plots (people go buts when it shows TORNADO or PDS TORNADO) or the UD helicity swaths or SIG Tor and now these CIPS analogs. But I don't think models are as terrible as some make them out to be, it's just they're being misinterpreted.

At least we're gaining daylight (albeit slowly) in the late afternoon. I don't remember who I was talking to about this a few weeks back, but one thing I've noticed as I get older is how much these early sunsets really affect my mood. The only time when they're fun is when it's snowing (like a really good storm).

Well snow all done here...actually can see blue sky through the thinning clouds.

Back to snow here with some decent snow growth.

There were shitty winters even pre-Industrial era. We need to flush the atmosphere of this prolonged Nina crap we've been in. Now I don't want to be the one to count my chickens before they shit, but I am willing to bet (and I don't have scientific reasoning to back this now) that next winter will begin what will be a solid several year stretch. We go through these cycles of several meh years and several great years.

The GFS/Euro seem to be in relatively different agreement with the 500 pattern through Sunday night and then just start to diverge like crazy moving through Monday morning with the Arctic/Atlantic. Insane

confluence is a **** for the models to handle. We've seen situations in the past where around this time range the OP's do a complete 180 for a few runs. It's a pretty volatile northern stream...lots to resolve.

back to rain here or at least a mix. Happy for the coating.

What do the weeklies show for May?

winding down here but even with super light rates the ptype is still snow

Well this explains the golf ball sized flakes. Had some yellow pixels overhead. Flakes size back up too now! If this keeps up snow will accumulate more quickly then W’s in the Bruins win column IMG_0553.MOV

IMG_0552.MOV

MASSIVE flakes right now. It's like golf ball sized snow

If the system amps up too early we absolutely could see rain and rain well inland. At this point, that scenario is just as plausible as a significant winter storm down to the coast. We're going to have to hope for at least some degree of confluence