weatherwiz

I am very disappointed in this winter, or at least this month. I am very happy I got 10.5'' in that storm a few weeks back and earlier this week got like 3-4'' and to fall during the day when I can just work at my desk and watch it snowing outside. Now February could deliver, but I for sure thought we would have been smacked this month. While I was aggressive in my winter thinking, it was certainly in the back of my mind it may not work out that way. What's been the more frustrating aspect though is the trolls who just come in here now and then and waste 2 of their 5 posts claiming to be the next Messiah or whoever and said they knew how this winter would be because of the EL Nino strength. That is hog wash bullshit. I've said this before, but when it comes to long-range or seasonal forecasting and getting into specifics such as seasonal snowfall or understanding what patterns will deliver and when, we're lacking something to help with this understanding. When it comes to winter storms in the Northeast, we have the Northeast Snowstorms books which is the meteorology version of the Bible. These books are absolutely incredible. When it comes to severe weather/tornadoes we have Significant Tornadoes book and studies on major outbreaks. Essentially we have an uncanny amount of information on events and patterns which produced. I know the Northeast Snowstorms volumes go into some of the near hits and misses, but IMO we really are lacking in this department. I really wish we had the ability to create some database on this. We all know and understand ridge in west and trough in east is generally good for winter lovers in the Northeast. But this doesn't always work out and what we don't know is the probability. There has been work done by various forum members over the years breaking down snowfall statistics and typing into ENSO phase, ENSO structure, and even incorporating NAO, AO, PDO, etc. None of the correlations ever seemed strikingly high though. One thing I want to do soon is go back and revisit December/January and create daily composites and watch how everything unfolded day-to-day. Part of what makes things worse too is how we are assessing and looking for storm threats. I remember back when I first joined the boards and even through the early 2010's...there would be alot of focus on upper-levels and pattern evolution. Now that still happens and some do try to provide that insight but it gets drowned out. Now its just OP SLP/QPF maps 300+ hours out being used as a baseline to justify there is a storm potential or just claiming an upcoming stretch has "potential" because the snowfall maps for a period show 40''.

Thank you! It's certainly not easy at all. It's one of, if not probably the worst part of life (at least on an individual level). Maybe in the grand scheme of things there are worse but this definitely sucks.

Thank you! Unfortunately, this is not something she will recover from so it’s the stage of just being comfortable. Not really sure. It smelled like plastic burning or something even worse.

Well this was scary. I’m visiting my mom in the hospital and all of a sudden I smell something burning so I’m checking around the room and go into the hall. Then I turn back into the room and smoke started pouring out from the ceiling vent. Thank God I was there…it was pretty quiet on the floor. She’s on oxygen too which could have been extremely bad.

We should get another re-load of the pattern moving into February. We'll certainly still have some wintry threats though through the end of the month. They'd all probably be similar to what we're looking at for next Monday/Tuesday where we may need to rely on high pressure to the north to reinforce and lock in cold. While the upper pattern looks like crap, if we can keep moving sfc highs southeast across Canada we'll have some shots.

I second this.

Been super busy with alot going on but it's great to see this lining up to the thoughts some had. It's also great to see the GFS coming around to those thoughts as well. I had a feeling the GFS was just not handling this well the other day. Certainly may not be a "big storm" but its something.

Holy shit that's awesome

I don't think using snow maps is a viable way of looking for improvements over run-to-run

These are essentially like summer thunderstorms with more powerful dynamics and less instability. Ultimately, some towns get smoked and other don’t. Some get light stuff and some see nothing at all.

Actually I didn't even see that stuff down in NJ (busy with some other stuff) but was looking more at the ingredients. Anyways, that stuff in NJ should nail CT too. Going to be a region wide squall line of snow and strong winds. Snowacho?

sorry for the delay Overall, the line of snow squalls will probably be north of CT but would still expect scattered snow squalls to move across the state.

yes

Mesos also developing around 100 J/KG of SBCAPE through the day as the mid-level lapse rates steepen. If you close your eyes it almost feels like May tracking thunderstorms

Here is a great tie into what Will mentioned in his opening post with positive voriticty advection and a response at the sfc with the kink in the isobars. You can see it occurring in real time now.

Yeah I think it will eventually tune into a scenario where it paints us with widespread at least light snows and accumulating. Still can't rule out some low-end advisory at least somewhere in the region.

I know there's been alot of posts with the "storm vs. no storm" but I don't really think that is the case. The GFS has always had something, its just a matter of where the baroclinic zone resides. There certainly will be a wave of low pressure which develops within the South which moves off the Southeast coast and then rides northeast along the zone. If that zone is further northwest, we increase the potential for snow. If it is further southeast then we decrease the chance. But I think there are other factors as well. This is now 3 winters in a row we've seen these significant Arctic blasts penetrate deep into the South with potential for some significant wintry precipitation within the South. At least from my experience the GFS has done handled these well, particularly with precipitation forming along it. The NAM seems to have a better handle. Not sure how much of an influence this has on things but the GFS also tends to get way too aggressive with the cold (at least MOS does). So it is possible this is one reason why the GFS seems to have a SE bias in these situations.

ptype maps are about as garbage as snow maps

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

That 700-500 lapse rates is pretty absurd for around here. I've seen 7.5-8 om winter with these Arctic vorts but nearing 9...wow

yes

18z NAM bufkit. Pretty good signal for gusts 55-60 with the squalls.

18z GFS Bufkit at BDL (this is a bit overdone). I'll post the NAM in a follow up post (which may be a bit underdone) but snow squall warnings tomorrow?

I was just suggesting a new thread to keep the events separate, especially with how quickly threads grow. I don't think a significant hit is likely Tuesday, but I would not rule out some sort of accumulating snow event whether that be 1-2'' or 3-4''.

I would go ahead and make a new thread IMO.