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calculus1

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Everything posted by calculus1

  1. Regardless of Webb's maps, your forecast was the closest to verification of anyone's that I saw,@griteater . Much better than the TV mets and the NWS on this one, especially outside the mountains. Well done, sir. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  2. Also, no 3-inch totals in Lenoir. I have family that lives there, and I visited Saturday morning. Most of the snow was already gone by then, if not in shade. Maybe they had an inch, at best, prior to melting commencing. I would question anyone's measurement ability if they think they got 3 inches of snow in Lenoir, except perhaps on top of Hibriten Mt (the mountain with the lit star at Christmas). Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  3. I would also contend that no one in Hickory had an inch of snow. Two dustings (one at dawn and one at 4 PM) might add up to 0.5 inch, though. Baker's Mt in Catawba County did have between 1-2 inches, but not Hickory. Their elevation sure helped, I suppose. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  4. I now have nothing falling from the sky, but I managed to get a re-coating of the ground before it all stopped. I'm not sure to what two coatings add, but I'm going to call it a grand total of 0.5 inch for this storm (which I now assume has ended IMBY). That's a rather disappointing result when the winter storm warning was for 2-4 inches, and all I managed were two separate dustings, one at 7:00 AM and another at 4:30 PM. On the bright side, I did get to see it snow almost all day long, at varying degrees of intensity, but none greater than the 3:30 - 4:15 PM window.
  5. Yeah, it's been rippin' the proverbial fatties for about a half hour now. Easily re-coated all the grassy surfaces. If it would do this for a few hours, we might actually get to 2-4 inches, but I fear there's not too much time left here in Hickory. Earlier today has been steady light snow. This is finally moderate to heavy. It's been nice to see it all day, despite the lack of significant accumulation to this point. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  6. We can add Brad Panovich's Twitter feed to the whining thread. He's whining about why people are picking on him and how they don't listen. https://twitter.com/wxbrad
  7. Just light snow, off and on, here in NE Hickory. The ULL is going to have to produce some serious rates this afternoon for anything to accumulate. Temperatures at ground level are not conducive to accumulation otherwise. I [email protected] was being a bit pessimistic in his final forecast, but he may prove to be too optimistic for all locations outside the mountains. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  8. Just spitting snow here in NE Hickory. The heavier returns are just to my west. However, the motion of the precipitation seems to be shifting more SW to NE. Hopefully, I will get into more solid rates soon. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  9. Light snow now in NE Hickory. Beautiful to watch fall. [emoji4] Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  10. 32.6/32 here in NE Hickory right now. A dusting to a half inch on every non-paved surface. It appears to be lightly sleeting right now. Eager for the ULL to crank up... Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
  11. ^ Six-ten inches of snow for Hickory? I hope DT is correct, but I'm not banking on that.
  12. Latest NWS GSP Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast:
  13. Agreed. That was an excellent discussion. Really interesting and informative.
  14. WSW wording. Everything but the kitchen sink possible.
  15. WSW accompanied with a new probabilistic snowfall map:
  16. Brad P's update. He breaks out the soil temperatures graphic!
  17. 12Z GFSV16 appears to have legs for the early week system. Still evolving though...
  18. Here's the most recent meteogram for KHKY adjusted for 6:1 snow ratios (rather than the default 11:1). Based on this site, two inches or so also appears to be a good blend of the other models for my location.
  19. Recent SREF plumes for KHKY. I removed the highest three (each above 7 inches) and the lowest three outputs (each below 1 inch). That results in a mean of 4.17 inches for KHKY. Cut that in half, and two inches or so sounds about right for my locale, I would think. Let's see how it goes:
  20. That's living in the lee of the Apps... Argh! To be fair, the 3KNAM looked to have better potential for the lee than than did the 12K, but it ended at hour 60. Again, the onset of this event for areas outside the mountains continues to be delayed, while the duration may actually be lengthened a bit.
  21. Is it just me, or does this event seem to have slowed down a bit? It now seems like the bulk of the precipitation will come during the daylight hours, according to the GFS this morning.
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