calculus1

I hate these charts even more after reading this article. This article does not explain how ensembles work. It explains how WRAL takes the number of ensemble members that show 1 inch of snow for your backyard out of the total 50 that run with each ECMWF iteration to manufacture a “probability” or “chance” of 1 inch of snow in your backyard. That’s not a “probability” of 1 inch of snow. It’s a “percentage” of ensemble members that show the desired outcome. Those 50 ensemble members aren’t the only possible 50 outcomes for how the storm system could evolve, and they aren’t equally likely outcomes. It’s not a probability. If all it takes to be a meteorologist is being able to calculate percentages of ensemble members that show a particular outcome and making a pretty chart to graph it, then sign me up. Rant over. I’ll shut up now and promise to stop commenting on these charts even though people keep posting them in here.

Finished with 0.2 here in NW Hickory. Solid dusting. Enjoy it down east.

Went bowling with the family tonight. Came out to snow falling. Was quite surprised at how much was on the road. Road is completely covered in my neighborhood, with about 1/4 inch of dry snow. Seems we’re at the back edge of the precipitation shield now. Should be ending soon, I guess.

Still nada in Hickory, despite radar showing otherwise.

Yeah, but nothing reaching the ground. Yet.

Nothing in NW Hickory, even though radar is lit up overhead. Dry air…

The Canadian is glorious too. A snowstorm for most of the Carolinas.

Down to 36.7/35 IMBY. Loving the GFS trends. Hope they are reflected elsewhere.

Here is the 18Z RGEM:

Surface temperature is falling slowly IMBY. Down to 38.7/37...

850s continuing to move south and east...

Current 850mb temperatures:

https://twitter.com/SethMonteith150/status/1483902598734397442?s=20

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1483813679661563907?s=20

I am not a meteorologist, but I’ve got a pretty good background in mathematics. Having taught the calculus sequence for many years, I can tell you that most students do not find the concepts of calculus that difficult. However, the algebra required to manipulate expressions so that the calculus can be applied is where they get tripped up. My suggestion: really brush up on your algebra skills. Practice, practice, practice with your ability to factor complex polynomial, rational, and transcendental expressions. If you can do that well, you won’t have much difficulty with taking derivatives and integrals. Best wishes with wherever you decide to pursue your degree in meteorology. Don’t be afraid to talk to your professors and seek their help outside of class. Most will actually appreciate that you are interested in learning and are willing to apply yourself.

Here they go again with their meaningless precision probabilities… 32%….

Yeah, really like where the NAM is going at the end of the run. But, I can’t decide if that’s a good or bad thing, because it’s the 84-hour NAM. Virtually no wintry precipitation for anyone with the stalled out front unless you are on the immediate coastline. But, it gets cranking near the end and possibilities abound…

If it happened a lot, then I might be weary of it. But perhaps we should be leery or even wary of it? Uncertain.

LOL at @franklin NCwx in the main thread saying we need this thing more amped for a decent storm. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Same problem here in Black Mountain. The wind is fierce! I think most of the snow is just blowing, as most of the snow showers appear confined to the border counties according to radar, but I’m not positive. Visibility is less than a tenth of a mile right now. Crazy.

Incredibly windy here in Black Mountain this morning. The windows were rattling at various times over night. Want to get back out and go sledding again, but it looks bitterly cold out there. It snowed quite a bit more last night, but I can’t tell for certain how much because the wind has once again blown it all around. So, we have somewhere between 10 and 12 inches of snowfall here for a final count. Awesomeness!

Good snowfall still coming down here in Black Mountain. We’re around 10 inches.

So, what’s it looking like on the ground now? Still around 5 inches total? @avianman

Yeah, it was snowing great while we were sledding, which made it difficult to sled. Right now, the visibility is really low, though. So, it’s fun to watch it fall back from the warmth of the house. Back down to 28 degrees. 29 was the high.