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Everything posted by calculus1

  1. Latest WPC probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snowfall by noon 7:00 AM on Saturday:
  2. Apologies. It just seems that it should be obvious when all these maps come from TT or PW that you would just need to Google those names, and there would be the maps. It just seems like people ask for links to the same things over and over. But, you're right. I was a little short about it. You don't have to be quiet, though. Now that you can find these maps for yourself, feel free to post the ones that interest you in the thread.
  3. So, what are the conversations like right now at NWS GSP? I kind of imagine them going this way, but Isohume is, of course, more than welcome to correct me. A: "Should we hoist WWAs for the entire area?" B: "Nah, there's no way this is going to happen, right? I mean, right? Seriously." A: "But how long do we ignore the trends in the models?" B: "They're just models. That's all they are. Models." A: "Agreed, but what if they're right and we don't warn the public? We'll have tons of people caught off guard." B: "Yeah, but what if they're wrong and we do warn the public? Then, we'll have tons of people with pitchforks demanding their snowfall that never materialized!" I wouldn't want to be in their shoes. These guys have a very tough job. It's similar to refereeing sporting events. Somebody's always mad at 'em...
  4. Dude, everything you want is on Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather or weather.us.
  5. The RGEM is also really cold. KHKY doesn't get above 35 F tomorrow on that run and then falls into the upper 20s in the evening.
  6. It just totally redevelops the precipitation on Saturday for round 2 of snowfall. Wowza!
  7. Not sure what this Ferrier correction is, but this seems about right for the final call from the 00Z 12K NAM:
  8. Same for Hickory: Look for yourself right here: Just zoom in to your location on the map below: (I feel like I've already said this once today...) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
  9. I guess that's a good sign for us, then. Welcome back, HKY_WX! I hope you bring the good luck with you.
  10. Here's the latest forecast update too. My favorite part is the bolded... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 500 PM EST Thursday: New guidance trickling in continues to trend cooler and wetter, and while the NAM remains a cold/wet outlier, other 18z data shifting that direction lends confidence to a slight uptick in snowfall amounts. Will continue to be a battle between the cold air vs. moisture as is typically the case, but with the moisture expected to now make it farther into the mountains, the prudent course of action was to go ahead and hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for the upslope areas of the SW mountains, including the GA/SC mountains. Because NC`s advisory criterion is 2" in 12h and we have that over the South Mountains in Cleveland/Burke/Rutherford Counties, included those areas, but most locations <1500ft will be hard pressed to see anything more than a trace/dusting at this time (uh, with the current forecast that is - if the trends continue that may be pushed up as well). Concern is that in the prime overlap area of the SC mountains (QPF and temps), current forecast is getting close to warning criteria. Will continue to watch trends through the evening and especially with the overnight forecast. Otherwise, guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the precip potential for tonight and Friday. Deep moisture moves in this evening with decent upper divergence from the right entrance region of the upper jet. Short waves move over as the upper trough deepens to the west. Low level isentropic lift develops as well, but remains relatively weak with abundant moisture. Despite an overall cooling trend in forecast temps and surface wet bulb values, they remain above freezing through the night outside of the mountains, but do fall below freezing across the mountains. Of course, precip chances are lower where temps are colder since those locations are farther away from the better forcing. Therefore, have snow developing in the colder locations with mainly rain elsewhere. Forecast soundings show the freezing level dropping low enough for snow to mix in north of I- 85 with a change over possible across the Northern Foothills. QPF is light but could be enough for around half an inch of snow along and near the NC/GA to NC/SC border mountain locations. Snow would be less across the rest of the mountains. Categorical precip chances continue generally along and south of I- 85 Friday with likely chances north of there across the foothills to along the Blue Ridge. Good chance PoP west of there. Temps and surface wet bulbs remain cold enough for the precip to fall as snow across the mountains with a transition zone across the NC Foothills. Outside of these areas, freezing levels may fall low enough for snow to mix or possibly even briefly change over early in the morning mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor. QPF has increased on some of the guidance runs which increases the potential for advisory level snow across the NE GA and Upstate mountains, along with the Southern Mountains and possibly portions of the NC foothills. After final national guidance is in, we may need to update to post an advisory for those locations. While these accums would develop in grassy and elevated areas, it is still questionable how much accumulates on roads given the recent warmth and sunshine. Locations where the precipitation will be mixed or only a brief change over, no significant accums are expected with any small amounts limited to grassy or elevated areas.
  11. I think quite a few will be happy wherever snow happens to fall, and quite a few will be disappointed wherever it doesn't. It's as simple as that...
  12. Explore any site you want by using the interactive map below the plumes: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
  13. This rain event has already outperformed the paltry 0.25 inch I was forecast by GSP to pick up all afternoon and overnight. I'm sitting at 0.41 inch currently with continued light rain. Maybe this is a sign for this weekend too. Overperforming FTW!!!
  14. There are quite a few places who might claim to have prime spit, but I'm not sure that's something I'd brag about...
  15. I realized that I missed the Banter thread in my original post and request for info (thus, I am responding here), but I wanted to make sure you each knew how much I appreciated your responses. My wife and I are really looking forward to our first cold-weather vacation in our fifteen years of marriage. Thanks also for the PM responses, Alex, and I'm sure I might send a few more PMs as our vacation gets closer. Here's hoping you guys get dumped on in the days leading up to Christmas!
  16. Hey, guys, from the SE forum. I'm headed up to North Conway, NH, for the week before Christmas to celebrate my anniversary with my wife. What are my odds of seeing much snow this year? We were hoping to be able to cross country ski, snowshoe, and/or snowmobile. Even if the valley doesn't have snow, would the Presidential Range? Thanks for any input you can provide. Happy Thanksgiving! Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
  17. The high and low for the day are not weighted: They are simply reported as the actual highest and lowest temperature recorded on the calendar day. The average temperature for the day is what is weighted. Wikipedia has a good article on weighted averages, and their basic example is quite easy to follow, I think. Similar to Wikipedia's example of test scores, in weather, you can't just average the high and the low to get the average temperature for the day. Here's why: Suppose on any given day, the high were 60F and the low were 50F. It would appear as if the average temperature should be 55F, right? But, suppose that the low of 50F was recorded at midnight, and then the temperature quickly rose to 60F by 1:00 AM, before remaining a constant 60F for the rest of the calendar day. Thus, for the vast majority of the day (23/24 of the day, to be exact), the temperature was 60F. The average temperature for that calendar day would actually be much closer to 60F than it would be to 55F. Assuming we only took measurements on the hour -- in reality, you could take them a lot more frequently -- then your average would be calculated in this way: (50 + 60 + 60 + ... + 60 + 60)/24 = 59.58F (There were 23 measurements of 60F in the above calculation.) This is an extreme example, but I hope it helps illustrate the situation.
  18. It's a weighted average. You can't just average the high and the low. You have to account for how long the temperature remained at each measurement, including all the values between the high and the low. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
  19. Solid win for Duke tonight. Without Bagley for most of the game. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
  20. Same here. Topped out at 58 F. Currently heavy drizzle outside. Been foggy all day. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
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