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calculus1

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Everything posted by calculus1

  1. Not sure what this Ferrier correction is, but this seems about right for the final call from the 00Z 12K NAM:
  2. Same for Hickory: Look for yourself right here: Just zoom in to your location on the map below: (I feel like I've already said this once today...) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
  3. Here's the latest forecast update too. My favorite part is the bolded... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 500 PM EST Thursday: New guidance trickling in continues to trend cooler and wetter, and while the NAM remains a cold/wet outlier, other 18z data shifting that direction lends confidence to a slight uptick in snowfall amounts. Will continue to be a battle between the cold air vs. moisture as is typically the case, but with the moisture expected to now make it farther into the mountains, the prudent course of action was to go ahead and hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for the upslope areas of the SW mountains, including the GA/SC mountains. Because NC`s advisory criterion is 2" in 12h and we have that over the South Mountains in Cleveland/Burke/Rutherford Counties, included those areas, but most locations <1500ft will be hard pressed to see anything more than a trace/dusting at this time (uh, with the current forecast that is - if the trends continue that may be pushed up as well). Concern is that in the prime overlap area of the SC mountains (QPF and temps), current forecast is getting close to warning criteria. Will continue to watch trends through the evening and especially with the overnight forecast. Otherwise, guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the precip potential for tonight and Friday. Deep moisture moves in this evening with decent upper divergence from the right entrance region of the upper jet. Short waves move over as the upper trough deepens to the west. Low level isentropic lift develops as well, but remains relatively weak with abundant moisture. Despite an overall cooling trend in forecast temps and surface wet bulb values, they remain above freezing through the night outside of the mountains, but do fall below freezing across the mountains. Of course, precip chances are lower where temps are colder since those locations are farther away from the better forcing. Therefore, have snow developing in the colder locations with mainly rain elsewhere. Forecast soundings show the freezing level dropping low enough for snow to mix in north of I- 85 with a change over possible across the Northern Foothills. QPF is light but could be enough for around half an inch of snow along and near the NC/GA to NC/SC border mountain locations. Snow would be less across the rest of the mountains. Categorical precip chances continue generally along and south of I- 85 Friday with likely chances north of there across the foothills to along the Blue Ridge. Good chance PoP west of there. Temps and surface wet bulbs remain cold enough for the precip to fall as snow across the mountains with a transition zone across the NC Foothills. Outside of these areas, freezing levels may fall low enough for snow to mix or possibly even briefly change over early in the morning mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor. QPF has increased on some of the guidance runs which increases the potential for advisory level snow across the NE GA and Upstate mountains, along with the Southern Mountains and possibly portions of the NC foothills. After final national guidance is in, we may need to update to post an advisory for those locations. While these accums would develop in grassy and elevated areas, it is still questionable how much accumulates on roads given the recent warmth and sunshine. Locations where the precipitation will be mixed or only a brief change over, no significant accums are expected with any small amounts limited to grassy or elevated areas.
  4. I think quite a few will be happy wherever snow happens to fall, and quite a few will be disappointed wherever it doesn't. It's as simple as that...
  5. Explore any site you want by using the interactive map below the plumes: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
  6. You can view a total eclipse with the naked eye. No special viewing apparatus needed. The stars will appear when it reaches totality. You should not look at any partial eclipse with the naked eye, so you might want a welding mask to watch as it approaches totality. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk
  7. The NAM also did incredibly well with the thermal profiles and prolific totals in the NW portion of NC.
  8. Good read all around, burns. Thanks for sharing.
  9. Whatevs. That was a fantastic read this morning. I appreciate the humanity and personality put into the AFD. You can tell the forecaster actually enjoys her job. In addition, there was nothing "unprofessional" in what she wrote. Her style may not have been your preference (though I can't fathom why you would take issue with someone who apparently shares our entire board's fondness for winter weather), but she broke no unwritten rules. Lighten up, Francis. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk
  10. Not true. Your solid analysis is quite welcome there, burrel. Others' unfounded prognostications are not. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk
  11. So far, only 15% of the board are killsjoys when it comes to freezing rain. The rest of us at least like a bit of it. And over 60% of us are okay with the Armageddon scenario of no power for a week. That's the adventurous spirit I was hoping to find here amongst my SE brethren. BTW, we need a freezing rain emoticon of some sort.
  12. Wild weather is amazing no matter what type. My preference for wintry type precipitation events go in this order: snow > graupel > sleet > freezing rain > thunderstorms > rain
  13. Awesome family, franklinwx! Man, with four daughters, you're going to be spending quite a chunk of change on weddings at some point.
  14. Aha! The lack of a comma does make quite the difference. By the way, in the pic, are those snow pea pods located about 4/5 of the way up the burger?
  15. Congrats again, Burger. You have a lovely bride. I wish you many happy years of marriage.
  16. Yes, thumbs up to Mr. Bob being green-tagged. I'm sure you'll do the board proud.
  17. Sorry, not trying to offend. It was supposed to be more of a joke that obviously fell flat. I recant. Edit: I deleted my earlier post.
  18. I think you meant "...lack of knowledge..." "No lack of knowledge" would be a double negative implying they do have this weather knowledge you speak of, upon which they base their opinions.
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