calculus1

Wow, this sounds strangely familiar... Atmospheric healing at its best!

All your base are belong to us.

That wasn't my point. Sorry. My point was too vague and obviously fell flat. I was trying to imply that this "other board" is like the Illuminati. They are constantly referenced here, but no one seems to know a whole lot about them. Just like the supposed overlords of the entire world. Joke fail, on my part.

They are watching...

Well, at least we made a game of it. Glad we had a chance at the end. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

Ugh. 14-3. We don't have the offensive capability to come back from that deficit. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

Well, I'm a Panthers fan, and I'm legit worried too. New Orleans has beaten us twice already this season. Why would it be any different this time?

You're always winning, Mack.

You can really see the results of lake effect snow on this map up in the Great Lakes Region. It's also pretty crazy that it's snowed all the way down to the Mexico border in basically all of Texas, and yet portions of Kansas and Missouri have yet to see any measurable snowfall. That early December snowstorm path is very evident through the southeast, as is the recent New Year's storm: two storms and two different swaths, essentially mutually exclusive of each other.

Whoa! Hey, now, that's a little strong, man. Don't go that far, if you're wrong. That's like 25+ days in the future to predict. Lot can happen... Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

I'm pretty confident that pack's been in a sweat spot for this entire event and for days leading up to it. Now, if he could only find the sweet spot... Seriously, this must be so painful that you can't help but try to find the humor in it. I was very confident that pack, CR, and the gang would get a decent snow out of this. It seems my confidence was misplaced, and you guys were right all along. I really am sorry that you're missing out on this one, as of yet. I still think it will eventually fill in and you'll each get an inch or more, but this waiting must seriously suck. There's no other way around it.

I don't understand why the Raleigh people are so distressed about this opportunity. (That means you, Cold Rain and packbacker and...) You guys are more depressed and downcast than anyone I've seen in a long time. You have a legitimately good shot at accumulating snow, and you refuse to find solace or hope in anything. You seem to enjoy the doldrums and revel in it. It's become your badge of honor. You will have three inches of snow on the ground Thursday morning and will still refuse to believe that it's there. Come on, guys! Snap out of it! Go find some puppies, rainbows, and unicorns or something.

Mack, for the life of me, I have no idea why you pay attention to TWC's forecast for you. Go to the NWS forecast. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

You sure seem very concerned with whatever is happening on the "other" board, even though you claim to be happy that you are no longer affiliated with it. Just jump on board here and ignore whatever happened over there.

There is no need for people to take regional desires personally, in the storm thread. Of course, Raleigh- and Charlotte-area posters are looking for any hint that the storm may throw precipitation further back inland. This would probably mean that the beaches get rain, but it doesn't mean that Raleigh and Charlotte hate the people who live at the beach. Those who live at the beach have very little desire to see this trend NW much at all: they are content with where we stand. It doesn't mean that they relish seeing Charlotte and Raleigh miss out on snow and that they secretly thrive off dashing their dreams. Each area naturally wants snow more for their backyards than for any other location. It is what is. Accept it. If you want more people to post about impacts in your backyard, then look in the mirror and step to the plate. We have a few posters who are very good at addressing board-wide effects, but most people (again) naturally post about weather that affects their backyards. (Your other option is to find some knowledgeable locals and convince them to join this board and share their insights.) As for me, I'm hoping for a mega-phase with an LP consolidation in the northern GOM that progresses right up the SE coast. Hello, foot of snow IMBY! Of course, that is so incredibly unlikely with this current system that there's really no point in discussing that option in the storm thread. It doesn't mean I won't stop hoping, though. (It also doesn't mean I dislike all you posters east of me.) Hope springs eternal... Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

So, we can like posts and give other positive reactions now too. When can we get a "thumbs down" option? [emoji48] There are some posts that are really cluttering up the storm thread lately. I don't like using the ignore feature, but I may have to bust it out again soon. Bah humbug. [emoji16] Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

So, the just-released 20Z HRRR literally has snowfall over my backyard for all 18 frames. I'm not sure I've seen that before. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017120820&fh=5&xpos=0&ypos=0

This is a beautiful picture of what could come in the next 12 hours (?!?!) from the latest RGEM. That's a crazy tight gradient here though:

I can't seem to get under freezing. Sitting at 32.6 over 31. Just need another degree to hold it off from melting whenever the rates let up.

Temperatures at 925mb, lower levels of the atmospheres. We need those to drop below freezing, as well, to have a better chance for the snowfall to make it to the surface.

925s dropping further south...

Matthew East's morning video:

Latest expected snowfall totals from GSP:

Latest update from GSP:

Latest WPC probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snowfall by noon 7:00 AM on Saturday: