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Everything posted by calculus1

  1. Whoa! Hey, now, that's a little strong, man. Don't go that far, if you're wrong. That's like 25+ days in the future to predict. Lot can happen... Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
  2. I'm pretty confident that pack's been in a sweat spot for this entire event and for days leading up to it. Now, if he could only find the sweet spot... Seriously, this must be so painful that you can't help but try to find the humor in it. I was very confident that pack, CR, and the gang would get a decent snow out of this. It seems my confidence was misplaced, and you guys were right all along. I really am sorry that you're missing out on this one, as of yet. I still think it will eventually fill in and you'll each get an inch or more, but this waiting must seriously suck. There's no other way around it.
  3. I don't understand why the Raleigh people are so distressed about this opportunity. (That means you, Cold Rain and packbacker and...) You guys are more depressed and downcast than anyone I've seen in a long time. You have a legitimately good shot at accumulating snow, and you refuse to find solace or hope in anything. You seem to enjoy the doldrums and revel in it. It's become your badge of honor. You will have three inches of snow on the ground Thursday morning and will still refuse to believe that it's there. Come on, guys! Snap out of it! Go find some puppies, rainbows, and unicorns or something.
  4. Mack, for the life of me, I have no idea why you pay attention to TWC's forecast for you. Go to the NWS forecast. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
  5. You sure seem very concerned with whatever is happening on the "other" board, even though you claim to be happy that you are no longer affiliated with it. Just jump on board here and ignore whatever happened over there.
  6. There is no need for people to take regional desires personally, in the storm thread. Of course, Raleigh- and Charlotte-area posters are looking for any hint that the storm may throw precipitation further back inland. This would probably mean that the beaches get rain, but it doesn't mean that Raleigh and Charlotte hate the people who live at the beach. Those who live at the beach have very little desire to see this trend NW much at all: they are content with where we stand. It doesn't mean that they relish seeing Charlotte and Raleigh miss out on snow and that they secretly thrive off dashing their dreams. Each area naturally wants snow more for their backyards than for any other location. It is what is. Accept it. If you want more people to post about impacts in your backyard, then look in the mirror and step to the plate. We have a few posters who are very good at addressing board-wide effects, but most people (again) naturally post about weather that affects their backyards. (Your other option is to find some knowledgeable locals and convince them to join this board and share their insights.) As for me, I'm hoping for a mega-phase with an LP consolidation in the northern GOM that progresses right up the SE coast. Hello, foot of snow IMBY! Of course, that is so incredibly unlikely with this current system that there's really no point in discussing that option in the storm thread. It doesn't mean I won't stop hoping, though. (It also doesn't mean I dislike all you posters east of me.) Hope springs eternal... Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
  7. So, we can like posts and give other positive reactions now too. When can we get a "thumbs down" option? [emoji48] There are some posts that are really cluttering up the storm thread lately. I don't like using the ignore feature, but I may have to bust it out again soon. Bah humbug. [emoji16] Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
  8. So, the just-released 20Z HRRR literally has snowfall over my backyard for all 18 frames. I'm not sure I've seen that before. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017120820&fh=5&xpos=0&ypos=0
  9. This is a beautiful picture of what could come in the next 12 hours (?!?!) from the latest RGEM. That's a crazy tight gradient here though:
  10. I can't seem to get under freezing. Sitting at 32.6 over 31. Just need another degree to hold it off from melting whenever the rates let up.
  11. Temperatures at 925mb, lower levels of the atmospheres. We need those to drop below freezing, as well, to have a better chance for the snowfall to make it to the surface.
  12. Latest WPC probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snowfall by noon 7:00 AM on Saturday:
  13. Apologies. It just seems that it should be obvious when all these maps come from TT or PW that you would just need to Google those names, and there would be the maps. It just seems like people ask for links to the same things over and over. But, you're right. I was a little short about it. You don't have to be quiet, though. Now that you can find these maps for yourself, feel free to post the ones that interest you in the thread.
  14. Dude, everything you want is on Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather or weather.us.
  15. The RGEM is also really cold. KHKY doesn't get above 35 F tomorrow on that run and then falls into the upper 20s in the evening.
  16. It just totally redevelops the precipitation on Saturday for round 2 of snowfall. Wowza!
  17. Not sure what this Ferrier correction is, but this seems about right for the final call from the 00Z 12K NAM:
  18. Same for Hickory: Look for yourself right here: Just zoom in to your location on the map below: (I feel like I've already said this once today...) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
  19. Here's the latest forecast update too. My favorite part is the bolded... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 500 PM EST Thursday: New guidance trickling in continues to trend cooler and wetter, and while the NAM remains a cold/wet outlier, other 18z data shifting that direction lends confidence to a slight uptick in snowfall amounts. Will continue to be a battle between the cold air vs. moisture as is typically the case, but with the moisture expected to now make it farther into the mountains, the prudent course of action was to go ahead and hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for the upslope areas of the SW mountains, including the GA/SC mountains. Because NC`s advisory criterion is 2" in 12h and we have that over the South Mountains in Cleveland/Burke/Rutherford Counties, included those areas, but most locations <1500ft will be hard pressed to see anything more than a trace/dusting at this time (uh, with the current forecast that is - if the trends continue that may be pushed up as well). Concern is that in the prime overlap area of the SC mountains (QPF and temps), current forecast is getting close to warning criteria. Will continue to watch trends through the evening and especially with the overnight forecast. Otherwise, guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the precip potential for tonight and Friday. Deep moisture moves in this evening with decent upper divergence from the right entrance region of the upper jet. Short waves move over as the upper trough deepens to the west. Low level isentropic lift develops as well, but remains relatively weak with abundant moisture. Despite an overall cooling trend in forecast temps and surface wet bulb values, they remain above freezing through the night outside of the mountains, but do fall below freezing across the mountains. Of course, precip chances are lower where temps are colder since those locations are farther away from the better forcing. Therefore, have snow developing in the colder locations with mainly rain elsewhere. Forecast soundings show the freezing level dropping low enough for snow to mix in north of I- 85 with a change over possible across the Northern Foothills. QPF is light but could be enough for around half an inch of snow along and near the NC/GA to NC/SC border mountain locations. Snow would be less across the rest of the mountains. Categorical precip chances continue generally along and south of I- 85 Friday with likely chances north of there across the foothills to along the Blue Ridge. Good chance PoP west of there. Temps and surface wet bulbs remain cold enough for the precip to fall as snow across the mountains with a transition zone across the NC Foothills. Outside of these areas, freezing levels may fall low enough for snow to mix or possibly even briefly change over early in the morning mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor. QPF has increased on some of the guidance runs which increases the potential for advisory level snow across the NE GA and Upstate mountains, along with the Southern Mountains and possibly portions of the NC foothills. After final national guidance is in, we may need to update to post an advisory for those locations. While these accums would develop in grassy and elevated areas, it is still questionable how much accumulates on roads given the recent warmth and sunshine. Locations where the precipitation will be mixed or only a brief change over, no significant accums are expected with any small amounts limited to grassy or elevated areas.
  20. I think quite a few will be happy wherever snow happens to fall, and quite a few will be disappointed wherever it doesn't. It's as simple as that...
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