calculus1

Need to bring the full snowmap into this thread. I see it's up to 30ish inches now, when it's all said and done.

^ That is just unheard of at Hour 114. Wow! Two feet in Hickory?!?! (I know it won't come to fruition like that, but that is an amazing model output with this small of a lead time.) Oh, and how many traces does it take to equate to 23.5 inches?

I'm just so unused to forecasts like this. This is rather mind-blowing:

Yes, lots of them. Most seem to be very good for us, if we are okay with any type of wintry weather. By the way, I really like the change to the "Key Message" format of the NWS GSP AFDs, rather than the short-term, mid-term, and long-term format of prior years.

If Indiana can win the national championship, we can reel this one in!

Roxboro, once again. They are the NC snow capital, outside of the mountains.

I have so many fond memories of those types of storms from the 1980s and 1990s. Bring it on! .

From NWS GSP: “As for the even further out potential system for the weekend, model guidance keeps the high pressure parked over the central part of the country and eventually makes its way into the area. There is much discrepancy and uncertainty if the frontal boundary is able to make anything of the weak moisture return. Friday and Saturday could see a mix of precip but again, its too far out. There is a possibility for a wintry mix as the transition zone and colder air move in. A few of the individual models show a signal for snow, but there is still much uncertainty. Any shift north or south of the potential boundary could be the difference in rain, snow, or nothing at all. And as this location has seen again and again, it`s all a matter of whether or not the cold air can even make it in time. Will continue to monitor as this system is going to change this far out.” So many important caveats in that discussion… .

I think it’s interesting how cold chasing moisture has no shot to work in the foothills, but it can work out for a quick pasting for anywhere from Winston-Salem on eastward. This isn’t even a bittercast; it’s just a statement of fact. If the cold is not present when the moisture arrives, downsloping will accompany the incoming cold air and dry up any residual moisture that be present. Cold chasing moisture also works in the Midwest and plains because the downsloping doesn’t occur there either. .

There’s genuinely light snow falling at my house right now, without any radar returns overhead. It’s tiny flakes with a few large ones thrown in every now and then. This might be enough flakes for me to more satisfactorily call it a trace. [emoji41] Zero accumulation, though. .

There’s a few orphan flakes falling, as I exit church. “I try not to think about, what might have been…” .

43.6 over 40 with mostly cloudy skies here. Not ideal… .

Even NWS GSP mentions “the northwest trend” for tomorrow. I think that gives relevance to it being “a thing”, in general, not just for tomorrow. .

Awesome! Congrats! Only wet ground here. .

I'm on board with your first few sentences. My only issue with this post is the bold portion. I'm so excited about the potential for college football parity. I've had more than my fill of seasons where Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama win it all. I'm sure these are fighting words, but I could go another 10 years or more before I would want to see one of those programs win it all.

Including this winter, I am averaging 1.75 inches of snowfall over the last seven (!) winters. My ten-year mean in my signature does not yet count this winter and is heavily influenced by those years at the beginning of the ten-year period. Fortunately, I have all those traces to make it better...

I thought Sam’s Gap was where I-26 crosses the NC/TN border. .

Most likely graupel .

No, your conversion rate is way off. It’s an infinite number of traces required to make 0.1 inch of accumulated snowfall. Yeah, I suppose I get another T today, too. I had as many flakes as are needed to not quite fill the other measurement for which T is an abbreviation: a tablespoon. (A trace is such a meaningless measurement…) .

Just saw a few stray flakes wander by after getting lost on their journey to our friends to the west. Not sure if I’m supposed to call that a trace or not…

1.56 inches here. Still quite a bit over forecast but nothing compared to what you guys a bit further west got. .

Look at @wncsnow being all positive. Maybe it’s some kind of reverse jinx. [emoji16] If the Panthers win tomorrow, I might believe that uncommon, irrational events — like a snowstorm in the foothills — might actually happen again. .

Last night off the coast of Freeport, Bahamas. Pretty chilly but no sign of snowfall there. It was warm enough during the day to snorkel in the crystal clear water of Celebration Key. .

Go big or go home: I’m wishing for a 1040 high! (Actually, suppression is always a risk…) .

Two days in a row of disc golf with one of my boys! This has been fantastic! Maybe again on Saturday? .