calculus1

I think we have to be careful about saying “Not a single ounce of guidance supports this”. Our NWS GSP Mets are pretty good at their jobs, and they have them for a reason. Just because we don’t see the guidance that supports such a map, doesn’t mean that they don’t see things differently. Granted, this map will continue to be updated, and it could go down or up in the days to come. I tend to agree with you here, and this is what I think the NWS GSP mets may be betting on (for some reason). They must feel the chances for a phase or a more extensive precip shield are higher than what we see from direct model output.

Call me crazy, but I’m still not that worried about the leeside minimum that was just depicted on the ECMWF. I think the climatology of a system taking this track will lead to the system filling in the precipitation to the NW up against the Apps. Of course, I’m not a trained met, so my thoughts are solely based on inference from previous iterations of similar storms, and I could be really wrong by not understanding all the interactions of the atmospheric conditions.

The 12Z GFS actually looks pretty decent for WNC. I think the CMC and ICON depictions are just underdoing the precipitation on the NW side. I don’t think we would see the lee side minimum in this setup. .

Guys, there’s no need to bittercast on the RDU peeps. I want the snow badly here in WNC, too, but I am sure they want it in RDU just as badly. I still think we are in a favorable position, three days out. We’re not likely to see a foot of snow, but a couple of inches or so, seems fairly realistic. And, it could trend more as the field of precipitation blossoms more to the NW like it usually does. .

It’s a true “MILLAH A”!! Imagine David Tennant saying it: https://youtu.be/QsOXFRu_Yf0?si=odHMiD4qVzAUCO3w

@jburns, would you please pin this thread? Thanks!

That’s a good start on the reverse jinx. I like it! .

I remain cautiously optimistic, but that’s also my SOP. Let’s get a big dog next week! The potential is so great.

Somebody please explain to me why we are referencing Barney with the potential upcoming storm. What am I missing?

WWA canceled for us.

Well, the temp actually rose as the clouds rolled in. Back up to 37/35. .

I’m five miles from KHKY airport, but I am way colder. Airport is reporting 44, while I have 36.4/34. Not expecting much in the ZR category here, despite the WWA, but I have never seen such a large discrepancy in my temperature versus that of the airport. Also, I wasn’t projected to hit 36 until 8 AM tomorrow morning in the hour-by-hour from NWS GSP, so I am running way under projected. .

Yeah, I was surprised to get the WWA down here in Hickory. We shall see...

Those of you wanting to go back to the days of surprise snowstorms may be in luck, if the White House cuts funding for NOAA and restricts cooperation with other countries. This would have rather horrible impacts, I fear. What are we doing? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/it-s-a-circus-trump-unleashes-chaos-at-key-us-science-agency/ar-AA1yEkcq .

Declarations of “Winter is over” are such boorish behavior and require very little thought. Why do we allow this behavior in the main thread? Winter continues through March. (Through April and into May sometimes in the mountain communities.) Whether we get snow or not and whether temps are frigid or moderate are unanswerable questions beyond the next week or so and very much location dependent. At least back up your statements with maps or analysis. Otherwise, just refrain from hitting that Reply button, please. .

0.70 for me. An over performer! .

Well, I ended up with about 1.5 inches of absolutely powder in Raleigh this morning. You could literally blow it off the car. It was pretty cool stuff, but didn't amount to too much. Still waiting on the big dog here in Hickory. Like you all have said, it's been a long time since we had an epic winter in this neck of the woods.

Snow near downtown Raleigh tonight. About 0.75 inch at the moment. .

Guys, I’m riding this one out in Raleigh. For once, it’s snowing more here than it is back home. Fun to watch fall, and it is cold outside!

I’m in Raleigh for business today and tomorrow. Moderate snow in downtown Raleigh.

I'm driving to Raleigh tomorrow morning for work and won't return until Wednesday evening. Hoping to see more snow in Raleigh than here. Not often that is true...

Well I totally missed any snow that may have fallen last night. I didn't see any evidence of snow outside, and everything would have stuck, I assume.

Take a drink!

I think one of the most common posts on our site is … “The next 24 hours will be really important in determining … [fill in the blank].” That same statement is made whether we are ten days away from the fever-dream storm, five days away from a possible storm, or 1 day away from an impending storm. This makes me wonder which 24-hour is not really important because that’s the one in which we can all take a breather and not live and die by each model run. Please let me know when we have determined which 24-hour period that is. Until then, I will be waiting anxiously on the next run of the … [fill in the blank] … model.

Finished with a final tally of 2 inches, mostly snow, here in Hickory.