calculus1

That heavy sleet accumulation turns the NW piedmont into a freezer locker. After -8 F Tuesday morning, we get down to 4 F on Wednesday morning. We are colder than most mountain locations, and it’s not due to CAD.

Crazy cold Monday night: -8 F at 7 AM Tuesday morning in Hickory according to the 00Z GFS.

Stays below freezing for the entire event in Hickory, but swings from a “high” of 31 F at 4 AM on Monday morning to 17 F at 7 AM. That’s a crazy temperature swing over that period.

The QPF on the 00Z GFS looks even more than its most recent runs. 2.5 inches in Hickory?! Wow!

The hubris is so off-putting. It’s one thing to say what you believe and why you believe it, backed with solid reasoning. It’s a completely different thing to allow zero chance that you might be fallible, that you might draw a wrong conclusion on occasion, and that other people are crazy to think differently than you. He may be right this time, but pride goes before the fall…

^ I’ll take what’s behind door number two, as well. The Christmas storm like 15 years ago trended from nothing to amazing simply the night before.

Well, if by hammered, you mean a complete sleetbomb, sign me up!

...said everyone on AmericanWx, anytime their backyard is in the snow area.

It's amazing the power of CAD. You are almost always 10-15 degrees colder than me (if not more), and I'm going to be well below freezing all day on Sunday with a continued variety of wintry weather. This is the only time I am in a "better" position than you for wintry weather, but unfortunately, it doesn't come with the fluffy white stuff.

Can somebody please print the entire region sleet map? Thanks!

Looking at the ZR totals posted above on the 12Z GFS, the northern foothills from Burke, Caldwell, and Catawba northeastward seem to hold on to the coldest upper levels the longest. This results in epic IP accumulations and much less ZR. We are in the primo position for CAD, and it may save us on the ZR, in this instance, keeping us IP much longer.

Three(3) for me. And highs of 33 and 34 on Monday and Tuesday under full sun. Whatever falls will have staying power.

That is a typical type of storm from what I remember in the 1980s-1990s as a kid in Lenoir. Either way, those are EPIC sledding conditions. It will stay around for a week, too.

I'm gutted this morning, too, like the rest of you. It makes me wonder why I even bother with this hobby. I have repeatedly told people it cannot snow anymore in Hickory, and I've been right for the past five years. I actually gave a bit of a positive forecast to several friends/family over the past two days, indicating that this time it finally looked likely we would get some snow. I should never have changed my message, it appears. It's amazing how invested I allow myself to get in this. I do like winter weather, all types, so a mega sleet storm would be something pretty cool to see, but being buried in an inch-plus coating of ice from freezing rain doesn't sound nearly as fun. We will see...

Need to bring the full snowmap into this thread. I see it's up to 30ish inches now, when it's all said and done.

^ That is just unheard of at Hour 114. Wow! Two feet in Hickory?!?! (I know it won't come to fruition like that, but that is an amazing model output with this small of a lead time.) Oh, and how many traces does it take to equate to 23.5 inches?

I'm just so unused to forecasts like this. This is rather mind-blowing:

Yes, lots of them. Most seem to be very good for us, if we are okay with any type of wintry weather. By the way, I really like the change to the "Key Message" format of the NWS GSP AFDs, rather than the short-term, mid-term, and long-term format of prior years.

If Indiana can win the national championship, we can reel this one in!

Roxboro, once again. They are the NC snow capital, outside of the mountains.

I have so many fond memories of those types of storms from the 1980s and 1990s. Bring it on! .

From NWS GSP: “As for the even further out potential system for the weekend, model guidance keeps the high pressure parked over the central part of the country and eventually makes its way into the area. There is much discrepancy and uncertainty if the frontal boundary is able to make anything of the weak moisture return. Friday and Saturday could see a mix of precip but again, its too far out. There is a possibility for a wintry mix as the transition zone and colder air move in. A few of the individual models show a signal for snow, but there is still much uncertainty. Any shift north or south of the potential boundary could be the difference in rain, snow, or nothing at all. And as this location has seen again and again, it`s all a matter of whether or not the cold air can even make it in time. Will continue to monitor as this system is going to change this far out.” So many important caveats in that discussion… .

I think it’s interesting how cold chasing moisture has no shot to work in the foothills, but it can work out for a quick pasting for anywhere from Winston-Salem on eastward. This isn’t even a bittercast; it’s just a statement of fact. If the cold is not present when the moisture arrives, downsloping will accompany the incoming cold air and dry up any residual moisture that be present. Cold chasing moisture also works in the Midwest and plains because the downsloping doesn’t occur there either. .

There’s genuinely light snow falling at my house right now, without any radar returns overhead. It’s tiny flakes with a few large ones thrown in every now and then. This might be enough flakes for me to more satisfactorily call it a trace. [emoji41] Zero accumulation, though. .

There’s a few orphan flakes falling, as I exit church. “I try not to think about, what might have been…” .