calculus1

The 3K NAM is anemic for Buncombe County... https://imgur.com/RmF3rsn

I still like both Hickory's and Black Mountain's potentials, with BM looking very strong for 8+ inches. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Yeah, Panovich is more bearish than is the NWS. Also, his geography is wonky: Granite Falls is between Lenoir and Hickory on US 321. He shouldn’t have them in 6-12, if the other two are in the 4-6.

NWS GSP probabilistic forecast hasn’t budged on predicted high totals with their latest update at 9:30:

By the way, we’re heading to Black Mountain. For many reasons: Happy wife, happy life. =) Cousins with whom the kids can play in the snow. (Who am I kidding? I will also be playing in the snow.) Pretty much guaranteed snow for the duration of the event. 8-inch floor, according to the graphic posted above. Monumental snowstorm experience. Let’s do this! Can’t wait!

That’s a foot-plus for all the mountain areas minus the French Broad River Valley and 8-plus inches for all the surrounding foothills. Just amazing totals for these areas.

This is just an amazing graphic to me from NWS GSP. In Hickory, NC, still 48 hours out from the event, they forecast a greater than 90% chance of 5+ inches of snowfall from this upcoming event. I don’t think I’ve ever had a floor that high, since they began producing these probabilistic graphics.

GSP AFD for those trying to figure out their thoughts: I love their candor in this. The part about the 850mb low explains why their numbers are so high NW of I-85. The cat is out of the bag...

Yep, that's what I was mentioning earlier. Fortunately for me, it seems Black Mountain is too far east to feel the severe effects of it. If you ever get a chance to see it, the Visitor Center at Gorges State Park has a great exhibit demonstrating the differences in precipitation for the SW mountain counties. Buncombe County is almost a desert by comparison to Jackson, Transylvania, and Henderson. The Visitor Center's 3-D image of the area shows the high peaks all around Buncombe with Asheville nestled down in the bottom. They also have video demonstrations of how the storms travel up and over the mountains, skipping the Asheville bowl. It's quite informative, if you are into weather, and I assume we are, if we are on this site.

March 93 is the winner for me too, but that was in Lenoir, Caldwell County -- 18+ inches. December 18 has been the biggest for me in Hickory, Catawba County -- 14 inches.

I'll have to rely on local cocorahs reports to get an estimate for my own home, though. There will probably still be a lot left around on Monday afternoon, though, assuming we can make it home then.

That's most helpful with the local topography, @BlueRidgeFolklore. Thanks for explaining that. I think I'm pretty near set on heading up the mountain.

But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet). So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too.

Hmm... That map paints Hickory in a better spot than Asheville... Making my decision tougher...

My wife wants to let her mother know as soon as possible. Probably by tomorrow afternoon we should have it finalized. NW Hickory, approximately one mile from Alexander County line. Between Black Mountain and Swannanoa, near Owen HS.

I would love your guys' perspective on this. Here's my dilemma: There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped. My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain). I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast). However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas. Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer? Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains. As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there". But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard. And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line. What are your thoughts?

And there we have it, folks! Our first declaration of the phrase “Lights out”.

If you guys think I am arguing against using ensembles in forecasting, I am not. I am arguing against displaying a map that gives precision probabilities. If WRAL derives their “probabilities” from ensembles, I still disagree with their language. If they said “14 out of 50 ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton” or even “28% of ensemble members indicated 3 inches or more of snow for Clinton”, I would have no issue with those statements. Those are indisputable facts based off model output. But equating such fractions of ensemble members to probabilities is a misuse of statistics, in my opinion. The probability of a success (getting three inches of snow or more, in this case) is equal to the number of successes divided by the number of possible outcomes (failures + successes). The ensemble members do not represent all the possible outcomes; they only represent approximately 50 of the infinite number of possible outcomes. Thus, we can’t really say there is a 28% probability of something happening based off ensemble members. In fact, I would argue there’s really no way to calculate such a probability, because it’s impossible to account for all the possible outcomes that arise from tweaking just one minuscule atmospheric condition somewhere over the entire globe. It’s the language that I take issue with, not the use of ensembles. If they were to change their title to “Percent of Ensemble Members that Predict 3 Inches of Snow”, I would see that as much more transparent. As it is, I think it’s a misleading graphic.

This is such a crazy graphic. I understand perhaps giving general ranges of 10, 20, 30, etc. percent chances of snowfall of X amount (and even those are questionable). But, how could anyone offer that degree of precision even 12 hours out, much less 4-5 days? For instance, Clinton has a 21% chance of seeing 3 inches of snow? Not 20% and definitely not 22%, but exactly 21%? So, if the atmospheric conditions were exactly the same as they are right now, and we play them out 100 times, then exactly 21 of those times Clinton would receive 3 inches of snow? No way could we possibly know that or perform that experiment. And there’s definitely not empirical evidence that we can fall back on to know this probability to this degree of precision. This is such a horrible use of statistics and probability…

Thanks for posting these meteograms, Buckeye. I just can't fathom all the pretty colors on these charts for Hickory -- there are so many pinks and purples, on both the ECMWF and the GFS ensembles. We aren't supposed to get nice things. I love the bonus bump in snow on the GFS too. As if 12 inches with the first one isn't enough, let's tack on an additional 8 inches a week later. Yessir! My favorite part of the GSP AFD is the bolded here. We are cautioned to manage our expectations. Yeah, we're not too good at doing that on weather boards.

I'm just waiting for someone to say "That's lights out" whenever anyone posts a ZR map. Surprised it hasn't happened yet in the main thread. Why do we need someone to say that?

Looking for that VIP seating?

Go Dawgs. That is all. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Yep, the leeside minimum rears its ugly head once again. Ugh. Can we not get a traditional gulf storm system?

Those are some beautiful shots of the ASU campus, @AirNelson39. I love how the brick of the buildings just pops against the white of the snow. The blues in the sky are really nice too. Great work!