calculus1

Just. Stop. It. Griteater! [emoji16] Six days away... Six days away... Six days away... Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

You are way too overconfident on this. The NWS mets aren't even sure I will see snow in Hickory, NC, and you are guaranteeing sleet and flurries south of Columbia, SC?!?! You are going to be severely disappointed, I do believe. Also, how can you say what is and isn't going to happen six days before we get there? The weather is so fickle. We try our best to model it with math, but are so often wrong. Of course the low could barrel into the banana high, because the banana high might not even be there on Friday/Saturday, as is currently modeled. Who knows what will actually transpire between now and then? The gist of this is to suggest you avoid speaking in such absolutes. There are much greater forces at work than you and I could possibly understand, and they all affect the sensible weather. While humanity has advanced our understanding, we have light years still to go. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

Who knows how all these algorithms actually process the information to produce these "snow" maps? But, IMO, the only part of SC that has any realistic shot at snowfall would be the upstate, like usual. And none of us, NC and VA included, should get too hyped at this point. I love all the trends and the signals, but this is early in the season and still so far out that we can't accurately predict anything with any confidence. Let's keep it all in moderation, guys, and not get too insane with our posts. I so appreciate the sound, reasonable meteorology, but I could do without the crazy, unfounded gut feelings. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

Perfect sledding conditions! Good snowpack with a sheen of crusty ice on top is money! Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

Beautiful glaze on trees here in Hickory this morning. Small icicles on the deck. Went below freezing around 10 PM last night. Rose above freezing around 7 AM this morning. A few remnant sleet pellets preserves in the glaze from earlier last night. Parents live in Lenoir and also report power out. They haven't traveled anywhere, so I can't report on the road conditions there. Power supposed to be back on around noon today. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

It's at hour ~5000! A little far out there to be monitoring specific lows, don't you think? (If I somehow missed the dry humor, I apologise.) Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

34.2/34 I'M BY. 0.87 inch of rain. Coming down heavily. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

RGEM is coming in cold again...

I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county. I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY. Let's do this!

This is probably much more realistic, but it's only out through hour 60. Here's the 00Z 4K NAM:

The latest ZR map from pivotal weather for the 00Z 12K NAM.

Hmm... One inch of freeing rain in Hickory on November 14? Color me skeptical. If, and that's a big if, we were to get a strong enough CAD, I can see perhaps up to a quarter inch of accretion, but freezing rain is a self-limitting process. There's no way we would remain cold enough to allow an inch of ice to accumulate. The ground is still relatively warm too. (Let's not have the soil temperatures argument, please.) Bridges might be a little slick, though. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

Got down to 25.0F IMBY. Brrrrrr... Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

^Is that Hanging Rock State Park, eyewall? Beautiful pics! Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

2.73 inches of rainfall today and still drizzling. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

Fantastic photos, eyewall. I particularly like the second one -- the Viaduct with Hawksbill in the background. Thanks for sharing!

Bottomed out at 47.8 F IMBY this morning. Awesome!

^That's some serious cat5 wind damage there in Mexico Beach. Wow! ^Yes, I think wacky is the right word for that video. Crazy.

I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted. While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level. I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles. It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases. Please be specific, guys.

1.62 inches of rainfall today. Wow! That over-performed.

The NAM and GFS models seem to be tracking Michael on the very western edge of the NHC forecast cone with the heaviest axes of precipitation over the western portions of NC. New NAM is rolling now. (Yes, I know the NAM is not the preferred hurricane model.) It's just an interesting observation.

There are so many things that can make or break an event. 2-m temperature is just one of them. However, monthly average temperature does not necessarily have any effect on whether or not someone gets snow. While highly unlikely, we could finish 0.5 degrees cooler than normal for the entire month by simply being 0.5 degree above normal on 27 days in February and 27.5 degrees below normal on the one other day. I think we'd all just give up at that point, though!

As awesome as all that blue looks, it only corresponds to -0.6 to -0.8 colder than average in North and South Carolina. (I believe those are degrees Celsius rather than Fahrenheit...but still.)

I have to disagree. I'll take my 60s and 70s in any which way I can get them, rain or shine. I actually kind of like the gloomy, overcast, drizzly days from time to time. Additionally, I would quite willingly forgo fall (though I would miss it), if I could dive right in to a cold and snowy winter in October.

I ended up with 4.99 inches of rainfall for Friday through this morning. (Perhaps I'll get one more one hundredth of an inch of rainfall later today to bring it to an even 5 inches.) So, the truly epic rainfall amounts showing up on several runs of both the GFS and ECMWF for my area never materialized. I'm good with that. Unfortunately, those to my south and east seemed to pick up the extra rainfall that I didn't get. What a horrible disaster this is for SE NC and NE SC.