calculus1

Quite what?

There remains lots of potential in the next several weeks. The 06Z GFS has cool to seasonal temperatures in NC for the entirety of its run following Friday. There is also lots of opportunities for precipitations. The trick is matching the two together. I like our chances.

Crazy little storm cell on the extreme NW of this rainfall passed right over my house this morning around 4:30 AM. Five brilliant strikes of lightning, each rolled by rumbles of thunder so loud that the house shook. Then, the rain. 0.51 inch in ten minutes! It seemed tropical in it's intensity. Then it was all over. No more rain for us overnight as the axis of precipitation seems oriented in a training fashion from SW to NE just to our south. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Ice fog?! Fortunately, it's only "patchy". Can you drive through a fog of ice? Does it hurt to walk into it? Is it penetrable? Just. Crazy. Cold. Amazing. Edit: I just checked their forecast on NWS too. It adds the phrase, "Sunny". Can you actually use that phrase when there are less than 5 hours of "daytime" and the sun will be very low on the horizon? The ice fog may actually obscure it. Edit 2: Reading their AFD is just unreal. Check this out: "For the Fairbanks areas, near power plants, some industrial flurries may occur as the atmosphere wrings out the moisture in the power plant plumes." Industrial flurries! I don't think you should make snow cream with that snow.

Unfortunately, GSP radar is down: 000 NOUS62 KGSP 041108 FTMGSP MESSAGE DATE: JAN 04 2020 11:20:03 KGSP RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO PEDESTAL ERRORS. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN. PL EASE USE NEIGHBORING KFFC, KMRX, KFCX, KCAE, AND TCLT RADARS UNTIL SERVICE CAN B E RESTORED.

Beautiful pic,@bess. Unfortunately, it was pretty much a non-event here in Hickory. Not even a glistening when I looked out at the trees this morning. Temp rose overnight like@jburns was observing to my east. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

There is no game at this point. No one is in. There might be a scrimmage next week, but we're not even sure we have enough to field a team. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

That's not good...if we're hoping for some icy weather. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Did not expect it to get cold so quickly. Usually we're watching every fraction of a degree til it finally nears freezing around daybreak. Not the case tonight. Already below freezing. 31.8/24 right now. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Dewpoints are in low to mid 20s at precipitation onset in the latest 00Z NAM. The 3K version prints out total ZR accumulations at about half that of the 12K version, but that is still rather significant when looking at two tenths or greater.

Yeah, here are the ZR totals from Pivotal Weather:

850s are only cold enough for snow for the initial onset of precipitation in NC. However, the lower-level cold air hangs on for a long time. Lots of sleet and freezing rain on this setup.

Well, what have we here? Usual caveats and all, but it's fun to look at.

ASU with 2 wins (count 'em! - UNC & USC) over Power 5 conference schools! What might have been had they not screwed up against GSU last week? Anyway, Go App! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Ray's Weather Fearless Winter Forecast: asheweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf

Perfect! We're already anticipating the NW shift. [emoji16] Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Same here in Hickory. Amazing lightning show all around. Very vivid CTG lightning strikes between 4:30 - 5:00 PM.

Here's hoping the GFS is wrong, as it often is... On the other end of the spectrum, I got to visit the Wind River Range in Wyoming the week before last. The first morning I was there, my Kestrel read 37 F as the low temperature in the morning. Every other morning was in the low 40s. It's amazing what elevation and latitude can do when working together. Loved it! It would be hard to beat western Wyoming for summer weather. The high prairie is above 6000 feet everywhere, there are hardly any people around, and the mountains are spectacular. I got to backpack through several snow fields too. Christmas in July!

This is one time when I wish you had been wrong, grit.

^Those are truly beautiful, eyewall! Thanks so much for sharing. Number 2 is my favorite, and then number 3. I just made that second picture my desktop background. It's beautiful!

Here comes the heat... Ugh.

I'm at Lake Lure this weekend, but watched that radar signature closely. Fortunately, it weakened considerably before it passed over my house. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

We get it. You've got the weather all figured out, and we are stupid for even enjoying a chase that might not pan out. Come on, man. It's a weather board. And, more than that, it's a snow-lovers board. We are going to talk about what the models show and what might happen, and I won't apologize for that. If it doesn't snow, life will go on. If it does snow, I will enjoy it (just like the anticipation), even if it only falls from the sky and never actually accumulates.

The 06Z 12Z NAM was very friendly to upstate SC with a 7-inch lollipop of snowfall. We now have a HWO for up to one-half-inch of snowfall tomorrow morning. Crazy, but lovin' it! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

The 00Z 12K NAM does not disappoint! A nice 6-inch swath of snowfall from Charlotte to Greensboro! Upstate SC gets 1-3 inches. Also, the afternoon discussion from GSP was priceless. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk