calculus1

Radar looking like it’s incoming to Rutherford County. Heads-up @strongwxnc.

That snow map is “Total Snow” and would incorporate everything getting ready to fall in the western half of the state. Thus, it’s really big for the east, and the west is on the fringe. For now.

Just waiting on that NW trend…

Here’s the Panovich mid-morning blog. Really focuses on the Charlotte metro area. Moral of the story: ICE. Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) Tweeted: 11am Winter Storm VLOG 1/15/2022: The focus should be on ice and not snow. https://t.co/Bi23qKAXR6 via @YouTube #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc

Here's GSP's latest expected snowfall map. Numbers going down for NW piedmont but remaining quite strong in mountain areas:

Loving this point-and-click forecast for my in-laws outside Black Mountain (9-15 through Sunday...): That sure beats the one for MBY in North Hickory which has steadily decreased the potential for snow (3-5 through Sunday...):

I like Panovich's in-house futurecast for western areas. Looks like snow for the mountains the entire time and a very long duration event:

Yes! We have a "bollocks"! Now, this storm has officially been christened. Welcome back, @Bevo.

I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles. They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance. Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing.

Yeah, that was pretty horrific overall, even for mountain valleys. Only the high elevations looked good from the 3K NAM. The onset of precipitation was much later than with the other models, too. Ugh.

I love my Davis Vantage Vue. Had one for probably 12 years now. Does great on temperature and rain measurements. Easy to setup and transmits to an in-house receiver with all kinds of cool graphs, measurements, etc. You can also use their software program to keep records and do whatever else you might wish to do with it.

I would rather he bring the cold, if it’s all the same to the rest of you.

The NWS didn't change much with their Expected snowfall graphic from 9:30 this morning:

Oops. I was looking at 06Z 3K NAM. My bad. I erased my prior posts. Thanks for the new post, @wncsnow.

The 3K NAM is anemic for Buncombe County... https://imgur.com/RmF3rsn

I still like both Hickory's and Black Mountain's potentials, with BM looking very strong for 8+ inches. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Yeah, Panovich is more bearish than is the NWS. Also, his geography is wonky: Granite Falls is between Lenoir and Hickory on US 321. He shouldn’t have them in 6-12, if the other two are in the 4-6.

NWS GSP probabilistic forecast hasn’t budged on predicted high totals with their latest update at 9:30:

By the way, we’re heading to Black Mountain. For many reasons: Happy wife, happy life. =) Cousins with whom the kids can play in the snow. (Who am I kidding? I will also be playing in the snow.) Pretty much guaranteed snow for the duration of the event. 8-inch floor, according to the graphic posted above. Monumental snowstorm experience. Let’s do this! Can’t wait!

That’s a foot-plus for all the mountain areas minus the French Broad River Valley and 8-plus inches for all the surrounding foothills. Just amazing totals for these areas.

This is just an amazing graphic to me from NWS GSP. In Hickory, NC, still 48 hours out from the event, they forecast a greater than 90% chance of 5+ inches of snowfall from this upcoming event. I don’t think I’ve ever had a floor that high, since they began producing these probabilistic graphics.

GSP AFD for those trying to figure out their thoughts: I love their candor in this. The part about the 850mb low explains why their numbers are so high NW of I-85. The cat is out of the bag...

Yep, that's what I was mentioning earlier. Fortunately for me, it seems Black Mountain is too far east to feel the severe effects of it. If you ever get a chance to see it, the Visitor Center at Gorges State Park has a great exhibit demonstrating the differences in precipitation for the SW mountain counties. Buncombe County is almost a desert by comparison to Jackson, Transylvania, and Henderson. The Visitor Center's 3-D image of the area shows the high peaks all around Buncombe with Asheville nestled down in the bottom. They also have video demonstrations of how the storms travel up and over the mountains, skipping the Asheville bowl. It's quite informative, if you are into weather, and I assume we are, if we are on this site.

March 93 is the winner for me too, but that was in Lenoir, Caldwell County -- 18+ inches. December 18 has been the biggest for me in Hickory, Catawba County -- 14 inches.

I'll have to rely on local cocorahs reports to get an estimate for my own home, though. There will probably still be a lot left around on Monday afternoon, though, assuming we can make it home then.