calculus1

Exactly 1.50 inches from today's rain. Nice! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Low of 18 IMBY this morning! Wow!

Great work, Grit. I'm glad you decided to go ahead and post another outlook. Get back up and try again! [emoji16] Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

ASU with 2 wins (count 'em! - UNC & USC) over Power 5 conference schools! What might have been had they not screwed up against GSU last week? Anyway, Go App! Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Ray's Weather Fearless Winter Forecast: asheweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf

It was 32.4 F when I left the house this morning. It might have dropped to hit freezing following that, but I won't know until I get home later to check. Chilly!

Finished up with 3.95 inches of rainfall storm total. Very nice! Temp is dropping quickly. In the 40s here in Hickory now.

Ended up with 1.81 inches prior to midnight. I have since recorded another 0.95 inch since then. This is a long duration soaking rainfall. Much needed after recent dry weather. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

1.75 inches of rainfall so far today IMBY. This is most welcome. And, it looks like further heavy showers are approaching my doorstep.

0.42 inch of rainfall today IMBY in Hickory. Lovin' it. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Perfect! We're already anticipating the NW shift. [emoji16] Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Picked up 0.22 inch of rainfall yesterday evening from a storm on a due south heading. That is the only measurable rainfall for the entire month of September IMBY. It is so dry... Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

50.7 F for the low IMBY this morning. Refreshing!

Hurricane watches out for Nova Scotia and TS watches out for PEI and Newfoundland. Wow!

As of the 11 PM Advisory, Dorian is projected to still have TS-force winds off the shores of Greenland on Monday. Crazy. And that's after swiping Nova Scotia as a hurricane on Saturday.

Agreed. So, humid here in Hickory this evening, but it wasn't earlier in the day.

8 AM Cone:

Westward movement at only 1 MPH at 8:00 AM. Those poor people on Grand Bahama. Winds still at Cat 5 strength, but down a bit from the max. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

A little closer to the coast at 9/1/2019 5:00 PM NHC Advisory:

9/1/2019 2:00 PM Intermediate Advisory for posterity's sake. 185 MPH!

This storm is incredible. Just. Wow. The statistics are hard to believe. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

The official NHC track for Dorian didn't change too much at the 2:00 PM Advisory:

Much bigger re-curve illustrated on the cone map at the 8/31/19 11:00 AM Advisory.

And, that's apparently what we can't do: Assume the models are right. In just a few short days, we've transitioned from... A relatively weak storm that would track across Hispaniola, get shredded, and then weakly wobble over southern Florida, to A stronger storm that could potentially take the Andrew track across southern Florida and reemerge in the GOM before turning northward, to An incredibly strong storm that will track across the northern Bahamas before turning sharply north, scraping along the Florida coastline, and eventually coming ashore in North Carolina. Who knows where we will actually end up and what the written history of this storm will recount? Clearly, no one. Or, no one computer model. So, no matter how "advanced" or "evolved" we think we might be as humans, we still cannot accurately predict things that will happen a few days out. This is a reminder that we have far less control over things than we deceive ourselves into thinking we do.

8/31/2019, 8:00 AM Advisory on Dorian: