OceanStWx

There were some LOL NWS snow forecasts based on those Euro runs. Just never a good idea to put 3 ft in your forecast until you see the whites of its eyes.

Is this like the spank bank for weather modeling?

A distant cousin giving you the middle finger of snow.

Let's turn it into a NorLun.

Takes AEMATT to a new level.

ASOS is the final say on QPF, but we always use the observers to check the snow reports, just in case a spider fart caused the sensor to throw in a SNBxx group.

No days off for her and @tunafish

Our CON observer just called for the 18z report and it had been so long since she needed to report snow she forgot if it was 1 pm or 2 pm.

If there is anything you want to hang your weenie hat on, it's that sensitivity analysis doesn't really suggest any sort of locked in clarity until 24 to as much as 54 hours from now. The timing is tough because it splits the viewing window, but overall it all rides on the upper low in the Southwest. Given that it is already over land and is being sampled, the uncertainty is driven by its evolution with time. In general it produces more robust QPF with members that lower the heights throughout the western CONUS.

I can't say whether it has been doing it a lot lately, but there is no known bias that consistently shows up with the GFS. The ECMWF readily admits that it too often holds back upper lows in the Southwest US.

If it were just the ECMWF I would be more apt to toss it, with it's known bias of holding back the southwest shortwaves, but with other guidance doing it too it is tough to ignore.

It's just this but freak riding the chairlift in an endless loop.

A quick spin through DESI is pretty dark. If I squint I could maybe drum up a 10% chance of something notable at BOS, but most members are mood flakes to meh.

The kids watching dad close the blinds in his dark room.

Weird stuff can happen all the time with the ASOSs. Sometimes excess condensation can get stuck on the sensor, other times it can be a bad data card.

Update: Aspirator was cleaned but they discovered a bad part which is on order. It's about to be Hunger Games for spare ASOS parts though with a bunch set to move to the FAA and get outfit with a new package of internal parts.

Sure seems that way. Maybe we've just gotten used to so little snow that it didn't seem out of the ordinary. More than likely somebody hasn't updated the graphic yet.

"Thank you Bryce for expressing your feelings with words and not violent actions."

My kids have reached the age where they are complaining about the lack of sledding.

He's starting to get flashbacks to 2010.

If you look closely at the end of the run you can see Scooter walking off into Cape Cod Bay.

Bigger issue with 1/6 is that we need big changes to score. It's been at least 2 days of a consistent look that is not particularly favorable for New England. While day 5 is still day 5, we are running out of time for a big move.

I'll give Kevin credit, a fully 2 out of 100 ensemble members bring advisory snow to ORH. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Starting to get excited?