Ralph Wiggum

Few stray flakes here in Warminster (Ivyland) earlier.

Didn't plan on it this year. My time has been devoted much more to family. If I have some free time I will put my thoughts together. I can tell you that I dont see any indices that make me feel all warm and fuzzy. I doubt we have a shutout, but honestly if you were to force me to commit to anything, I would say we are in trouble. More red flags than positive signals. We do have the solar minimum working for us and historically we have fared well, so there's that. I dont like the coupling of the trop PV and eventually strat PV over the pole. Even hints it tries to settle in over Alaska by early Dec. That generally doesn't bode well for forcing negative temp anomalies into the region as it locks into AK, Canada, and the Northern tier states and Maine. We'll see, maybe we can get a transition to something good, especially into January. Eta: I have seen blocking in Scandinavia being rather persistent this fall. That is an area that can push into the NAO region as we have seen a couple of times. As usual, the NAO/AO needs to be watched...could be a potential gamechanger.

Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

Didnt note the timestamp. Just getting the rust off for autumn lol.

Cant wait til winter. Such huge differences in the very short term between the GFS and the new GFS-para

Maybe already been discussed but I see we have a new GFS-para now. Fun times.

Both rounds uneventful here yesterday.

Pretty uneventful here. Downpour, a few distant rumbles of thunder, and 2 gusts. No damage, no hail, no naders.

Fully prepared for Wentz to be out an extended period with Covid-19, then another few weeks with an ingrown toenail.

K that's not too bad. In philly we learned the importance of not having a decent bu if Wentz goes down. Foles was big on ball control and not turning it over and subsequently got Philly a SB. But when Wentz went down last year we saw what an elderly immobile over the hill qb was capable of.....nothing. I believe with a healthy Wentz another trip to the SB was likely. As long as Lamjack has someone half decent behind him as an insurance policy, the sky is the limit with this team imho.

Who's Lamar's backup?

I'm out, NAM caved. Winter cancel. Reap me. Ty.

And that seems realistic. Antecedent temps and +anomalous 2m/850s preceding the storm generally dont bode well for the lower elevations. The banana high looks nice but this doesnt look like a SECS for the i95 cities (maybe BOS) at this time.

GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things.

Calling it now.....The Great VD Storm of 2020! (VD=Valentine's Day not to be confused with Venereal Disease)

The Phillies had a guy named Ryan Howard. He took lots of swings. Too many. He led the league in K's and set numerous strikeout records. After a while taking swings gets old and you need a homerun. He led the league in homeruns several years prior but never got the magic back. Is that where we are headed irt snow?

Guess DT is cancelling winter.

Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening.

But but at least it snowed.

The silence from Bob Chill is telling/deafening.

But the pattern concesus no matter what nor how the tellies shift around to change the overall hemispheric look there is almost zero tendency neither this season or last to progress into something that provides meaningful widespread snows. I know parts of this sub had a fluke event 10 days ago but these small windows in between tellie shifts are the only ways we score and even then I would say of the 5 or 6 times the key features transition only 20% of those windows are producing. One of these seasons it will reverse and.the atmosphere will do no wrong. It is just proof again it is so damn hard to get a pattern that produces for more than one of our subs in a particular event.

It's the see-saw ens pattern we've seen since mid Dec. I have no clue what is causing it but we go 2 days of great looks then swing towards a degrading look then back again in 2 days. And at the end of the day the better looks and 'productive' storm chances are still 10 days+ out.

Dont use the GFS op for forecasting LR teleconnections would be the best advice anyone can offer.

This day 10 threat is closely resembling the system for this weekend at roughly the same lead time. Guidance showed ridging moving across S Central Canada with an ULL moving underneath. The ridging kept looking stronger for a bit and I remember posting how the surface low couldnt cut. Same setup day 10 now. Someone will assuredly reply how this setup is different and it is contingent on the 50/50 and the ridging I mentioned and that a minor adjustment puts us all in the game. And while I agree, there is the argument that a minor adjustment the other way can take us right out of the game too. In any event, the storm track and base pattern will be the same here as others recently. We've seen this before where the next one looks better, the one after that looks better. Not trying to deb just making my case why I think the long lead system is going to end up not working as we would like. Recent history and very similar setups say primary moves near the GL and secondary develops just a smidge too late. Timing and placement of key features are just a hair off this season for whatever reason. I hope we trend differently but I cant go against what we've seen already.....maybe this can somehow buck the trend and be "the one". Things look ok now on the ens but again, to have this hold or improve over 10 days this season is a tall order.

Isnt it 99% always day 10+ though?