Ralph Wiggum

In the discussion forum, some have moved past the threat on the 8th, past the @WxUSAF storm on the 11th/12th, and have started targeting specific events after January 15. Feels like a normal winter around here.

@CAPE How did you fare in this one?

33 and rain here. Never wanted to have to post that but there it is. Happy New Year everyone!!

Next week is looking better across guidance wrt HL blocking and subsequent ridging out west later in the period. Pattern evolution had been showing for a while but now it is getting closer in time and not being kicked later which is a great sign. Key features moving forward are the evolution and progression of a negative west based NAO, disturbances forced under the region, and eventually ridging in the EPO and perhaps PNA regions. First two 500mb maps are the Euro and GEPS showing what I am talking about. The Euro actually has a weak 50/50 in addition to a possible storm signal around day 8ish which is reflected at the surface in the bottom map. We should finally begin to have trackable events within the next few days irt medium and longer range. Eta: ensembles continue the pattern progression with a very active and dare I say "classic" look thru the end of their runs. Euro op has another potentially bigger system brewing after day 10. Let's get thru the next few days and kick 2020 outta here. Happy New Year friends!

Nobody knows how the SSWE will work out.....nobody. Dont be fooled into thinking they do. Yes there are some correlations but many more questions that scientists are still working on answers for.

Funny thing is the PAC begins to look half decent on the GEFS then we completely lose the NAO. So we can get some colder air with sheared out waves in a progressive flow east of the Mississippi.

Dusted .2"

Ghosts of 1994 for interior on the GGEM

Finally into Wiggum rule territory. Worked out on Christmas Eve earlier than normal with flakes the next day. If we can hit 60 this Friday let's get more flakes flying within the next 5 days.

12z suite not very encouraging at all. Maybe time to come to the realization things have changed and we can't even score in a decent pattern anymore. More likely to score in a convoluted fluke regime anymore.

Mesos have snow squalls throughout the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Merry Christmas!!

Same here. Probably came off the dead coyote roadkill across the street from my house.

If it were only 10 days later when we hit 60F the Wiggum Rule would apply and we would likely see flakes within 5 days. However, based on 12z suite we should have ample opportunities moving forward

The problem I am seeing isn't the pattern nor the storm evolution/track. There is simply no anomalous cold air on this side of the N Hemisphere anywhere. I mean, you could argue there are transient BN temps sporadically but overall if you look at the N Hemisphere maps the only real cold air is over in Siberia and Mongolia and not expansive whatsoever. Everywhere else is generally AN to much AN especially in our traditional cold air sources to the N. Could be a year where we have the pattern and the storms but we miss out more times than not on snowfall. If we can get some CPF that would help but I'm sure as soon as we get PAC help the ATL side will turn progressive with no blocking.

Blocking developments look excellent. I really like the looks of the ens around Jan 4-7...-NAO relaxes, PNA ridge pumps a little, big energy rolling under the area. Maybe. Anything before then probably a bonus.

He wanted to star gaze I think. I did get some breaks last night and was able to see the grand conjunction. If I hadn't known I would have assumed it was just another planet(s) or star cluster. Pretty cool to have been able to get a glimpse of something though knowing it has been 800 years.

Working on a new movie...."The 12z Suite....A Million and One Ways to Fail with Classic HL Blocking"

greenskeeper () putting in OT today!

Never saw so many ways to fail with an epic block the entire run as the 12z GFS op depicts lol. One of those will work....Im willing to bet on that. Too many vorts moving thru. Probably going to be a period of swift medium range tracking coming up beginning next weekend.

Is he hugging the Euro op? Because the EPS aren't quite as intense looking as the op. Both GFS/Euro op are more blocky and better positioning but a little far out to be using the op as gospel. If the block is too far East that is one possible way the ripe pattern comes and goes without producing (see GFS op and the pinwheel retrograding fish storm).

HR³ puts down a fresh dusting over extreme SE PA.

Ensembles are beginning to highlight the week following Christmas for a favorable pattern for POTENTIAL winter storm evolution. Front comes thru Christmas morning and associated slp heads towards Nova Scotia and begins to pump a ridge near Southern Greenland over the weekend (east-based -NAO?). By the time Monday the 28th rolls around there is a blocking pattern established in the NAO region (east?). This is the period to watch (Dec 28-Jan 3) as disturbances head across the country and run into the block. Potential is high based on these looks for one of the disturbances to connect IF the blocky looks continue in the NAO. AO is neutral to slight negative, PNA ridge is trying to pump, Aleutian low is present, and there is a weak split flow off the West Coast. All are favorable teleconnections. Keep in mind this doesn't always yield a storm but these are the drivers that many look for when discussing Northeast winter storm potential. GEFS is the most aggressive wrt actually honing in on a specific threat

Nice break this week....nothing "major" to track. Maybe a stripe of light snow along the River Sunday but tbh temps are marginal. Maybe some light snow showers Monday PM. T storms Thursday night maybe ending briefly as flakes Christmas morning before temps plummet and flash freeze. Rest up....things look blocky up North and no shortage of disturbances coming across the country as we enter the last week of 2020 and into 2021.

Same to you and your family Paul

18z GFS says maybe some fresh anafront accums morning of the 25th for you. Not a reliable setup but who knows....we've had anafront snows twice already soooo.