Ralph Wiggum

I'm thinking up to a half inch possible in spots. 1" lollis the exception far N and W. Icing concerns in the Poconos and N LV.

What say you? Maybe our big event for season?

Next window showing up centered around January 3. Wave passing thru ejecting out of the -PNA. SER relaxes briefly. GEFS most intrigued and flattest wrt the SER. Allows more of a textbook look with LP coming out of the TV sliding underneath us with HP extension to the North. GEPS has a signal, maybe a bit more amped with the LP tracking more North along the boundary and less of a HP north. EPS also has the wave but tracks North as the SER isn't nearly as flat with less HP to the North. Right after this wave the SER links back up (briefly?) with the NAO ridge as has been the case so far all winter. So the window is there, but it is a small window and is going to be dependent on how squashed the SER gets.

EPS mean is much faster with the poleward shift of the stagnant PAC ridge. By 240 hrs it has already moved well into the EPO region. GEPS wants to keep things steady and status quo wrt recent maritime longwave pattern. Usually a sign a change is indeed coming when the ens start disagreeing more in the LR.

Merry Christmas !

Nothing expert about it. Just trying to put pieces of this wx puzzle together.

This setup coming in 7-14+ days reminds me of 2010 and 2016. Still thinking at some point the chances for a larger storm are increased this JFM. We see what the base state has been with high lat atl blocking and a near-stationary block in the N PAC. STJ has had some waves riding thru so I wouldn't rule out this links up with the PJ once or twice in our favor.

Merry Christmas and Happy Festivus!!

The mid lat ridges both in the PAC and Atl have been linking up with the high lat ridging for months now it seems. This is why im hoping the strat warming pulses continue to put pressure on the SPV. I know that effects the high lat blocking hemispherically so just wondering if that would do 'something' wrt how the mid lat ridging is propogating/reacting. Like you said though, the whole thing could backfire and the pattern go apesh!t hostile but tbh I will roll the dice with that as an option. This current base state needs a shakedown and isnt doing squat for us attm. Im also unsure if this current base state and pattern continue into mid/late January that peak climo will be able to help us or not.....but that's a different topic for a another day.

That damn anticyclone over the Aleutians is like the storm on Jupiter...it literally hasn't budged and isn't forecast to budge any time soon. Maybe if we r lucky we can get the ridging to extend poleward in the EPO but thats a crapshoot at this point. Posted elsewhere and I realize the SSWEs are generally hi lat based wrt shifting tellies, but maybe the forecast warming up at 10mb can at least shuffle things around. I would roll the dice with it even given the possibility the PAC degrades even worse but just to get the chance to shuffle it around is worth a try at this point.

For those playing along at home, the new MJO plots (which I dont particularly care for as a forecasting tool) stall in 7 and some members even retrograde back into 6. Only thing I can say based on this is that we are in for the same status quo ho-hum pattern for the next several weeks, likely taking us into the 2nd week of January before we see any meaningful changes. Where we go from there, positive or negative, who knows? But base state out in the PAC specifically is locked in and the MJO is also stalled (or locked in) with no catalyst on the horizon to shuffle the deck. Probably going to take something on a hemispheric scale to change things around. There are possibilities of a SPV split in the next 10 days as a warming event intensifies, so with lag factored in, maybe we can see some changes at higher lat in the PAC as a starting ground after Jan 3ish. Not sure what this will do for the -PNA however or if it will do anything favorable at higher lat in the PAC.

What time are the feats of strength?

Mesos aren't enthused

Yep, all or nothing the past decade I feel like.

Based on the depth of that -PNA and trof out west, i would expect a more stout SER tbh

Agree 1000%

Noted in my outlook that we in fact do likely see one larger storm this year. Chances higher for a hefty overunning event as the pattern folds in Feb. I also think the chances for icing are increasing significantly based on the stagnant 50/50, -PNA, and SER.

Another pattern headfake alert. Already seeing signs of the better ens looks in early Jan becoming flawed. Colder/seasonable? Sure. Sustainable pattern change? Nope. Rolling over on itself and reloading. The Jan thaw this year will be beach wx with all these mid and full lat ridges in the East flexing from the SER. Beat it down for a day or two then flex on roids.

Cape storms never disappoint. Never.

But the same period upcoming that is growing warmer on ops was also progged as a dramatically cooler regime 14 days prior on the ens. So who's to say we aren't getting head faked again for the 1st week of January?

Ha, no stj at 0z to all stj at 12z. I truly loathe LR op solutions at times....just comical the changes run to run.

Easy visually to see where the mean trof is anchored.

I posted regarding this in another subforum and was discussing with one of their posters for a few days now. Yep, this is the change the atmosphere needs imho. May hurt us, may help us.....but can't be any more boring than right now. The warming at 10mb across ens is encouraging.

We do. Did I typo in that post? Eta: whoops yes I did. Should read positive not negative. Ty for pointing that out.

One aspect I alluded to yesterday was the waves of warming in the strat. Not sure I would categorize it as a SSWE tho. However, the ens are getting more aggressive with the SPV bullying. PSU and I discussed implications of the SPV and concluded that these warming events are sometimes catalysts in reshuffling the deck. So maybe this disruption to the spv anchor will end up being what the doctor ordered wrt to pna tho the spv is generally more high lat related.