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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Looks like a tick west on the 18z Euro Ensembles.
  2. CT Rain
    For sure. At least for my backyard seems like we're going to have a really hard time preventing the torch as the high retreats and wind cranks out of the E/SE. Farther north up toward the Pike I think there's definitely more room.
  3. CT Rain
    Euro is really warm in the boundary layer. 2m temps at BDL up to +4c at 12z Monday.
  4. CT Rain
    I'm not sure it makes a huge difference south of the Pike... but farther north if you do have a mesolow or some weakness offshore you might be able to hold some boundary layer chill a bit longer.
  5. CT Rain
    It's funny how everyone hated the offshore mesolows on the last storm... but is all about them this storm.
  6. CT Rain
  7. CT Rain
    The 3-hour increments with rapid boundary layer warming will make the model output for ptype fairly dubious. But yeah, a decent thump of snow before rain.
  8. CT Rain
    Barring a wholesale shift offshore... the retreating high and prolonged easterly flow is going to make it challenging to get >6" of snow south of the Pike. Even if you did track this thing over HVN-BOS for many it's heavy snow to heavy rain. I think a reasonable "best case scenario" for the I-84 corridor is like 3-6 or 4-8" followed by heavy rain. If the entire thing gets shunted offshore then we do better but that seems unlikely right now.
  9. CT Rain
    GFS is a horror show for the weenies.
  10. CT Rain
  11. CT Rain
    Yeah... looks like heavy snow to heavy rain right now. If the antecedent airmass sucked it would be brief snow to rain.
  12. CT Rain
    Yeah the antecedent airmass is pretty tasty.
  13. CT Rain
    It's a really cold antecedent airmass so even the GFS track is probably a decent burst of +SN before we pour.
  14. CT Rain
    Kevin is always excited for a damaging southeaster though.
  15. CT Rain
    We cut.
  16. CT Rain
    Seems like this weekend is a bit of a stretch but man what a tasty pattern D10-D15.
  17. CT Rain
    7.5 in West Hartford melted to 0.50"
  18. CT Rain
    FWIW the HREF members are a bit juicier across SNE at 00z than they were at 12z.
  19. CT Rain
    Oh sorry, I was talking CT. Yeah... still time to get cranking in E Mass especially.
  20. CT Rain
    Seems like the convection is going to be an issue. A bit disappointing to see the RAP/HRRR and the NAM trends but still looks good for 3-6 in many spots in CT.
  21. CT Rain
    I was sort of hyping this afternoon. Definitely hedged high verbally after looking at those model soundings off the GFS/NAM. Hopefully the HRRR is off the mark.
  22. CT Rain
    He's not bad.
  23. CT Rain
    I know. Not really comfortable ditching my 3-6 in Hartford... but a crush/fluff job under that mid level band wouldn't shock me.
  24. CT Rain
    Yes... that has me worried for the Hartford area. Could definitely see a 10" jack in that mid level banding given the MAUL and good snow growth.
  25. CT Rain
    Updated numbers
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