yoda

18z GFS still gets some of 93L moisture into the region but it disappates

Loudoun cell looks interesting, looks like an outflow boundary attached to it Just got warned

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Northern and Central Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 950 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over southern Lower Michigan will track southeastward across the watch area tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, with a risk of significant wind damage at times. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Fort Wayne IN to 25 miles north of Franklin PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 655...WW 656... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Hart

but now its back to a regular warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 MIC093-250215- /O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230825T0215Z/ Livingston MI- 945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY... At 945 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Fowlerville, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Howell and Oak Grove around 955 PM EDT. Brighton around 1010 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Parkers Corners.

Confirmed large and dangerous tornado per radar

They already did

Now this is pretty cool

12z NAM and NAM NEST didn't look too bad for tonight

So anything interesting for tonight or nah?

This was 12 years ago? Dang... time flies

There is a MRGL risk on Friday from SPC

Emily done... Gert will be done by this evening

Well we have a 36 hour TD... so yay?

Time sensitive

WTPZ44 KNHC 182046 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Hilary remains a large and powerful major hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the northern portion of Hilary and found a higher minimum pressure than expected of 948 mb, 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt, and peak SFMR surface winds of 93 kt. However, the aircraft did not sample the southern half of the circulation, which currently has some of the deepest convection. Blending the available aircraft data and latest satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. Hilary continues to slowly bend to the right, and the initial motion is northwestward or 315/10 kt. A general north-northwest to north motion with a steady increase in forward speed is expected tonight and through the weekend as the system is steered by pronounced steering flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. The models have trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has followed suit. Based on the latest forecast, the core of Hilary is expected to be very near the central portion of Baja California Saturday night and move inland over southern California by Sunday night. It should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well ahead of the center. Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected through tonight, but Hilary is expected to begin weakening on Saturday as it moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, partially due to the lower initial intensity, and a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain will increase ahead of the center on Saturday. In the Southwestern United States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with the potential for dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula Saturday night and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible by late Sunday in portions of southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 ...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 112.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning on the west coast of Baja California northward to Cabo San Quintin and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning north of Loreto on the east coast of Baja California and north of Guaymas in mainland Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward from the Orange/Los Angeles County Line to Point Mugu. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas * Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island

can definitely hear the distant thuinder... bright flashes off to my SE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1105 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Charles County in southern Maryland... Southeastern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Central King George County in central Virginia... East central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1130 PM EDT. * At 1105 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairview Beach, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... King George, Dahlgren, Fairview Beach, Potomac Creek, Nanjemoy Creek, Popes Creek, Aquia Creek, Port Tobacco River, Passapatanzy, Stones Corner, Weedonville, Ironsides, Bel Alton, Pisgah, White Oak, Sealston, Faulkner, Berthaville, Dogue, and Marbury.

Maybe a few rumbles of thunder tonight?

Can't say I've ever seen a NHC 5 day map into W Nevada

Don't see the word frost very often in an AFD in August - from this morning AFD from LWX: By Friday the front will have pushed through, which will usher in cooler, but most noticeably, drier air into the region. Highs on Friday will reach the mid 80s, but dew points will be well down into the low to mid 50s. With high pressure building overhead Friday night and such a dry air mass in place, wouldn`t be shocked to see some of our high elevation valleys down into the low to mid 40s, with even the Shenandoah Valley perhaps dipping into the low 50s. No frost concerns of course at this point, but could be a brisk night for sure.

1630z SPC OTLK still has the 5 percent tor probs with no change