yoda

That's the website I couldn't think of but knew was somewhere in my weather bookmarks... thanks

Thanks for the link... for some reason I only thought KIAD did that

I don't know if KDCA or KBWI have that... but I know KIAD does

And there's still a few more hours of heating to go... but the clouds may deny much more

Ah, the season of the Capitals losing in the playoffs again have returned

From today's AFD re September rainfall records:

Everybody should be breaking records easily tomorrow... possibly even the all time record... .CLIMATE... Significant record highs are possible on Wednesday. Here are the records for October 2nd and for the entire month. Site Oct 2 record All-time October record DCA 89 in 1986 96 on 10/5/1941 BWI 89 in 1986 97 on 10/5/1941 IAD 89 in 1986 94 on 10/9/2007

Yay for tomorrow... the CF can't come soon enough

If you want to go out there on the 06z GFS... suggestion is there for highs around 60 from October 12th and on to the end of the run. This is at or around DCA... so highs are in the 50s and even some upper 40s north and west of DCA

12z GFS doesn't have much in the MDR developing after Lorenzo recurves way out to sea in the middle of the ATL... there looks to be a system way out that forms and meanders in the Yucatan Peninsula as we get towards the end of the first week of October... and then looks like some homebrew at the very end of the run

Place holder for now BWI: 10/28 DCA: 11/11 IAD: 10/28 RIC: 11/06 Tiebreaker: 12.26"

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Triple phase LMAO

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea

And landfall too? Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA... Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

NHC only has a yellow tag on it... 30% before "landfall" late tonight... Maybe it will be reviewed after the season but I think its too late This was the NHC 8am disco on it:

I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close

Is turtlehurricane okay? Haven't seen him since Dorian roared by

Nope... it will be close, but stay just offshore

And limelight

It's like a family reunion in here lol

This is correct