yoda

Yup. 45% hatched wind is mod on wind chart while 15% hatched is mod on tor chart

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight.

1630z SPC OTLK ramped up TOR probs significantly in W IL and extreme SE IA... 5% at 1300 to 10% hatched on 1630z... hatched wind added to 30% on 1630z OTLK as well

Yeah... sad. Kamala always seemed to be like 5 minutes faster than SPC putting stuff up

For anyone who registered for the online SKYWARN Class for tomorrow, Tuesday, August 13th -- it has been rescheduled to Wednesday, August 14th... thanks to @Kmlwx for the heads up

Which is Wednesday, August 14th

And we have seen it work before in our area

Fun read

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0574.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Kansas South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 940 PM until 500 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A developing bow echo over northwest Kansas will move rapidly eastward overnight, posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts across the watch area. Large hail and a tornado or two are also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Hill City KS to 15 miles south southeast of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

This continues (the type of soundings above) at 21z TUES/00z WED at both KMRB and KHGR, 00z WED and 03z WED at KEZF, and 00z WED at KDCA

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Are you down in Northern Florida? Used to go down to Sawgrass and Ponte Vedra Beach for summer vacation with family when I was younger

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe LWX seems gung ho for Tuesday severe in their AFD:

SLGT risk for Tuesday... could be a few supercells reading the day 3 SPC OTLK

Another 90 degree day at DCA... 90/62 at 2pm

You may... the two other usual ones @BlizzardNole and @C.A.P.E. each got over 1.6 inches of rain, so no complaints from them for awhile allowed

No more complaining for you lol

hope you get something later

Watching just west of Burke @mattie g

Watching that stuff in Fauquier County moving NE and what looks to be a few developing storms in Culpepper

Looks like home is getting hit again

Check the radar now to your west

Nice hail core E of Woodstock... 2.25" on radarscope... probably will scrape southern part of Front Royal