yoda

Severe wording in all of the zones for this afternoon and evening

LWX AFD from last evening mentioned Monday and talked it up some

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 500 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0345 PM FLASH FLOOD BALTIMORE 39.30N 76.61W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE CITY MD 911 CALL CENTER DOZENS OF STREETS CLOSED IN THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF BALTIMORE CITY PER DPW. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104287

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 453 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0324 PM FLASH FLOOD BALTIMORE 39.30N 76.61W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE CITY MD 911 CALL CENTER WATER HIGHER THAN THE FENCES IN THE AREA OF HILLEN ROAD AND 35TH STREET. MULTIPLE NEARBY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 459 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0451 PM FLOOD 2 E WESTMINSTER 39.58N 76.97W 06/10/2021 CARROLL MD EMERGENCY MNGR WATER RESCUE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLD MANCHESTER ROAD AND LUCABAUGH MILL ROAD. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104286 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 443 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0435 PM FLOOD 6 N WESTMINSTER 39.67N 77.01W 06/10/2021 CARROLL MD EMERGENCY MNGR DEEP RUN ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-Central/Northeast Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms including some supercells are expected to develop initially across east-central Montana and quickly move north-northeastward through evening. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards, although a tornado could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles east northeast of Havre MT to 55 miles west southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

Wow... 80/80 probs on hail. 50/30 tor probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms including supercells will likely rapid develop through mid/late afternoon from east-central/northeast Montana into western South Dakota. Of greatest concern as far as intense supercells and a tornado risk will be those storms occurring near a west-east warm front across the region, where low-level moisture/shear will be maximized. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Wolf Point MT to 70 miles east southeast of Williston ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

@high risk @WxUSAF hmmm... from afternoon AFD from LWX:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0354 PM FLOOD PARKVILLE 39.38N 76.55W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE MD 911 CALL CENTER CAR STRANDED IN WATER NEAR INTERSECTION OF HARRIS AVE AND RADER AVE. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104280 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 409 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0336 PM FLOOD 1 WSW CARNEY 39.40N 76.54W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE MD BROADCAST MEDIA CARS STRANDED IN WATER IN THE PARKING LOT OF HARFORD HILLS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104281

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Baltimore County in northern Maryland... The Baltimore City in northern Maryland... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. Local emergency management officials report numerous road closures due to high water and stream gauges on Beaverdam Run and Minebank Run indicate rapidly rising waters. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Doppler radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that may experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... Cockeysville... Towson... Parkville... Carney... Perry Hall... Rossville... Mays Chapel... Timonium... White Marsh... Hampton... Kingsville... Lutherville-Timonium... Lutherville... Loch Raven... Long Green... Glen Arm... Loch Raven Village... Hydes... Eudowood...

Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...far northeast MT...western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101956Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected between 20-21 UTC along the dryline over eastern MN near the ND border. Explosive growth into significant-severe producing supercells is forecast late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling band of agitated cumulus along the dryline over far eastern MT near Sydney. Temperatures immediately east of the dryline have warmed into the lower 80s with a deepening boundary layer featuring low to mid 60s deg F dewpoints. The 18 UTC Glasgow, MT raob showed a very steep 700-500 mb lapse rate (8.6 deg C/km). Modifying the raob for 19 UTC surface conditions east of the dryline near the ND/MT border (i.e., Sydney, MT) yielded 3300 J/kg MLCAPE with very little convective inhibition remaining. As the cap erodes, expecting explosive updraft growth quickly evolving into a few discrete supercells. Giant hail (3+ inches in diameter) is possible with the stronger storms as the organize and move northeast into a less deeply mixed and more moisture rich environment near the warm front. Supercell tornadoes will be possible in vicinity of the warm front, in addition to the hail/severe gust hazard. Other isolated storms are forecast to eventually develop southward along the dryline into parts of southwest ND and northwest SD. Large to giant hail will be the primary hazard with these storms before additional thunderstorm development into a severe squall line evolves later this evening. ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

I hear nothing here in Fairfax

First FW of the day BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 303 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 MDC013-110115- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0026.210610T1903Z-210611T0115Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Carroll MD- 303 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... Northeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland... * Until 915 PM EDT Thursday. * At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Westminster... Manchester... Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.

Well the one near Thurmont in Frederick County just got warned ETA -- and so did the one up in Baltimore County

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and tonight across much of the northern and central Plains, especially across eastern Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, wind gusts above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern/central Plains including Dakotas/Nebraska/E Montana... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region late this afternoon and tonight and have upgraded parts of the western Dakotas to a categorical Moderate Risk, with much of this regional risk expected to persist well through the late-night hours. 12Z upper-air analysis/soundings essentially sampled near-record moisture content by early/mid-June standards across the High Plains in terms of mean mixing ratios/850mb dewpoints, including locations such as Dodge City/North Platte/Rapid City/Bismarck/Glasgow Montana, although mid-level/700 mb temperatures were notably warm (near-record values) at these locations as well. Thunderstorms should develop initially this afternoon into early evening near the surface low and adjoining frontal segments over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Supercells capable of all hazards (tornado, large to giant hail, severe wind gusts) are expected in the first few hours of the convective cycle. This should be followed by a transition to one or more organized convective complexes with a dominant destructive-wind hazard, with isolated severe hail and possibly some tornado threat. During and after that transition, very damaging gusts to hurricane force may be observed through the evening and possibly the early overnight hours. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overlie a corridor of moist/theta-e advection and diurnal heating south of the warm front and east of the low/cold front. This will contribute to MLCAPE strengthening into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (locally higher), amidst intensifying deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 35-50 kt). Low-level shear should be maximized along the warm front and east of the surface low across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Farther south across portions of South Dakota/Nebraska and perhaps northeast Colorado, high-based supercells should form late this afternoon/early evening near the dryline/lee trough, offering significant hail and severe gusts. However, this activity may evolve upscale more quickly to a QLCS configuration with a dominant wind threat. Deep, well-mixed sub-cloud layers will support maintenance of both severe hail and gusts to the surface during earlier, relatively discrete stages, but also, foster quick cold-pool aggregations and rapid expansion. Forced ascent of a foregoing boundary layer containing 60s to near 70 F surface dew points, with MLCAPE commonly remaining above 2000 J/kg even well after sunset, will help to drive the severe-wind threat southeastward over much of Nebraska tonight.

Wow... 1630 SPC went all in... 45 hatched wind and hail with 10% tor in NW ND/extreme NE MT Though that's the smallest 45% hail contour region I've seen in a while lol

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0321 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1219 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 101616Z - 102215Z SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across the northern Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be common, but locally higher rates can not be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery through 1545Z showed an expanding cumulus field within an otherwise mostly clear environment across the Delmarva Peninsula into MD and southeastern PA. A few showers and thunderstorms have also popped up on regional radar imagery over northern Delaware Bay and along the Catocin Mountains of northern MD into the Appalachian chain of southern PA. PWATs within the pre-convective environment are 1.7 to 2.0 inches and 850-200 mb mean-layer flow is very weak across the entire region at less than 10 kt, which will support slow storm motions. Little CIN on the 12Z soundings from WAL and IAD suggest storm coverage will continue to increase with daytime heating with the front and local terrain acting as sources for lift. In addition, locally stronger easterly flow just behind the cold front may help to support near-stationary convection along the terrain of northern VA into northwestern MD and southern PA. Given the lack of speed shear with height, storms should not be organized in nature or long-lasting, but they should be rather efficient with rainfall production given high wet bulb zero heights of roughly 13 kft. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are very likely with localized rainfall rates up to 3 in/hr possible. In fact, rainfall rates from the HRRR support 1-2 inches of rain in 15 to 30 minutes which seems reasonable given the moist environment. Portions of the Delmarva into southern MD and southeastern PA received heavy rainfall yesterday and will be more susceptible to localized flash flooding today. While flash flooding is not expected to be widespread across the entire region, scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall with several areas at risk for flash flooding, including the urban I-95 corridor from south of D.C. into northern DE with 2-4 inches expected through 22Z. Otto ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0321&yr=2021

LWX putting more counties in the FFW

Don't know if this had been posted yet... but Bernstein is retiring from WUSA9 weather... his last day was yesterday

No sprinkler?

Looks like June 6, 2020 (the 0100z SPC OTLK technically) was last time MOD risk was issued in the Dakotas/Montana... June 18, 2018 looks like the one before that No MOD risk issued on the 1300 SPC OTLK... but disco mentions potential wind driven one could be issued later

Sunny morning sky outside... better lead to some good storms this afternoon

Is this before the change to rain or before the 850 0C isotherm goes blasting by?

Pretty sure this is a made up in his mind theory

You get a FFW! Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ027-028-030-031- 052>054-501-505-506-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-101500- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0002.210610T1600Z-210611T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Waldorf, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Purcellville, Bayard, Sterling, Columbia, Ashburn, Mount Jackson, Front Royal, Leesburg, Russelldale, Grantsville, Lexington Park, Frostburg, Lusby, Montclair, Alexandria, Paw Paw, Washington, Warrenton, Franconia, Ridgeville, Mount Storm, Charles Town, Winchester, Damascus, Petersburg, Chantilly, Ballenger Creek, Huntingtown, College Park, Chesapeake Beach, Greenbelt, McLean, St. Charles, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Mountain Lake Park, Eldersburg, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Strasburg, Elk Garden, Odenton, Woodstock, Bethesda, Prince Frederick, Centreville, Camp Springs, California, Germantown, Rockville, Hagerstown, North Beach, Fort Ashby, Falls Church, Severn, Ellicott City, Annandale, Cockeysville, Gaithersburg, Headsville, Shepherdstown, Cumberland, Herndon, Annapolis, Keyser, Martinsburg, Westminster, Antioch, Dunkirk, Moorefield, Reisterstown, New Market, Severna Park, Berryville, Frederick, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Manassas, Reston, Baltimore, New Creek, Woodbridge, Romney, Lisbon, and Oakland 253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC...Maryland...Virginia and West Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Eastern Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD, Garrett, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys and Washington. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Northern Fauquier, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant and Western Mineral. * From Noon EDT today through this evening * A cold front will drop southward into the area today. This front will become the focus for slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Because of the slow motion and ample moisture in the atmosphere, storms may drop 2 to 4 inches of rain a short period of time, resulting in flash flooding. * Heavy rainfall in a short amount of time can result in rapid rises of water in streams, creeks, and urban areas.