yoda

Afternoon LWX AFD says Monday maybe...

I do like the name of our newest member to the forum

This guy?

DCA 102 IAD 100 BWI 102 RIC 104

When there is a thunderstorm ongoing with heavy pouring rain, he/she will show up

Mappy was testing his maps... guess he failed lol

Today's SPC morning outlook disco

surprise Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 NCC061-022145- /O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210602T2145Z/ Duplin NC- 531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN COUNTY... At 528 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Rose Hill, or 7 miles northeast of Wallace, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. At 515 PM, damage was reported near Teachey. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Beulaville, Sarecta and Greenevers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Thought I read somewhere that technically the Fujita scale went from 0-12 like the Beaufort scale?

EF6 here we come

Afternoon AFD has no mention of anything for Friday at all... but interesting tidbit about tonight into early tomorrow in there... @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

Could be changed in tonight's new Day 2

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary threat. Other strong to severe storms with locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as well as eastern Oregon. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will push through the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of the boundary, moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. In the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will impact the region by late afternoon into the evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre-frontal confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. There remain uncertainties as to where the greatest boundary layer destabilization will occur given cloud cover within the warm conveyor belt as well as warm advection precipitation in North Carolina/southern Virginia. Forecast soundings indicate a greater potential for cloud breaks from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. This area will also see a modest increase in 850 mb flow by afternoon/evening which will increase the threat for damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Father north into eastern New York/Vermont, there is less certainty on the degree of destabilization, but relatively strong mid-level forcing should promote scattered storms with some attendant threat for wind damage. Mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, but where greater buoyancy develops isolated large hail will be possible.

Yeah that sucks for the 76ers... but I think they win tonight. Probably be bounced next round anyway... Wizards have lost Bertans for the postseason as well. I expect a 76ers win by 10+ tonight

2/5/15 on 1730 SPC update... 5% hail is new. Also moved the SLGT risk line west of the i81 corridor

Maybe we get lucky and we get a two day event before we go dry? Please?

mmmmm... NW flow events

Hopefully to a wintry one

LWX morning AFD sounds good for severe tomorrow afternoon... would be cool to see a supercell structure again

2/0/15 on new Day 2 from SPC

Day 3 SLGT (Thursday) from SPC for the region... even mentions a chance for a few tornadoes Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary threat. ...Middle Atlantic region... A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds will spread above the moistening pre-frontal warm sector Thursday in association with an approaching positive-tilt upper trough. While areas of clouds and a few showers may develop early in the period along the evolving warm conveyor belt, pockets of diabatic heating will contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms developing along and ahead of an approaching cold front will likely undergo a gradual intensification during the day with 35 to 40 kt effective bulk shear supporting a few organized structures. Damaging wind appears to be the primary threat, but low-level hodographs might become sufficient for a couple of tornadoes. Activity should weaken toward mid evening.

As long as there are good storms, I'm good with it. If its like 95/70 and sunny... then no

16/9/5

Thursday maybe? From this morning's AFD:

Well that new Day 1 was a bit surprising IMO... Slight risk for all... 2/15/15 Interesting disco too mentioning hail risk as well