yoda

5am NHC track has Ida near MRB area at 1am THU

140mph now and 946mb Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 89.1W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

5 am on Ida HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 The tropical wave and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past several days has finally acquired a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The last few visible satellite images yesterday evening indicated a tight swirl in the low-cloud field and a 27/2325Z partial ASCAT-A pass showed the circulation was also well-defined, albeit with only 23-kt surface winds. Since the time of that scatterometer pass, however, a significant increase in deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has developed very near and to the northeast of he center, with a few cells also now having developed just to the southwest of the center. Based on the structure noted in the ASCAT data and the pronounced increase in the amount and organization of the convection, the advisory intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The system has slowed down markedly during the past several hours, likely due to the sharp increase in the associated convection. A turn toward the north is forecast to begin later this afternoon as the system moves into a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge pattern, with a general northward motion continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is surprisingly in good agreement on this track scenario, with only minor forward speed differences noted between the models. The 18-20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear affecting the depression is expected to abate somewhat during the next 12-24 hours, which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur while the system moves over 27.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures. By 48 hours, however, the shear is forecast to increase again in excess of 25 kt, which should act to weaken the cyclone, possibly even causing it to degenerate into a remnant low. For now, however, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a tropical depression at days 3 and 4 in the event the cyclone regenerates at day 5 when the shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt, which may allow for convection to redevelop. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 14.0N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 49.9W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 49.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue this morning. By this afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Well that sucks...

Intriguing track forecast for Nora at Day 5 location

Looks really good @Mrs.J

MRGL risk up today for some damaging wind gusts... kinda going to be a threat each day for a little while

Was the 3km NAM posted yet?

Please no... that would make us have to deal with more turtlehurricane posts

LSR of 0.75" hail 1 SW Rosslyn

LWX AFD from this afternoon already has a lot of talk about Ida The later half of the long term be heavy dependent on the interaction between a tropical system currently located over the western Caribbean and a cold front dropping through our region from the Northwest. A tropical depression over the western Caribbean is forecast to make landfall somewhere in central Gulf States as a Cat 1/2 Hurricane on Sunday. The main question for this system will be what direction it will take once it moves inland. A cold front is forecast to drop down through our region late Monday through Tuesday and progress southward on Tuesday driven by a high pressure to the north. The tropical system may interact with the frontal boundary to enhance rainfall. I feel the biggest concern may be over the southern states especially Tennessee which received a lot of rain recently. As the tropical system moves northeastward, the axis of heaviest rain will likely shift toward our region late Tuesday through Thursday period. Depending on the track the center of the low takes, there could be multiple threats for our region. Flooding could be a concern especially if the models trend eastward with the trop low and if we continue to receive convection over the next 4 to 5 days. If the low stays west of our region, the shear on the east side of the low could enhance the SVR and tor threat. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the long term as the tropical system remains disorganized and off-shore. The stretch of 90 degree weather may break on Tuesday as the front pushes through our region.

Outflow boundaries being pushed out of the DC storm

Bit of a hail core with it

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 505 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the system south of Jamaica. 1. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

LWX AFD from this morning already mentioning it The forecast for the middle of the week next week is a bit more uncertain at this time. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean right now, which may impact the Gulf Coast this weekend. This system will then come in our general direction by mid-week. So, will have to monitor any tropical development in the coming days and see how guidance trends in regards to any potential impacts for our region. For now though, far too many questions in the forecast to say anything for certain. For now, keeping chance POPs in Tue/Wed. Monitor hurricanes.gov for updates on the tropical weather outlook in the coming days.

I'm back and ready to win this year

Could have just borrowed one of @WxWatcher007s... I'm sure he has a few extra left over from the Panic Room lying around

Hopefully this means atmospheric memory this winter.... bah, who are we kidding?

Hodling DOGE and ADA FTW

pouring here again