yoda

Tornado warning for AA County canceled due to weaker rotation

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 517 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 MDC017-VAC061-099-153-179-292200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0313.000000T0000Z-210729T2200Z/ Charles MD-Stafford VA-King George VA-Fauquier VA-Prince William VA- 517 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR WESTERN CHARLES...STAFFORD...NORTHWESTERN KING GEORGE... SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... At 517 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of Stafford, moving east at 25 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Stafford, Quantico, Potomac Creek, Aquia Creek, Triangle, Dumfries, Cherry Hill, Widewater, Roseville, Garrisonville, Arkendale, Brooke, Ramoth, Heflin, Aquia, Storck, Glendie, Hartwood, Ruby and Somerville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds possible. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 3839 7763 3841 7764 3858 7762 3856 7726 3848 7727 3850 7728 3848 7728 3833 7729 TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 284DEG 23KT 3850 7753 HAIL...2.50IN WIND...80MPH

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 521 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Central King George County in central Virginia... The City of Fredericksburg in central Virginia... Northeastern Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 520 PM EDT, a potentially destructive severe thunderstorm was located near Fredericksburg, moving southeast at 35 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 75 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Stafford, Fredericksburg, King George, Fairview Beach, Massaponax, Spotsylvania, Falmouth, Passapatanzy, Stones Corner, Roseville, Ramoth, Thornburg, White Oak, Sealston, Jersey, Dogue, Leeland, Rollins Fork, Spring Valley and Brooke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a potentially DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds possible. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 3836 7766 3838 7764 3836 7764 3837 7762 3839 7763 3850 7752 3820 7704 3816 7707 3815 7707 3816 7709 3816 7717 3820 7722 3819 7725 3823 7725 3825 7723 3825 7727 3822 7729 3824 7729 3825 7735 3809 7754 TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 309DEG 29KT 3839 7752 HAIL...2.00IN WIND...70MPH

Never seen LWX use the "potentially destructive severe thunderstorm" wording before

Strongest SWS I've seen LWX issue since the derecho

Looks hooky down by Goldvien

Um... no thanks Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 506 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 MDC017-VAC061-099-153-179-292200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0313.000000T0000Z-210729T2200Z/ Charles MD-Stafford VA-King George VA-Fauquier VA-Prince William VA- 506 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR WESTERN CHARLES...STAFFORD...NORTHWESTERN KING GEORGE... SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... At 505 PM EDT, a potentially destructive severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of Bealeton, or 14 miles northwest of Stafford, moving east at 25 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Stafford, Quantico, Potomac Creek, Aquia Creek, Triangle, Dumfries, Cherry Hill, Midland, Roseville, Garrisonville, Ramoth, Heflin, Morrisville, Ruby, Somerville, Goldvein, Widewater, Lois, Arkendale and Brooke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds possible. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3839 7763 3841 7764 3846 7776 3858 7771 3856 7726 3848 7727 3850 7728 3848 7728 3833 7729 TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 284DEG 23KT 3852 7763 HAIL...2.50IN WIND...80MPH

Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC017-VAC061-099-153-179-292200- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0313.210729T2059Z-210729T2200Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 459 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Charles County in southern Maryland... Stafford County in northern Virginia... Northwestern King George County in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 458 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 14 miles southeast of Warrenton, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 75 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Stafford, Quantico, Potomac Creek, Aquia Creek, Triangle, Dumfries, Bealeton, Cherry Hill, Roseville, Garrisonville, Ramoth, Heflin, Morrisville, Ruby, Somerville, Goldvein, Widewater, Lois, Arkendale and Brooke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

Huge hail core in S Fauquier

That warning for the other N VA storm... yikes

Pouring here in Fairfax

Now I want crab cakes for dinner

Wouldn't be surprised if something was on the ground...

@Mrs.J is up there no? Or is that @psuhoffman?

Just got warned

SWS for Carroll County cell in MD talking it up about being extremely dangerous

Wonder if on the 1300z SPC OTLK they nudge the ENH risk SW some to include a bit more of N VA into C VA

06z NAM sounding at BWI at 00z tonight is

Don't see these from LWX too often... from last night... SWS for Albermarle County

This was the early morning disco from LWX about today FWIW NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis depicts a weak stationary front straddled northwest to southeast across the area. A stronger front and low pressure is located over the Great Lakes, with the low heading east and the front progressing southeast. Aloft, a weak shortwave is passing to the east with a second stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes. This is all embedded within a dominant northwest flow as a longwave trough remains to our northeast, and a ridge sits over the central Plains. Showers early this morning associated with the departing shortwave should dissipate shortly. The clouds and increased moisture over the region have kept temps in the higher 60s to lower 70s. This relatively high starting point will give us a boost, but clouds moving in from the MCS to our northwest will start overspreading the area this morning. This MCS likely will greatly affect our severe weather threat today as the strong shortwave and cold front moves into the region. If the MCS impact is minimal, with cloud cover relatively thin and brief and minimal if any showers, then our odds of a significant severe weather outbreak will be quite high thanks to ample CAPE combined with the high shear moving overhead. However, if the MCS holds together more and we have extended cloud cover and more showers/weakening storms, the high CAPE component will be harder to come by, which could potentially significantly damper the severe weather potential. Will need to watch progress of the system closely. Right now, areas least likely to be affected by the morning MCS appear to be the Baltimore area and points north and east, where an enhanced risk of severe weather is now in place from the SPC. This risk tapers to slight and then marginal further south and west, where the MCS influence is likely to be more substantial. Highs likely reach the mid-upper 80s, perhaps with spotty 90s, with higher temps of course more likely to fuel stronger storms later today. Best timing for storms looks to be very late afternoon and evening across the metro, assuming the MCS doesn`t disrupt CAPE too much.

Meanwhile in Albemarle County last night

Zones include severe wording with damaging winds and large hail

Some PDS TOR soundings on 00z NAM across the region FWIW

So about the 00z NAM soundings across the region from 21z to 03z... 00z NAM sounding for 00z tonight at KIAD = Yes, I know the usual caveats... but you don't see those everyday around here

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado, will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. ...Northeast through Middle Atlantic area... Upper pattern in this region will be characterized by a broad trough today. MCV/shortwave trough embedded within the synoptic trough will move from the lower Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic. At the surface a warm front will move northward through the Middle Atlantic, while a cold front advances southeast, reaching PA and the central Appalachians by evening. Thunderstorms should be in progress at the start of the period in association with the MCV over the southern portion of the Great Lakes. Other storms may be ongoing in the warm-advection regime north of the warm front over a portion of the Middle Atlantic. Widespread multi-layer clouds may precede the warm front. However, the warm sector should become moderately unstable during the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by the advection of richer low-level moisture and pockets of diabatic heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in association with ascent attending the southeast-moving MCV as well as along the southeast-advancing cold front. This area will reside within belt of stronger mid-upper flow associated with the synoptic trough supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some supercells may evolve along with line segments with bowing structures as activity develops southeast during the afternoon into the evening. Primary threat appears to be damaging wind and possibly some hail, though low-level hodographs will be sufficient for a few tornadoes, especially if sufficient instability can develop in vicinity of the warm front.