yoda

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0321 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1219 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 101616Z - 102215Z SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across the northern Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be common, but locally higher rates can not be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery through 1545Z showed an expanding cumulus field within an otherwise mostly clear environment across the Delmarva Peninsula into MD and southeastern PA. A few showers and thunderstorms have also popped up on regional radar imagery over northern Delaware Bay and along the Catocin Mountains of northern MD into the Appalachian chain of southern PA. PWATs within the pre-convective environment are 1.7 to 2.0 inches and 850-200 mb mean-layer flow is very weak across the entire region at less than 10 kt, which will support slow storm motions. Little CIN on the 12Z soundings from WAL and IAD suggest storm coverage will continue to increase with daytime heating with the front and local terrain acting as sources for lift. In addition, locally stronger easterly flow just behind the cold front may help to support near-stationary convection along the terrain of northern VA into northwestern MD and southern PA. Given the lack of speed shear with height, storms should not be organized in nature or long-lasting, but they should be rather efficient with rainfall production given high wet bulb zero heights of roughly 13 kft. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are very likely with localized rainfall rates up to 3 in/hr possible. In fact, rainfall rates from the HRRR support 1-2 inches of rain in 15 to 30 minutes which seems reasonable given the moist environment. Portions of the Delmarva into southern MD and southeastern PA received heavy rainfall yesterday and will be more susceptible to localized flash flooding today. While flash flooding is not expected to be widespread across the entire region, scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall with several areas at risk for flash flooding, including the urban I-95 corridor from south of D.C. into northern DE with 2-4 inches expected through 22Z. Otto ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0321&yr=2021

LWX putting more counties in the FFW

Don't know if this had been posted yet... but Bernstein is retiring from WUSA9 weather... his last day was yesterday

No sprinkler?

Looks like June 6, 2020 (the 0100z SPC OTLK technically) was last time MOD risk was issued in the Dakotas/Montana... June 18, 2018 looks like the one before that No MOD risk issued on the 1300 SPC OTLK... but disco mentions potential wind driven one could be issued later

Sunny morning sky outside... better lead to some good storms this afternoon

Is this before the change to rain or before the 850 0C isotherm goes blasting by?

Pretty sure this is a made up in his mind theory

You get a FFW! Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ027-028-030-031- 052>054-501-505-506-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-101500- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0002.210610T1600Z-210611T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Waldorf, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Purcellville, Bayard, Sterling, Columbia, Ashburn, Mount Jackson, Front Royal, Leesburg, Russelldale, Grantsville, Lexington Park, Frostburg, Lusby, Montclair, Alexandria, Paw Paw, Washington, Warrenton, Franconia, Ridgeville, Mount Storm, Charles Town, Winchester, Damascus, Petersburg, Chantilly, Ballenger Creek, Huntingtown, College Park, Chesapeake Beach, Greenbelt, McLean, St. Charles, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Mountain Lake Park, Eldersburg, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Strasburg, Elk Garden, Odenton, Woodstock, Bethesda, Prince Frederick, Centreville, Camp Springs, California, Germantown, Rockville, Hagerstown, North Beach, Fort Ashby, Falls Church, Severn, Ellicott City, Annandale, Cockeysville, Gaithersburg, Headsville, Shepherdstown, Cumberland, Herndon, Annapolis, Keyser, Martinsburg, Westminster, Antioch, Dunkirk, Moorefield, Reisterstown, New Market, Severna Park, Berryville, Frederick, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Manassas, Reston, Baltimore, New Creek, Woodbridge, Romney, Lisbon, and Oakland 253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC...Maryland...Virginia and West Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Eastern Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD, Garrett, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys and Washington. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Northern Fauquier, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant and Western Mineral. * From Noon EDT today through this evening * A cold front will drop southward into the area today. This front will become the focus for slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Because of the slow motion and ample moisture in the atmosphere, storms may drop 2 to 4 inches of rain a short period of time, resulting in flash flooding. * Heavy rainfall in a short amount of time can result in rapid rises of water in streams, creeks, and urban areas.

Afternoon LWX AFD says Monday maybe...

I do like the name of our newest member to the forum

This guy?

DCA 102 IAD 100 BWI 102 RIC 104

When there is a thunderstorm ongoing with heavy pouring rain, he/she will show up

Mappy was testing his maps... guess he failed lol

Today's SPC morning outlook disco

surprise Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 NCC061-022145- /O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210602T2145Z/ Duplin NC- 531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN COUNTY... At 528 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Rose Hill, or 7 miles northeast of Wallace, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. At 515 PM, damage was reported near Teachey. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Beulaville, Sarecta and Greenevers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Thought I read somewhere that technically the Fujita scale went from 0-12 like the Beaufort scale?

EF6 here we come

Afternoon AFD has no mention of anything for Friday at all... but interesting tidbit about tonight into early tomorrow in there... @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

Could be changed in tonight's new Day 2

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary threat. Other strong to severe storms with locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as well as eastern Oregon. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will push through the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of the boundary, moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. In the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will impact the region by late afternoon into the evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre-frontal confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. There remain uncertainties as to where the greatest boundary layer destabilization will occur given cloud cover within the warm conveyor belt as well as warm advection precipitation in North Carolina/southern Virginia. Forecast soundings indicate a greater potential for cloud breaks from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. This area will also see a modest increase in 850 mb flow by afternoon/evening which will increase the threat for damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Father north into eastern New York/Vermont, there is less certainty on the degree of destabilization, but relatively strong mid-level forcing should promote scattered storms with some attendant threat for wind damage. Mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, but where greater buoyancy develops isolated large hail will be possible.

Yeah that sucks for the 76ers... but I think they win tonight. Probably be bounced next round anyway... Wizards have lost Bertans for the postseason as well. I expect a 76ers win by 10+ tonight

2/5/15 on 1730 SPC update... 5% hail is new. Also moved the SLGT risk line west of the i81 corridor

Maybe we get lucky and we get a two day event before we go dry? Please?